Saturday, February 29, 2020

Jack's Thoughts On The Covid-19 Threat

Dear:

Your Saturday morning newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

The only hopeful note here is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19:

https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php

The Israelis have an incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best.

One disturbing model has emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of 2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million.

On a personal level, everyone needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of you who are medical professionals are especially at risk.

The world economy will sink into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is such an event.

These are trying times!

Be careful out there!

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

A Japanese Swordsmith In Brasil

Invictus

Keeping traditions alive is not an easy commitment, but Edson Suemitsu, a Brazilian with Japanese heritage, has dedicated more than 40 years of his life to maintaining the craft of his forefathers, Reuters reported.

In a country known for its beaches, soccer and flamboyant carnivals, the 61-year-old is Brazil’s only full-time katana swordsmith.

Dubbed the country’s “last samurai,” Suemitsu has been making a living by forging katanas, a type of curved sword used by the noble samurai in ancient Japan.

He became interested in the craft after seeing his Japanese-born grandfather creating blades as tools to fight venomous snakes at their frontier farm in southern Brazil.

He later picked up the art of making katanas through extensive trial and error, and the laborious method proved fruitful.

In four decades Suemitsu has forged around 1,000 swords ranging in price from about $1,400 to $4,500, and has clients from all over the world.

But the process it not easy: He works alone for long days and weekends to produce three swords a month.

Despite the challenges, the master swordsmith has no plans to retire or find someone to pass the torch to.

“I don’t know if I’ll have successors because the work is very complex,” he said. “It can’t be for the money, it has to be for the heart.”

Click here to see his craft.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Praia Linda do Brasil - Florianopolis - Praia Brava

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Chile: Contest Of Our Time

CHILE

Contest of Our Time

Free marketeers have long considered Chile a darling among South American countries due to its reputation as conservative, pro-business and stable.

But recently one of the country’s best-known exports has been a feminist protest song called “The Rapist Is You,” the Guardian reported. The song is a critique of patriarchy. It also is a sign of how many Chileans don’t like where their country is going.

At least 27 people have died in protests that erupted in Chile in October, Al Jazeera wrote. The civil unrest was triggered by a hike in metro fare costs. But the demonstrations now target President Sebastian Pinera, a billionaire whom many Chileans view as a symbol of the economic inequality that has marked the country in recent years.

Students have disrupted the Chilean version of SAT tests, saying the college-entrance exams are unfair because wealthier students perform better, Time wrote. A victim of sexual abuse who courageously went public against the Catholic Church in Chile is launching a new political party, called Dignity, to fight against inequality and rising costs, Reuters reported.

Despite Chile’s pro-business image, corruption is widespread. Solid evidence suggested that lawmakers received bribes to enact a fishery law that gave monopoly rights to politically connected elites, for example. Yet the law passed, enriching the rich. Such corruption costs Chileans around $5 billion a year in uncollected taxes and other lost revenues, according to Pro-Market, a blog produced by the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Pinera has taken action. He halted the metro fare hikes, raised pensions, hired and fired cabinet members, launched health care reforms and agreed to schedule an April referendum on whether or not to rewrite the country’s constitution, a document adopted in 1980 when a military junta ran the country.

The protests continue, however. People appear to want more than tweaked government policies.

“One of the main challenges, inequality, won’t be solved with simply approving a new constitution,” said Pablo Villoch, who teaches business at Chilean universities, in an interview with the Washington Post. “But I think this is a historic opportunity to get closer to a system that is more socially cohesive.”

Chile’s travails are common throughout the world, argued writer Ariel Dorfman in a New York Times op-ed. Impatient, frustrated and tech savvy folks, often young folks, are challenging a political, social and economic system that appears slanted in favor of the rich who, absent protests, have few incentives to give up their power.

In Chile and elsewhere, this contest doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game. But it might turn out to be one.

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

The Rush to Save Argentina's Malbec

Monday, January 20, 2020

Five Reasons To Live In Oaxaca, Mexico

Mexico

Five reasons to live in Oaxaca de Juárez, Mexico

Living costs are relatively low in the capital of Oaxaca state, which has lively culinary and art scenes

10 HOURS AGO

By Persis Love

Nestled in a valley at the foothills of the dusky Sierra Juárez, the capital of Oaxaca state attracts expats with its lively cultural output, affordable and relaxed pace of life, and direct flights to the US.

Global connections

Oaxaca de Juárez’s historic centre, with its cobbled streets and well-preserved colonial architecture, and nearby archeological site Monte Alban are protected world heritage sites. Buildings of note include the Church of Santo Domingo de Guzmán with its attached monastery now home to a museum about local history and culture.

Today, the city’s global profile is growing and the number of international passengers arriving in Oaxaca airport increased by 51.4 per cent in the year to October 2019. Direct flights from Oaxaca to US cities including Los Angeles, Dallas and Houston are also drawing expats to settle in the city.

*The ruins of the Zapotec city of Monte Alban in Oaxaca*

Economic pull

The cost of living is favourable for those living off dollars, euros or sterling: the price of daily goods is lower than in the US and Europe, with groceries costing more than 70 per cent less than in New York, according to the comparison site Numbeo.

Local agent John Harvey Williams, of Real Estate Oaxaca, says about 80 per cent of property in the upmarket neighbourhoods of Centro, Barrio de Xochimilco, Reforma, San Felipe del Agua and Barrio de Jalatlaco is bought by foreign buyers, mostly from the US. Around half of purchases are for a primary home.

Williams says a two-bedroom apartment in the city centre costs around US$100,000, while a four or five-bedroom house with a garden is around US$700,000. However, he says the city’s popularity is increasing and he expects prices to rise by at least 10 per cent in 2020. Prices in Oaxaca state grew by 7.1 per cent year on year in the first nine months of 2019, compared with 8.9 per cent in Mexico as a whole.

*The Sierra Madre del Sur mountains surround Oaxaca*

Creative hub

The city’s thriving contemporary art scene overlaps with its tradition of intricate artisanry in the form of textiles, ceramics and alebrijes (sculptures of imaginary creatures). A network of printmaking studios such as Espacio Zapata and Burro Press attracts artists from across the world, with a constant stream of exhibitions and workshops.

There are numerous public arts spaces and museums including Instituto de Artes Gráficas de Oaxaca (IAGO), a graphic arts institute, which was founded by the late acclaimed artist Francisco Toledo. It has an extensive library of art books, film screenings and exhibits by contemporary Oaxacan artists. The city also hosts an annual international film festival, Oaxaca FilmFest, and is the stage for literary and musical events.

*A courtyard in the historic centre of Oaxaca*

Culinary capital

The birthplace of mole, the traditional Mexican sauce with variations made from different peppers, nuts and chocolate, Oaxaca de Juárez is a centre for contemporary fine dining. Origen restaurant is run by Rodolfo Castellanos, the winner of TV series Top Chef Mexico in 2016, while Criollo is a modern take on traditional Oaxacan food with dishes such as plantain tamales in black mole.

*Criollo restaurant offers contemporary reinterpretations of traditional Oaxacan cuisine*

Wildflower walks

Weekend hiking trips are possible in the mountain ranges to the north and south of the city. The Sierra Juárez, 60km to the north of central Oaxaca, is rich in flora and inspired Oliver Sacks’ Oaxaca Journal.

A collection of villages known as the Pueblos Mancomunados, including Benito Juárez and Latuvi, have established an eco-tourism network with cabins, guides and mountain bikes available to hire, which make navigating the area easy.