Chile: A Change Lection Isn't Likely To Bring Change

A ‘Change’ Election In Chile Isn’t Likely To Bring Change Chile Henchmen convicted of murdering, torturing, and suppressing the civil rights of Chileans under military dictator Augusto Pinochet from 1973 to 1990 had been enjoying tennis courts, barbecues, television, and a well-stocked library until Chilean President Gabriel Boric recently announced they would serve their sentences like normal prisoners from now on. “The fact that Chile has a special prison like this has no justification,” said Boric, according to the Guardian. “Places will be decided according to security criteria, not privilege…this is a step further in the direction of a more democratic Chile, which is more respectful of human dignity.” The move was a clear message to voters who will decide on Nov. 16 whether to elect a new head of state who would continue Boric’s progressive policies or restore the conservatism that the memory of Pinochet evokes in the South American country. An increase in crime in recent years – kidnappings and murders have doubled in the past decade – has put public safety at the top of voters’ minds, giving conservatives a boost. Many Chileans are expressing nostalgia for the tough-on-crime days under Pinochet, especially the young, who weren’t even born when he and other generals ordered warplanes to bomb the presidential palace in 1973 and had thousands of opponents rounded up and murdered or disappeared. “I didn’t live through that time, but we need someone who takes a firm hand like he did,” Vicente Sepulveda, a 20-year-old engineering student, told Agence France-Presse. Chile is one of South America’s safest countries but the rise in violent crime has caused deep disquiet in a nation with a reputation for stability, causing the issue to become a national obsession. Communist Party member Jeannette Jara, who was Boric’s labor minister, is currently running ahead in the polls, wrote the Americas Society/ Council of the Americas. But her success might reflect how numerous right-wing candidates are vying to be the standard-bearer of their ideology, splitting the vote. Still, because candidates must succeed in two rounds of voting, Jara can’t rest on her laurels: Some analysts say she’ll lose to the conservative candidate if the vote goes to a second round. Jara’s challenges include Boric’s failure to score major policy gains that might have ended some of the ideological battles in Chile. Voters rejected two new constitutions – one leftist and progressive, one right-wing and populist. The proposed constitutions aimed to address some of the tensions that flared in 2019 when large-scale protests broke out after students took to the streets to complain about fare increases in the capital Santiago’s subways. Police cracked down on the largely peaceful demonstrations that followed. Analysts suspect the country might now swing to the right to see if Boric’s opponents can succeed where the incumbent has failed, a European Parliament policy paper explained. The changes could be dramatic. Following in the footsteps of Javier Milei, the president of neighboring Argentina, right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast, the frontrunner among the Chilean conservative candidates, would cut billions in government spending, enact tough policing, and crack down on migration, reported El País. Boric administration officials warned that those moves would affect legally mandatory social welfare spending. Jara has proposed a minimum income and other spending to reduce crime and reduce migration, especially from Venezuela, wrote Americas Quarterly. Voters will decide whether to double down on Boric’s prescriptions or seek out a second opinion. But regardless of whom they pick to lead the nation, it isn’t likely much will change, say analysts. “Chile has held seven nationwide ballots in the six years since large-scale protests rocked the (country)…,” wrote World Politics Review. “…that will make the presidential and legislative elections…and the second round…the ninth and tenth times Chileans will have gone to the polls since the country so loudly demanded that its political system be changed. And yet, no clear direction for change has emerged, nor is one likely to this time.”