Jack's Thoughts On The Covid-19 Threat

Dear:

     Your Saturday morning newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

     The only hopeful note here is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19:

https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php

      The Israelis have an incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best.

       One disturbing model has emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of 2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million.

    On a personal level, everyone needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of you who are medical professionals are especially at risk.

    The world economy will sink into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is such an event.

These are trying times!

Be careful out there!

A Japanese Swordsmith In Brasil

Invictus

Keeping traditions alive is not an easy commitment, but Edson Suemitsu, a Brazilian with Japanese heritage, has dedicated more than 40 years of his life to maintaining the craft of his forefathers, Reuters reported.

In a country known for its beaches, soccer and flamboyant carnivals, the 61-year-old is Brazil’s only full-time katana swordsmith.

Dubbed the country’s “last samurai,” Suemitsu has been making a living by forging katanas, a type of curved sword used by the noble samurai in ancient Japan.

He became interested in the craft after seeing his Japanese-born grandfather creating blades as tools to fight venomous snakes at their frontier farm in southern Brazil.

He later picked up the art of making katanas through extensive trial and error, and the laborious method proved fruitful.

In four decades Suemitsu has forged around 1,000 swords ranging in price from about $1,400 to $4,500, and has clients from all over the world.

But the process it not easy: He works alone for long days and weekends to produce three swords a month.

Despite the challenges, the master swordsmith has no plans to retire or find someone to pass the torch to.

“I don’t know if I’ll have successors because the work is very complex,” he said. “It can’t be for the money, it has to be for the heart.”

Click here to see his craft.

Praia Linda do Brasil - Florianopolis - Praia Brava

Chile: Contest Of Our Time

CHILE

Contest of Our Time

Free marketeers have long considered Chile a darling among South American countries due to its reputation as conservative, pro-business and stable.

But recently one of the country’s best-known exports has been a feminist protest song called “The Rapist Is You,” the Guardian reported. The song is a critique of patriarchy. It also is a sign of how many Chileans don’t like where their country is going.

At least 27 people have died in protests that erupted in Chile in October, Al Jazeera wrote. The civil unrest was triggered by a hike in metro fare costs. But the demonstrations now target President Sebastian Pinera, a billionaire whom many Chileans view as a symbol of the economic inequality that has marked the country in recent years.

Students have disrupted the Chilean version of SAT tests, saying the college-entrance exams are unfair because wealthier students perform better, Time wrote. A victim of sexual abuse who courageously went public against the Catholic Church in Chile is launching a new political party, called Dignity, to fight against inequality and rising costs, Reuters reported.

Despite Chile’s pro-business image, corruption is widespread. Solid evidence suggested that lawmakers received bribes to enact a fishery law that gave monopoly rights to politically connected elites, for example. Yet the law passed, enriching the rich. Such corruption costs Chileans around $5 billion a year in uncollected taxes and other lost revenues, according to Pro-Market, a blog produced by the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Pinera has taken action. He halted the metro fare hikes, raised pensions, hired and fired cabinet members, launched health care reforms and agreed to schedule an April referendum on whether or not to rewrite the country’s constitution, a document adopted in 1980 when a military junta ran the country.

The protests continue, however. People appear to want more than tweaked government policies.

“One of the main challenges, inequality, won’t be solved with simply approving a new constitution,” said Pablo Villoch, who teaches business at Chilean universities, in an interview with the Washington Post. “But I think this is a historic opportunity to get closer to a system that is more socially cohesive.”

Chile’s travails are common throughout the world, argued writer Ariel Dorfman in a New York Times op-ed. Impatient, frustrated and tech savvy folks, often young folks, are challenging a political, social and economic system that appears slanted in favor of the rich who, absent protests, have few incentives to give up their power.

In Chile and elsewhere, this contest doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game. But it might turn out to be one.

The Rush to Save Argentina's Malbec

The Rush to Save Argentina's Malbec