Dirty politics as usual as Brazil’s election campaigns heat up - FT.com:
'via Blog this'
Apologies for the corny footballing metaphor, but I think that, on balance, Brazilians still perceive their economy to be "winning" with Dilma as manager. Yes, as laid out repeatedly in the FT, there are various poor indicators coming in; and watching from the sidelines we can see the long-term folly of Dilma's failure to make the economic reforms the country needs. However for Dilma to be discredited in the eyes of the Brazilian electorate, they need to concede some economic "goals" that will be felt by the public now - specifically in terms of rises in inflation and unemployment.
The length of time between now and the election is probably sufficient to mitigate the impact of Brazil's footballing failure on Dilma's re-election prospects. One can only hope that it will also be sufficient for at least some of Dilma's economic chickens to come home to roost.
Hi, Libertarian, I do agree: it is the conventional wisdom that the period of time between now and the October elections would mitigate whatever negative impact we would detect from the football failure. But, but, but, politics can have a unpredictable timing arising from its own process. There is a sense of "bad humour", "malaise", "impatience" which is hard to assess and evaluate. This is why I'd put a big question mark on your (and mine, to be sincere) assertion that time would work to mitigate bad impacts. Today I think that the "national"humiliation will sit deep in what we could call (no science, of course) "self esteem" of the electorate. Since Dilma is uncapable to connect, comunicate or articulate in emotional terms, which are important everywhere and even more so in Brazil, I think her party will have a difficult time trying to neutralize the astonishing events of last week.