Uruguay Is Moving Toward China

Stability Über Alles Uruguay Last fall, when Uruguayans were asked in a referendum whether they would like to retire five years early with bigger pension payments, they resoundingly said no. They worried that the country would become unstable if it took on more debt to fund the changes. It’s unusual for voters to vote against their own personal interests anywhere. But in this small, prosperous South American country of 3.4 million people in the center of a region marked by violence, instability, and authoritarian governments, voters see stability as their interest. That drive for moderation and stability is evident in the politics of the country – here, elections are fought from the center, wrote World Politics Review. That was especially true of the elections last fall. For example, the winner, Yamandú Orsi of the left-wing Broad Front party, won on a campaign that promised stability and “Safe change that won’t be radical.” His opponent, Álvaro Delgado of the center-right National Party, delivered a similar message. During the election, as the Americas Society/Council of the Americas explained, voters liked the idea of decreasing the retirement age from 65 to 60. But they worried it would put too much pressure on the national budget. Some say that such caution isn’t helping the country solve its problems. For example, one top concern is the deteriorating security situation, mainly due to the rise of criminal gangs, which is harming the country’s reputation as a beacon of stability. Cocaine shipments to Europe have surged through the port of the capital, Montevideo, fueling a rise in gang violence, wrote Insight Crime. The murder rate has almost doubled in a decade to 11 per 100,000 people. That has shocked the population, which is unaccustomed to such violence. “Uruguay is in a precarious position,” wrote Reuters, “fighting a lonely battle against cocaine-smuggling gangs” that have expanded into every corner of Latin America over the last decade, turning once-tranquil nations like Ecuador into cartel badlands. Other issues facing the country, in spite of it being one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America, are the cost of living, education, and poverty. About half of all children finish high school, one in five children live in poverty, and the country has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Latin America – about 26 percent. Another issue that worries voters is the economy and trade. Economic growth is slow and steady in the country, at around 4 percent last year. But Ecuadorians are rattled by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and other shocks to the global economy. As a result, Uruguayans are growing closer to China and also Europe. “Energy is expensive. China is now seen as a complicated competitor. The US is getting more and more protectionist. In this new geopolitical scenario, it is key for Europe to strengthen the partnerships they can have,” Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Omar Paganini told Politico. “For Latin America, the situation is rather similar … in the sense that we are being pulled by different powers like China, the US. We need long-term friendships with stable partners.” Top European Union officials visited Uruguay in December to sign a landmark free-trade agreement with the Latin American Mercosur trade bloc, made up of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. The deal had been in the works for decades. Meanwhile, China and Uruguay are negotiating a bilateral trade deal even as Uruguay is also pushing for a wider Mercosur trade agreement with China. China and Brazil are Uruguay’s top trade partners. Uruguayan officials say they have tried for years to get a free trade agreement with the US and would have preferred that, given that they have “issues related to how the Chinese believe, and their political organization, the human rights issues,” Uruguay officials explained. “So let’s be pragmatic, we are a small country in a complicated world, we need trade partners – and they are stable people,” added Paganini. “Moreover, the world is changing and not for good for those who believe in rules-based relationships and agreements.”