http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/world/americas/14argentina.html?sq=Argentina President Overcoming Doldrums&st=cse&scp=1&pagewanted=all
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Times Topic: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
“Let the symbol of Evita be a symbol for the unity of all Argentines,” Mrs. Kirchner said at the unveiling of the portrait, which was her idea.
Mrs. Kirchner may never achieve the popularity of Mrs. Peron, an actress who married President Juan Perón and became beloved for fighting for social justice before dying of cancer in 1952. But she is fighting to be mentioned in the same breath one day and may have more of a chance now that she appears to be heading toward re-election in October, aided by a splintered opposition and a growing economy that is overshadowing previous concerns about her polarizing leadership style.
The first real test of Mrs. Kirchner’s chances — and of analysts’ predictions that she will win handily — will come Sunday, when the country holds a national primary. Voting is mandatory, and people are allowed to cast their ballots for members of any party, so the results should provide a good indicator of whether Mrs. Kirchner could win Oct. 23 and avoid a runoff.
According to several recent polls, Mrs. Kirchner, 58, is expected to get enough votes to secure a second four-year term without going to a runoff. Her nearest competitor in the polls is Ricardo Alfonsín, a congressman from the Radical Civic Union Party, who appears to be trailing badly.
“The lack of a strong opposition candidate has created the feeling that she is invincible,” said Graciela Romer, a political analyst in Buenos Aires.
The change in perception represents a stunning turnaround for Mrs. Kirchner, who just two years ago seemed a long shot to be re-elected, in part because she clashed with one of the country’s most powerful interests: farmers. But after her husband, former President Néstor Kirchner, died in October, Mrs. Kirchner rode a wave of sympathy and has seen her popularity surge to a record high.
Still, recent losses by candidates from her center-left wing of the Peronist Party in municipal elections in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe — and an inability to field a candidate in an election for governor last Sunday in Cordoba — have shown that anti-Kirchner sentiment remains strong in some quarters, particularly among rural voters. The mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, won re-election last month with 64 percent of the vote, easily defeating Mrs. Kirchner’s candidate, Daniel Filmus.
The president has also lost backing from many traditional Peronists for steering to the left and for her antibusiness remarks. They have also been troubled that she has filled her ballot with young people who have risen out of her La Cámpora movement, run by her son Máximo, and who support her policy of taxing exports to support social welfare programs. (In Argentina, during presidential elections, candidates for the legislature run on a party ticket with the presidential candidate.)
Federico MacDougall, an economist and political analyst at the University of Belgrano in Buenos Aires, said that while Mrs. Kirchner was currently “cruising” toward victory, relying so heavily on La Cámpora could backfire if it drives away more conservative Peronists.
In the end, most analysts believe that neither the loss of some party support nor the losses suffered by Mrs. Kirchner’s candidates in local elections will significantly affect her chances.
“These are local elections defined mostly by local dynamics,” said Daniel Kerner, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.
The bigger reason to bet on Mrs. Kirchner, analysts say, is the roaring Argentine economy, which has grown at an average of 8 percent in recent years, with low unemployment and with wage increases — thanks to unions closely aligned with the president — that continue to roughly keep pace with the high rate of inflation. (Private analysts have estimated the rate to be more than 20 percent, while the government says it is less than half as high.)
Mrs. Kirchner effectively continued the economic policies set by her husband, including keeping a relatively cheap peso to make exports more competitive and retaining heavy subsidies on food and fuel to encourage consumer spending. Opposition candidates, including Mr. Alfonsín, the son of former President Raúl Alfonsín, and former President Eduardo Duhalde, have so far failed to persuade Argentines they could offer a more successful economic strategy.
Even with higher prices for goods at home as a result of inflation, Argentines have felt they have more purchasing power abroad, especially as inflation outpaces any gains in relative currency values, and many middle-class Argentines once again have the money to travel to Miami or New York.
Mrs. Kirchner’s earlier troubles started even before she was elected. Her reputation suffered after the discovery of a suitcase filled with $800,000 that American prosecutors say was campaign contributions from Venezuelan officials, though no evidence ever surfaced that she had direct knowledge of the money or the intent of those who collected it. Analysts said her popularity continued to slide during a protracted battle with farmers over agricultural taxes and after moves to nationalize private pension funds in what many saw as an effort to bolster state coffers. Those episodes caused her approval rating to plummet below 30 percent, deepened her reputation as a heavy-handed, combative leader, and scared off many foreign investors.
Mrs. Kirchner refocused her efforts after her husband — who was widely considered to be unofficially managing economic policy — suffered a humiliating defeat in elections for a congressional seat. She continued a battle against the media giant Grupo Clarín, for instance, but since his death she seemed to soften her tone, re-inspiring supporters and persuading independents to back her, analysts said.
“After Néstor died, that conflictive part of her government disappeared and she was on her own, and people began to fantasize that Cristina would begin to assume the role she had promised in the campaign of 2007,” Ms. Romer, the analyst, said. Those promises included maintaining the country’s positive economic performance while expanding social programs, fighting for human rights and improving income distribution, she said. Mrs. Kirchner has begun to make good on her promises.
Still, many in the business community are not cheering the prospect of her re-election. High inflation has hurt the economy’s competitiveness, imports are rising rapidly and energy problems are mounting from the lack of foreign investment.
Worries about long-term stability remain high enough that some are betting against the economy. Mr. Kerner said that much of the money that is coming into the country from exports is leaving in the form of capital flight of about $2 billion a month. “The model is operating under a lot of stress and is starting to collapse,” he said.
But economists have been incorrectly predicting the collapse of the Argentine economy for several years, and Argentines, in any case, are not known for taking a long view. Most seem to favor maintaining the economic status quo, Mr. Kerner said, and “no one thinks anyone else can do it better” than Mrs. Kirchner.
Mrs. Kirchner may never achieve the popularity of Mrs. Peron, an actress who married President Juan Perón and became beloved for fighting for social justice before dying of cancer in 1952. But she is fighting to be mentioned in the same breath one day and may have more of a chance now that she appears to be heading toward re-election in October, aided by a splintered opposition and a growing economy that is overshadowing previous concerns about her polarizing leadership style.
The first real test of Mrs. Kirchner’s chances — and of analysts’ predictions that she will win handily — will come Sunday, when the country holds a national primary. Voting is mandatory, and people are allowed to cast their ballots for members of any party, so the results should provide a good indicator of whether Mrs. Kirchner could win Oct. 23 and avoid a runoff.
According to several recent polls, Mrs. Kirchner, 58, is expected to get enough votes to secure a second four-year term without going to a runoff. Her nearest competitor in the polls is Ricardo Alfonsín, a congressman from the Radical Civic Union Party, who appears to be trailing badly.
“The lack of a strong opposition candidate has created the feeling that she is invincible,” said Graciela Romer, a political analyst in Buenos Aires.
The change in perception represents a stunning turnaround for Mrs. Kirchner, who just two years ago seemed a long shot to be re-elected, in part because she clashed with one of the country’s most powerful interests: farmers. But after her husband, former President Néstor Kirchner, died in October, Mrs. Kirchner rode a wave of sympathy and has seen her popularity surge to a record high.
Still, recent losses by candidates from her center-left wing of the Peronist Party in municipal elections in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe — and an inability to field a candidate in an election for governor last Sunday in Cordoba — have shown that anti-Kirchner sentiment remains strong in some quarters, particularly among rural voters. The mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, won re-election last month with 64 percent of the vote, easily defeating Mrs. Kirchner’s candidate, Daniel Filmus.
The president has also lost backing from many traditional Peronists for steering to the left and for her antibusiness remarks. They have also been troubled that she has filled her ballot with young people who have risen out of her La Cámpora movement, run by her son Máximo, and who support her policy of taxing exports to support social welfare programs. (In Argentina, during presidential elections, candidates for the legislature run on a party ticket with the presidential candidate.)
Federico MacDougall, an economist and political analyst at the University of Belgrano in Buenos Aires, said that while Mrs. Kirchner was currently “cruising” toward victory, relying so heavily on La Cámpora could backfire if it drives away more conservative Peronists.
In the end, most analysts believe that neither the loss of some party support nor the losses suffered by Mrs. Kirchner’s candidates in local elections will significantly affect her chances.
“These are local elections defined mostly by local dynamics,” said Daniel Kerner, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.
The bigger reason to bet on Mrs. Kirchner, analysts say, is the roaring Argentine economy, which has grown at an average of 8 percent in recent years, with low unemployment and with wage increases — thanks to unions closely aligned with the president — that continue to roughly keep pace with the high rate of inflation. (Private analysts have estimated the rate to be more than 20 percent, while the government says it is less than half as high.)
Mrs. Kirchner effectively continued the economic policies set by her husband, including keeping a relatively cheap peso to make exports more competitive and retaining heavy subsidies on food and fuel to encourage consumer spending. Opposition candidates, including Mr. Alfonsín, the son of former President Raúl Alfonsín, and former President Eduardo Duhalde, have so far failed to persuade Argentines they could offer a more successful economic strategy.
Even with higher prices for goods at home as a result of inflation, Argentines have felt they have more purchasing power abroad, especially as inflation outpaces any gains in relative currency values, and many middle-class Argentines once again have the money to travel to Miami or New York.
Mrs. Kirchner’s earlier troubles started even before she was elected. Her reputation suffered after the discovery of a suitcase filled with $800,000 that American prosecutors say was campaign contributions from Venezuelan officials, though no evidence ever surfaced that she had direct knowledge of the money or the intent of those who collected it. Analysts said her popularity continued to slide during a protracted battle with farmers over agricultural taxes and after moves to nationalize private pension funds in what many saw as an effort to bolster state coffers. Those episodes caused her approval rating to plummet below 30 percent, deepened her reputation as a heavy-handed, combative leader, and scared off many foreign investors.
Mrs. Kirchner refocused her efforts after her husband — who was widely considered to be unofficially managing economic policy — suffered a humiliating defeat in elections for a congressional seat. She continued a battle against the media giant Grupo Clarín, for instance, but since his death she seemed to soften her tone, re-inspiring supporters and persuading independents to back her, analysts said.
“After Néstor died, that conflictive part of her government disappeared and she was on her own, and people began to fantasize that Cristina would begin to assume the role she had promised in the campaign of 2007,” Ms. Romer, the analyst, said. Those promises included maintaining the country’s positive economic performance while expanding social programs, fighting for human rights and improving income distribution, she said. Mrs. Kirchner has begun to make good on her promises.
Still, many in the business community are not cheering the prospect of her re-election. High inflation has hurt the economy’s competitiveness, imports are rising rapidly and energy problems are mounting from the lack of foreign investment.
Worries about long-term stability remain high enough that some are betting against the economy. Mr. Kerner said that much of the money that is coming into the country from exports is leaving in the form of capital flight of about $2 billion a month. “The model is operating under a lot of stress and is starting to collapse,” he said.
But economists have been incorrectly predicting the collapse of the Argentine economy for several years, and Argentines, in any case, are not known for taking a long view. Most seem to favor maintaining the economic status quo, Mr. Kerner said, and “no one thinks anyone else can do it better” than Mrs. Kirchner.
