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Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Argentina's Runoff Election is November 19!

 

Cry For Me

ARGENTINA

Argentina is headed for a presidential runoff after the two top vote-getters – the economy minister and a right-wing legislator – failed to garner enough support to win the election outright, the BBC reported Monday.

The favorite, Javier Milei, a brash libertarian congressman who rallied young voters enraged at a Peronista government that has struggled against the country’s worst economic crisis in two decades, was widely expected to lead the first round of voting Sunday.

Instead, former lawmaker Sergio Massa, who has been warning of the impacts of a possible Milei presidency, took the lead with 36 percent of the vote to Milei’s 30 percent. Massa, the minister overseeing the crumbling economy, had portrayed himself as the moderate and pragmatic leader the country needs, one where 40 percent live in poverty and prices increase every week.

The runoff election, to be held Nov. 19, will essentially pit the establishment left against a man who has vowed to destroy it, the Washington Post wrote.

With the peso currency plummeting and inflation at nearly 140 percent, a large swath of voters in this nation of 46 million have demanded change. In Milei, an admirer of former US president Donald Trump, they found a candidate who promises to blow up the entire system. Running on attacks against the country’s political “caste,” he has proposed shutting down the central bank, dollarizing the economy and taking a “chain saw” to government spending.

His attacks on the peso sent shock waves through the economy. Days after his primary win, the peso collapsed and inflation spiked.

Still, in a country where public services are heavily subsidized, and where the leftist party of former leaders Juan and Eva “Evita” Peron has dominated politics for decades, many were unwilling to gamble on Milei.

But Massa, who finished third in the 2015 presidential election, is also a problematic candidate, analysts said. While he has tried to distance himself from the unpopular administration of President Alberto Fernández following the primaries, Massa pledged to expand welfare benefits for large segments of the population – and slash income taxes.

That would likely threaten a deal with the International Monetary Fund that calls for cuts to government spending.

Fernández opted out of running for reelection.


Thursday, October 19, 2023

Brasil: Criminal Charges For Former President Jair Bolsonaro

Presumed Guilty

BRAZIL

A Brazilian congressional probe found that former populist President Jair Bolsonaro should face criminal charges for plotting a coup in response to losing the 2022 presidential elections to leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bloomberg reported.

The findings are part of a report by Senator Eliziane Gama, who is leading the investigation into the riots that ransacked the country’s main governmental bodies in the capital Brasilia earlier this year.

Gama’s report also recommended that the former leader should be indicted on three other charges related to the Brasilia riots on Jan. 8 that saw thousands of Bolsonaro supporters storming government buildings, including the presidential palace and supreme court, in a bid to undermine Lula’s victory.

The report asserts the former president was the “author” of the attempted insurrection, while also accusing other top members of his cabinet and senior military officials of participating in efforts to overturn the election result.

Bolsonaro and those officials have not commented on the charges.

The congressional committee, comprising members from both houses of parliament, voted its approval of the report Wednesday by 20 votes to 11, passing it without any amendments, Reuters reported. It will be up to the Brazilian police whether to pursue indictments based on the committee’s recommendations.

The Jan. 8 riots have been described as the most explicit assault on Brazil’s democratic structures since a military coup in 1964 gave rise to a 20-year military dictatorship.

Bolsonaro has to date never formally conceded the election, following almost a year of questioning the legitimacy of Brazil’s electoral system. Shortly before Lula’s inauguration on Jan. 1, the conservative leader left Brazil and remained in the US for three months.

He has denied any responsibility for the riots. Meanwhile, he is currently facing legal troubles both related and unrelated to the election.

In June, Brazil’s electoral court barred him from holding office for eight years over his claims during a meeting with foreign ambassadors that the country’s voting system was vulnerable to manipulation.

 

Argentina: Wild Gyrations Ahead Of The October 22 Election

 

Twirl, Dip and Turn

ARGENTINA

Argentina’s financial markets reeled in August after presidential candidate Javier Milei won the largest share in the primary election – 30 percent – on a platform of radically cutting spending and using the American currency in place of the Argentine peso, a practice that Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, and other states also currently employ to stabilize their economies.

As the Financial Times reported, after Milei’s win, to bolster the peso amid this criticism, Argentina’s Central Bank devalued its currency by 18 percent to 350 pesos per dollar and raised interest rates by 21 percentage points to 118 percent. Inflation was running above 115 percent. Forty percent of Argentines live in poverty, incidentally.

Since then, Milei has surged in the polls. Today he is the favorite to win the Oct. 22 election, though the competition between him and his two other leading contenders for the Casa Rosada, the Argentine president’s executive mansion, is fierce, according to Reuters.

In the meantime, however, Argentina’s peso fell to a record low in early October, to 1,000 per US dollar on black markets that offer so-called “dollar blue” rates, the Buenos Aires Times noted. Greenbacks trade at 365 pesos via the Central Bank – but access to foreign currency is extremely limited. Inflation rose to as high as 124 percent in that week.

And last week, a prosecutor launched a criminal case against Milei for deliberately causing a drop in the Argentine currency when he encouraged citizens not to save in pesos. Milei countered that the move was political persecution.

At the same time, incumbent President Alberto Fernandez, who opted not to seek reelection, criticized Milei for deploying rhetoric that hurt the peso’s value. Milei responded by saying Fernandez and other politicians who represent entrenched interests should look in the mirror if they wanted to hold someone responsible for the economic crisis afflicting the country, reported the Associated Press. He wants to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina altogether, of course.

Meanwhile, embracing comparisons between former American President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Milei has denied the role of humans in climate change, criticized the pope – an Argentine, no less – and pledged to ban abortion. He also wants to legalize the sale of human organs, the New York Times reported, saying he believes that a free market in organs would produce a better system for organ transplants than the current one, explained MercoPress, which reports on Latin America.

Argentinians might be receptive to Milei’s radical program because they, like him, say their elites have failed to deliver on the economic promise that democracy was supposed to have delivered after Argentina replaced military juntas and the Peron family with free and fair elections in the early 1980s, wrote Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a former chief economist at the Central Bank of Argentina, in the Americas Quarterly.

The people are hungry, for sustenance and solutions.


Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Ecuador Elects A New President

 

Times-a-Changin’

ECUADOR

The heir to a banana empire won Ecuador’s presidential election this week, following a poll that was plagued by political assassinations and drug-fueled gang violence, the Washington Post reported.

Daniel Noboa defeated his rival, Luisa González, a former leftist lawmaker loyal to former President Rafael Correa, in a runoff vote. At 36 years of age, Noboa will become Ecuador’s youngest president.

Noboa’s election comes at a time of increased youth participation in politics and a desire for new leadership to address pressing issues, including job opportunities and security.

The president-elect – who also served in the country’s legislature – campaigned on a platform to tackle Ecuador’s security crisis by overhauling the prisons’ governing body and establishing a centralized intelligence unit. González, meanwhile, vowed to restore some Correa-era ministries and address the main causes of crime through social programs.

The election outcome comes as Ecuador – a peaceful country just a few years ago – has become a crucial transit node for narcotics and descended into a de facto warzone as rival gangs vie for dominance. The violence has contributed to a surge in migration to the United States.

The violence also spilled into the election, when presidential candidate and former lawmaker, Fernando Villavicencio, was fatally shot days before the first round of voting on Aug. 20. Earlier this month, seven suspects in his killing were found dead in prison.

Analysts say, meanwhile, that Noboa will face a challenging task in tackling the violence in Ecuador: He is expected to serve as a caretaker president, completing the remaining 18 months of outgoing President Guillermo Lasso’s term.

In May, Lasso avoided impeachment by dissolving the legislature, a constitutional move that enabled him to rule by decree but required a new election within six months. Lasso opted not to run for re-election.

Meanwhile, political commentators said that Noboa’s victory also signals a rejection of the socialist, pro-Correa party that still remains a force in the South American nation.

Correa, who lives in exile in Belgium, is both praised for combating inequality and reviled for his authoritarian tendencies. He was sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison on bribery charges.


Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Chile The Barnes House