Monday, October 31, 2016

Argentines Fearful As THe President Wages War On Drug Traffickers


Argentines fearful as president wages ‘war’ on drug traffickers

Insecurity has now displaced inflation as number one concern
© STR/AFP/Getty
After a federal court in a gritty suburb of Buenos Aires was burnt down this month, a sinister message in cut-out newspaper letters was found ordering the provincial governor to “stay away”. There was just one word beneath the terse warning: “drugs”. 
Thousands of miles south of Mexico, a country traumatised by drug cartel violence, there are signs of escalating tensions in Argentina after President Mauricio Macriearlier this year declared a “war” on trafficking. Mr Macri this month sent armed border police into the most crime-ridden areas of Buenos Aires. 
Insecurity has now displaced inflation as Argentina’s number one concern, thanks in part to Mr Macri’s progress in fixing economic problems inherited from former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Narcotics gangs, increasingly from Colombia and Mexico, are using Argentina as a transit point to export more than 70 tonnes of cocaine a year to markets in Europe and Asia. 
Homicide rates fuelled by gang fighting have tripled over the past decade in the worst-hit areas, such as the port city of Rosario.
There is a growing regional consensus that the “war on drugs” has failed — with pioneering Uruguay legalising cannabis — and many fear that the centre-right Mr Macri is courting danger by adopting a militarised approach to solving a problem largely neglected by his predecessor.
“It is ironic and tragic that Argentina has not learnt from this regional and international debate, and is now reverting back to [militarised] policies that have failed,” says Coletta Youngers, a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America, who worries that a new government in Peru may be making a similar mistake.

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However, Eugenio Burzaco, Argentina’s security secretary, rejects accusations that his government is waging a war on drugs, which he dismisses as “a cliché from the 1980s” that “nobody believes in”.
“For 12 years [the Kirchners] did nothing. Both the local consumption and the trafficking of drugs has doubled or even tripled.” Mr Burzaco blames the previous government for failing to stop the advance of drug traffickers who co-opted police, judges and politicians.
Although it may be appropriate to use the military in “specific activities” such as shooting down aircraft suspected of smuggling drugs — a policy adopted by Mr Macri earlier this year — Mr Burzaco says he is against the use of the armed forces for resolving urban conflicts.
“It hasn’t worked well in Mexico,” he says, adding that it is “not too late” to prevent cartels from getting out of control. 
“We have to focus on all fronts, not just demand and not just supply. It requires an integrated solution,” he says, pointing to a wide-ranging initiative launched in August that enjoyed cross-party support. 
There is no drug trafficker that can operate without the endorsement of the police anywhere in Argentina
Marcelo Sain, a former vice-minister for security for Buenos Aires province
Some argue for a medical approach to the drugs problem.
“There is no justice for the poor,” says Alicia Romero, who runs a group of mothers that looks after a swelling number of addicts of “paco” — a cheap form of cocaine that is smoked — that plague the streets of Buenos Aires like “the living dead”. “The lives of our boys are at stake,” she says. 
Ms Romero argues that the state and society at large are not interested in the plight of these young men, only in the cycle of violence created by the drugs trade.
Marcelo Bergman, a security expert, says that despite its modern image, Mr Macri’s conservative government is ideologically predisposed to treating drugs mainly as a security issue. There is no energy devoted to programmes for reducing demand or treating addicts, he claims. 
“The government is in a trap. It wants to fight drugs and it doesn’t have the equipment or the law enforcement capacity to do so,” says Mr Bergman. After the previous government left Argentina without “basic equipment” to control the borders and make drug seizures, he says that Mr Macri has been forced to resort to using the militarised national gendarmerie, and sometimes the army itself, to enforce the law. 
Alejandro Corda, a lawyer who specialises in drug policy, argues that “it sells much better to be belligerent than innovative”.
“Argentine politicians, not just this government, like to take a combative stance against narcotrafficking, as they think it produces good electoral results,” he says, pointing to important midterm legislative elections next year. 
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, a political scientist, says complicating matters is “an extremely profound crisis in the justice system, which has led to an environment of great impunity and corruption”. 
Marcelo Sain, a former vice-minister for security for Buenos Aires province, claims that the government is also continuing the practice of its predecessors of turning a blind eye and allowing the police to regulate the drugs market — as long as peace on the streets is ensured.
“There is no drug trafficker that can operate without the endorsement of the police anywhere in Argentina,” he says. 

Friday, October 28, 2016

FT Lat Am For Friday October 28, 2016

7:56 AM (1 hour ago)
to me
A tale of two continents
By Joe Leahy 
October 27, 2016
Populism may be largely on the run in the Southern Cone of Latin America dominated by Argentina and Brazil. But in Venezuela, socialist president Nicolás Maduro can appear to be hanging on with his fingernails to power.  After curbing an attempt to hold a referendum on his unpopular rule, the successor to Hugo Chávez this week faced mass protests from opposition leaders who claim he is running a dictatorship.
In initially largely peaceful protests, the opposition called for a general strike and threatened to march on the presidential palace next week. But the 53-year-old Maduro is not flummoxed. He knows he cannot easily be legally removed as the constitution does not allow for impeachment.
Of course, a revolution is possible, since he is so unpopular, with 90 per cent of Venezuelans believing the country is going in the wrong direction amid triple-digit inflation and food shortages. But he has the Supreme Court on his side and the army. He also kept foreign investors off his back this week when lenders to Venezuela’s national oil company PDVSA, narrowly agreed to a debt swap.
Elsewhere on the continent, Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s new president, is reaping the rewards of pro-business policy-making by embarking on a debt extravaganza. Less than a year ago, Argentina was facing a balance of payments crisis after 12 years of populism. This year, the country has stormed back onto capital markets with public entities issuing $40bn of debt, half of it in foreign currency. Investors are betting that the economy will return to growth of 3-4 per cent next year after an expected contraction of 2 per cent in 2016. 
Across the border in Brazil, populism is largely on the retreat following the August impeachment of leftist former president Dilma Rousseff. But while she has been replaced with a pro-business federal government, in Rio de Janeiro an evangelical gospel singer looks likely to win municipal elections this Sunday. The candidate, Marcelo Crivella, wrote in the 1990s of how other Christian denominations have demonic rituals and Hindus drink the blood of their children. He has since disowned these views, but his rise is a sign of the growing weight of alternative sources of power in Brazilian politics, such as the evangelical churches.
Quote of the Week
“They needed whatever cash the market was willing to offer. PDVSA made a lot of noise and threats but at the end of the day they have no leverage. This was credit at market terms” - Siobhan Morden of Nomura 
Chart of the Week
EMSquared Chile: loosening up (Premium)
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The week in review
Venezuela’s mass street protest calls for general strike
Thousands mobilise after suspension of referendum seeking to oust President Maduro
Argentina’s debt bonanza buys time, raises risks
Aggressive borrowing by government meant to secure financial cushion for reforms
The Business of Tequila
Connoisseurs drive growth at the expense of the headache-inducing low end
Embraer to pay $205m after US-Brazil bribery probe
Plane maker settles claims it paid millions of dollars to secure government contracts
New tequila and mezcal regulations upset local producers
Rules threaten local history and culture, say small distilleries
Chinese liquor lovers are not taking to tequila
Baijiu is still the preferred spirit in China
Tequila-makers carefully plan agave harvest to keep prices down
Brands are more self-reliant about the supply of raw material
Venezuela’s PDVSA wins short-term relief with bond swap
PDVSA bags bond swap but doubts remain
Chile: loosening up
Interest rates are headed lower, setting the stage for economic revival
Brazil’s evangelicals push politics to the right
Former missionary set to become next mayor of Rio
Venezuela suspends anti-Maduro referendum
Opposition cries foul as officials suspend vote to remove leader
Brazil faces budget disaster, says speaker
Michel Temer’s government is trying to cap spending as deficit reaches 10% of GDP