Brasil: Another Bolsonaro Runs Against Lula

As Brazil Votes, Another Bolsonaro Seeks Power Amid Backlash Over Alignment With Trump BRAZIL Brazil Recently, as his father languished in prison for planning a coup, right-wing Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro appeared as a speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas. He told the audience that the charges against his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who sought to violently overturn the election won by leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, were politically motivated. Flávio Bolsonaro is now considered Lula’s main rival as Brazilians prepare to elect a new president on Oct. 4, with the two men neck and neck in the race. At the conference, Flávio Bolsonaro made his pitch. “Trump 2.0 is being much better than Trump 1.0, right?” he said. “Well, Bolsonaro 2.0 will also be much better.” Meanwhile, Lula is running for his fourth term, having previously served from 2003 to 2010 before his current stint. He, too, served time in prison after being convicted of corruption. However, the country’s top court annulled the charges, paving the way for his comeback. The two men are engaged in a lively campaign. Lula recently circulated a video of himself boxing and exercising, a clear dig at his 44-year-old opponent, who famously fainted on television during a 2016 debate. A socialist, Lula came to prominence in the wake of the collapse of the so-called Washington Consensus, a policy framework promoted by American thinkers centered on free enterprise and trade as the basis of economic growth, according to the Hoover Institution. Rejecting this view, he expanded the state’s role in the economy and pushed to redistribute wealth. He lifted millions out of poverty, but also clashed with Brazil’s conservative elites. Today, record tax revenues due to the country’s strong economy have helped Lula maintain his expensive spending plans, Bloomberg noted. Still, the opposition and the business community say the country is a disaster waiting to happen. “We’re not in the intensive-care unit, but we are moving towards that,” Armínio Fraga, a former boss of Brazil’s central bank, told the Economist. The problem, adds the British magazine, is unsustainable debt, especially from a generous pension system. The younger Bolsonaro, in contrast, would shrink government benefits while also cracking down on crime, which Brazilian voters say is one of their top issues. The candidate has called for the construction of “many, many prisons.” Meanwhile, he has also accused Lula of failing to cooperate with US President Donald Trump’s efforts to attack “narco-terrorists” across the region. Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira spoke by phone about potential US plans to designate Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho, major organized crime gangs, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, which would subject their members and supporters to sanctions. Brazil had rejected the move last year. Now the US is upping the pressure. Brazil’s resistance stems from concerns that the designation carries consequences that extend beyond law enforcement, wrote Americas Quarterly. “It could alter the legal and diplomatic context in which Brazil manages its own security while widening the reach of US sanctions, prosecutorial pressure and financial compliance into the Brazilian economy,” it said. “It could, in fact, carry greater consequences for other actors, including banks, companies and Brazilian politicians, than for the gangs themselves.” By contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro supports the FTO designation and closer coordination with the US’ new “Shield of the Americas” initiative, which involves joint military offensives against violent criminal gangs. However, analysts say the close association with Trump is what might cost Flávio Bolsonaro the election. Last year, Lula’s approval ratings rose after the Trump administration placed steep tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned officials in an unsuccessful attempt to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of prison. The measures were backed by the former president’s sons Flávio and Eduardo. Analysts say the move has fueled a backlash against the Bolsonaros. “There is growing popular anger directed at the Bolsonaro family for having advocated for US economic sanctions that harmed Brazil’s economy in a bid to protect their father,” World Politics Review wrote. “For those middle-ground voters, this is less about the general question of improving relations with the US, which many Brazilians would like to see happen, and much more about the specifics of how the Bolsonaros have gone about doing it.”