Néstor Kirchner
Published: October 28 2010 09:54 | Last updated: October 28 2010 15:40
Financial markets can be efficient at valuing, say, corporate results. In larger matters, they often miss the point. Take investors’ positive response to the sudden death of Néstor Kirchner. Argentina’s former president influenced the incumbent, his wife Cristina, in her policies, which are definitely inflationary and probably bad for the country’s long-term prospects.
The weakening of the Kirchner hold may well be good for markets, but Wednesday’s 13 per cent increase in Argentine share prices was senseless. After all, Argentina’s entrenched tradition of self-destructive economic populism long pre-dates Mr Kirchner, who was almost unknown when he came to power in 2003. Its economic record under his presidency was okay, and under his wife the country even made good its relations with international creditors. If bad policy is what Argentina wants, another Kirchner (quite possibly less skilled) will be found to lead the people in the wrong direction.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Kirchner death sparks market rally - Oct-28
Death leaves Argentina’s future wide open - Oct-27
Combative style paved way for dynasty - Oct-27
beyondbrics: Néstor Kirchner’s death - Oct-27
Short View: Argentine bonds - Oct-27
Video: Emerging markets bubble - Sep-01
For an even better example of the markets’ unsubtle judgment of Latin American politics, look at neighbouring Brazil, where shares could be had for two-thirds of book value during the sell-off ahead of Lula’s election as president in 2002. Now, at the end of his presidency, they go for twice book.
Evidently markets, like people, attribute too much to individual mortals. They also fail to put a value on natural assets such as the cost of lost biodiversity and flood-prevention. On Thursday The World Bank announced a new programme to introduce “ecosystem valuation into national accounts”. This would make it easier to charge companies for the environmental costs of their projects. But there is no realistic way to calculate the present value of a possible disaster avoided a decade or a century from now. The numbers would largely reflect the prejudices of those who calculate them – just like markets’ judgments on Latin American politics.
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Wednesday, October 27, 2010
The Kirchner Style
Combative style paved way for powerful dynasty
By John Paul Rathbone in London
Published: October 27 2010 19:34 | Last updated: October 27 2010 19:34
Néstor Kirchner, the former Argentine president who, with his wife, formed what many called the country’s most powerful political dynasty since Juan and Evita Perón, died on Wednesday from a heart attack. He was 60.
The son of a post office official, he first tasted power as mayor and then governor of Santa Cruz, a distant southern province closer to the Antarctic than the capital. Paradoxically, this obscurity served him well. In 2003, shortly after the country defaulted on $100bn of foreign debt, Mr Kirchner ran for the presidency as a fresh face who could promise voters he would “renew the political culture” and cleanse it of corruption.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Former Argentine president Kirchner dies - Oct-27
Death leaves Argentina’s future wide open - Oct-27
beyondbrics: Néstor Kirchner’s death - Oct-27
Media chief attacks Argentine president - Sep-16
Kirchner heart surgery - Sep-12
His inauguration that May gave the nation a taste of Mr Kirchner’s typical aggression. Tall and lanky with a lazy eye, speech impediment and a nose like a hawk’s beak, Mr Kirchner sported a Band-Aid on his face after being cut by a camera while, in typical “K Style”, wading through chaotic crowds.
Mr Kirchner, whose closest supporters, many of whom followed him to Buenos Aires from Santa Cruz and were known as “penguins”, negotiated one of the most punitive debt restructurings in history – offering international creditors about 30 cents on the dollar. He clashed frequently with the International Monetary Fund and foreign companies, exhorting Argentines in one example in 2005 to boycott Shell petrol stations after the oil company raised prices.
After the international humiliation of the debt default, this approach won him popularity at home. Just 100 days into his presidency, he became the most popular president in Argentine history.
But his heterodox economic approach, which included price controls and the “smart populism” of targeted spending at urban classes, and which he continued in 2007 from behind the scenes when his wife Cristina Fernández won the presidency, left a mixed record. In their back-to-back tenures, the Kirchners increased state control of the economy, muzzled the press and intervened in financial and commodity markets, but international investment fell.
High initial growth was followed by high inflation and, in congressional elections in 2009, Mr Kirchner lost office to an opponent from an anti-Kirchner faction of the Peronist party, because of rising crime, corruption and a battle with farmers over export taxes. However, an economic recovery this year, thanks in large part to rising commodity prices and the boom in neighbouring Brazil, saw approval ratings for his wife’s presidency, and his own popularity by association, recover from lows of about 20 per cent.
Alongside his wife, who was expected to try to return the presidential baton to her husband in the 2011 election, he was often associated with the “new left” in Latin America. He was a close ally of Hugo Chávez, the radical president of Venezuela, and once thundered that “no way in hell” would Argentina return to the IMF after the country paid off its $10bn debt in 2006.
Yet, like Ms Fernández, he occupied a hazier middle political ground that was always pragmatic – critics said venal – more than ideological. This year, Argentina made overtures to repair relations with both the IMF and international creditors after negotiating a deal with holdouts who never accepted the original terms of his 30 cents on the dollar restructuring deal.
Mr Kirchner underwent surgery twice this year, treating physical debilities that stood in contrast to his robust attitudes. “What stands out is the solidity of his convictions, which were not always backed by the majority of people but were always firm, clear and at times even aggressive,” commented Antonio Cafiero, a minister under Peron, who added that Mr K’s style “wasn’t always the best”.
“We have lost a good Argentine, a politician to his fingertips; a true, astute, combative politician who never hid his convictions . . . and who has left his mark on national life.”
He is survived by his wife and two children.
By John Paul Rathbone in London
Published: October 27 2010 19:34 | Last updated: October 27 2010 19:34
Néstor Kirchner, the former Argentine president who, with his wife, formed what many called the country’s most powerful political dynasty since Juan and Evita Perón, died on Wednesday from a heart attack. He was 60.
The son of a post office official, he first tasted power as mayor and then governor of Santa Cruz, a distant southern province closer to the Antarctic than the capital. Paradoxically, this obscurity served him well. In 2003, shortly after the country defaulted on $100bn of foreign debt, Mr Kirchner ran for the presidency as a fresh face who could promise voters he would “renew the political culture” and cleanse it of corruption.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Former Argentine president Kirchner dies - Oct-27
Death leaves Argentina’s future wide open - Oct-27
beyondbrics: Néstor Kirchner’s death - Oct-27
Media chief attacks Argentine president - Sep-16
Kirchner heart surgery - Sep-12
His inauguration that May gave the nation a taste of Mr Kirchner’s typical aggression. Tall and lanky with a lazy eye, speech impediment and a nose like a hawk’s beak, Mr Kirchner sported a Band-Aid on his face after being cut by a camera while, in typical “K Style”, wading through chaotic crowds.
Mr Kirchner, whose closest supporters, many of whom followed him to Buenos Aires from Santa Cruz and were known as “penguins”, negotiated one of the most punitive debt restructurings in history – offering international creditors about 30 cents on the dollar. He clashed frequently with the International Monetary Fund and foreign companies, exhorting Argentines in one example in 2005 to boycott Shell petrol stations after the oil company raised prices.
After the international humiliation of the debt default, this approach won him popularity at home. Just 100 days into his presidency, he became the most popular president in Argentine history.
But his heterodox economic approach, which included price controls and the “smart populism” of targeted spending at urban classes, and which he continued in 2007 from behind the scenes when his wife Cristina Fernández won the presidency, left a mixed record. In their back-to-back tenures, the Kirchners increased state control of the economy, muzzled the press and intervened in financial and commodity markets, but international investment fell.
High initial growth was followed by high inflation and, in congressional elections in 2009, Mr Kirchner lost office to an opponent from an anti-Kirchner faction of the Peronist party, because of rising crime, corruption and a battle with farmers over export taxes. However, an economic recovery this year, thanks in large part to rising commodity prices and the boom in neighbouring Brazil, saw approval ratings for his wife’s presidency, and his own popularity by association, recover from lows of about 20 per cent.
Alongside his wife, who was expected to try to return the presidential baton to her husband in the 2011 election, he was often associated with the “new left” in Latin America. He was a close ally of Hugo Chávez, the radical president of Venezuela, and once thundered that “no way in hell” would Argentina return to the IMF after the country paid off its $10bn debt in 2006.
Yet, like Ms Fernández, he occupied a hazier middle political ground that was always pragmatic – critics said venal – more than ideological. This year, Argentina made overtures to repair relations with both the IMF and international creditors after negotiating a deal with holdouts who never accepted the original terms of his 30 cents on the dollar restructuring deal.
Mr Kirchner underwent surgery twice this year, treating physical debilities that stood in contrast to his robust attitudes. “What stands out is the solidity of his convictions, which were not always backed by the majority of people but were always firm, clear and at times even aggressive,” commented Antonio Cafiero, a minister under Peron, who added that Mr K’s style “wasn’t always the best”.
“We have lost a good Argentine, a politician to his fingertips; a true, astute, combative politician who never hid his convictions . . . and who has left his mark on national life.”
He is survived by his wife and two children.
Death Leaves Argentina's Future Wide Open
Death leaves Argentina’s future wide open
By Jude Webber in Buenos Aires
Published: October 27 2010 14:59 | Last updated: October 27 2010 19:42
Argentinean President Cristina Fernandez and her husband, the former president Nestor Kirchner
The death of Néstor Kirchner, Argentina’s most influential politician, leaves a void at the heart of the presidency of his wife, Cristina Fernández, and a big question mark over the country’s direction.
The Kirchners’ unpopularity with middle-class voters made neither of them a sure-fire bet for victory in presidential elections in October 2011. But one or the other of Argentina’s most powerful political couple since Juan and Evita Perón had been expected to stand, in hopes that the combination of a weak opposition, booming growth and high public spending would carry them through.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Former Argentine president Kirchner dies - Oct-27
Combative style paved way for dynasty - Oct-27
beyondbrics: Néstor Kirchner’s death - Oct-27
Media chief attacks Argentine president - Sep-16
Kirchner heart surgery - Sep-12
Now, with the death of Mr Kirchner of a heart attack on Wednesday at the age of 60, everything is wide open.
Ms Fernández will receive a massive outpouring of sympathy, but opinion polls showed voters were already weary of the couple’s confrontational style well before Mr Kirchner’s death – which may open the way to a milder candidate like Mr Kirchner’s vice-president, Daniel Scioli, to steer Argentina into a more investor-friendly era.
“This dramatically changes the current political landscape and the outlook for the elections,” said Joaquín Morales Solá, a commentator. “The Kirchner era was over before this . . . I don’t think she can renew a political mandate without her husband. Theirs was a joint project.”
Mr Kirchner’s death offers Ms Fernández an elegant way out if she decides not to stand again in 2011. With no prospect of humiliating defeat, she could wrap up her term as the president who tackled the problem of “holdouts”, creditors still unpaid from Argentina’s 2001 default – a key step towards restoring international respectability. And with the economy expected to grow as much as 8 per cent this year and more than 5 per cent in 2011, and record central bank reserves, she could argue she was leaving Argentina in fine shape – vindication for her husband’s political model.
She may, in addition, find that no one would be willing to pursue her for corruption charges during the two Kirchner terms.
Under the polarising presidencies of the Kirchners, Argentina’s ruling Peronist party has become bitterly divided. “With Kirchner’s death, the battle for dominance within the Peronist movement will be fierce,” says Irenea Renuncio-Mateos, Latin America analyst at IHS Global Insight.
“Meanwhile, the popularity of Daniel Scioli – governor of Argentina’s Buenos Aires province and president of the Justicialist Party – keeps on rising ahead of next year’s general elections,” Ms Renuncio-Mateos added. Mr Scioli is attracting increasing support from both the electorate and business, she said.
Daniel Kerner, analyst at Eurasia, a consultancy, noted that the way the Fernández government has worked until now was for all the decision-making powers to be concentrated in the hands of Mr Kirchner. “This isn’t a government of president and ministers and a team – it was basically him,” he said.
He, however, expected Mr Kirchner’s death to reaffirm Ms Fernández’s candidacy next year, though he acknowledged there was likely to be a battle for control of the government. He expected Ms Fernández to stick firmly to the lines mapped out by her husband, and to trust the same close-knit group of advisers.
In addition, Mr Kerner said it might prove difficult for Mr Scioli – or anyone else from within the Kirchner orbit – from launching his own bid without being seen as a traitor.
“At face value, President Cristina Kirchner is now more likely to stand for re-election (but without the valuable contribution and political coattails of a seasoned strategist) and a cabinet reshuffle over the next few months should not be ruled out,” echoed Alberto Ramos at Goldman Sachs.
By Jude Webber in Buenos Aires
Published: October 27 2010 14:59 | Last updated: October 27 2010 19:42
Argentinean President Cristina Fernandez and her husband, the former president Nestor Kirchner
The death of Néstor Kirchner, Argentina’s most influential politician, leaves a void at the heart of the presidency of his wife, Cristina Fernández, and a big question mark over the country’s direction.
The Kirchners’ unpopularity with middle-class voters made neither of them a sure-fire bet for victory in presidential elections in October 2011. But one or the other of Argentina’s most powerful political couple since Juan and Evita Perón had been expected to stand, in hopes that the combination of a weak opposition, booming growth and high public spending would carry them through.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Former Argentine president Kirchner dies - Oct-27
Combative style paved way for dynasty - Oct-27
beyondbrics: Néstor Kirchner’s death - Oct-27
Media chief attacks Argentine president - Sep-16
Kirchner heart surgery - Sep-12
Now, with the death of Mr Kirchner of a heart attack on Wednesday at the age of 60, everything is wide open.
Ms Fernández will receive a massive outpouring of sympathy, but opinion polls showed voters were already weary of the couple’s confrontational style well before Mr Kirchner’s death – which may open the way to a milder candidate like Mr Kirchner’s vice-president, Daniel Scioli, to steer Argentina into a more investor-friendly era.
“This dramatically changes the current political landscape and the outlook for the elections,” said Joaquín Morales Solá, a commentator. “The Kirchner era was over before this . . . I don’t think she can renew a political mandate without her husband. Theirs was a joint project.”
Mr Kirchner’s death offers Ms Fernández an elegant way out if she decides not to stand again in 2011. With no prospect of humiliating defeat, she could wrap up her term as the president who tackled the problem of “holdouts”, creditors still unpaid from Argentina’s 2001 default – a key step towards restoring international respectability. And with the economy expected to grow as much as 8 per cent this year and more than 5 per cent in 2011, and record central bank reserves, she could argue she was leaving Argentina in fine shape – vindication for her husband’s political model.
She may, in addition, find that no one would be willing to pursue her for corruption charges during the two Kirchner terms.
Under the polarising presidencies of the Kirchners, Argentina’s ruling Peronist party has become bitterly divided. “With Kirchner’s death, the battle for dominance within the Peronist movement will be fierce,” says Irenea Renuncio-Mateos, Latin America analyst at IHS Global Insight.
“Meanwhile, the popularity of Daniel Scioli – governor of Argentina’s Buenos Aires province and president of the Justicialist Party – keeps on rising ahead of next year’s general elections,” Ms Renuncio-Mateos added. Mr Scioli is attracting increasing support from both the electorate and business, she said.
Daniel Kerner, analyst at Eurasia, a consultancy, noted that the way the Fernández government has worked until now was for all the decision-making powers to be concentrated in the hands of Mr Kirchner. “This isn’t a government of president and ministers and a team – it was basically him,” he said.
He, however, expected Mr Kirchner’s death to reaffirm Ms Fernández’s candidacy next year, though he acknowledged there was likely to be a battle for control of the government. He expected Ms Fernández to stick firmly to the lines mapped out by her husband, and to trust the same close-knit group of advisers.
In addition, Mr Kerner said it might prove difficult for Mr Scioli – or anyone else from within the Kirchner orbit – from launching his own bid without being seen as a traitor.
“At face value, President Cristina Kirchner is now more likely to stand for re-election (but without the valuable contribution and political coattails of a seasoned strategist) and a cabinet reshuffle over the next few months should not be ruled out,” echoed Alberto Ramos at Goldman Sachs.
Brazil's Testy Election Race
Brazil’s testy election race
Published: October 26 2010 23:21 | Last updated: October 26 2010 23:21
Brazil’s presidential election has taken a nasty turn. At a recent rally, José Serra, from the opposition PSDB party, was hit on the head by a roll of duct tape, supposedly thrown by a supporter of the ruling PT party. “You remember the Nazi’s assault troops?” he sneered, harvesting political capital for Sunday’s run-off. “This is typical of fascists.” The next day, it was Dilma Rousseff’s turn. On campaign in PSDB territory, she was almost hit by a water balloon.
One reason for this burst of aggression is that Brazil’s election race, like all good races, has kept the drama for last. It grew unexpectedly close after Ms Rousseff failed to win the first round outright, despite being president Luiz Inácio da Silva’s public protégée. Both candidates have also said little about their proposed policies, preferring instead vague promises of continuity. This is politically understandable: every Brazilian wants to prolong the country’s new prosperity. But it also left the candidates to define themselves only by denigrating the other.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
beyondbrics: Brazil - Aug-31
Greens’ Silva captures young voters’ support - Oct-21
Brazilian poll rivals clash over abortion - Oct-12
Editorial Comment: Dilma and Serra head for round two - Oct-04
Rousseff rallies voters in Lula stronghold - Oct-02
Lula keen to protect legacy as Brazil votes - Oct-01
In fact, both are remarkably similar. They are social democrats who believe in market-friendly policies with a large social component. They are busybody technocrats. They are also charmless. Both have been compared to Gordon Brown, only without the charisma – a potentially serious problem. Success in Brasília hinges on the president’s ability to cajole and seduce his or her party’s coalition partners. Mr Lula da Silva was rich in such talents. Ms Rousseff and Mr Serra are not.
Where differences do exist, they are slight but significant. Mr Serra is more of a fiscal hawk. Hopefully, he would stop the use of off-budget schemes recently deployed to meet fiscal targets. Trimming public spending, still rising fast despite a red-hot economy, would also bring down interest rates and so limit currency appreciation. Ms Rousseff favours a bigger state, although a fifth of public companies already count it – one way or other – among their top five shareholders. On foreign policy, Mr Serra would be less indulgent towards Iran, Venezuela and Cuba than Brazil has been. Ms Rousseff has also only just recovered from cancer.
Yet the biggest difference, perhaps, is the role Ms Rousseff’s wildly popular benefactor will play if she wins – as is likely, given her 10-point lead in polls. A parallel presidency, like Mr Putin’s in Russia, is possible; so too is Mr Lula da Silva’s return to office in 2014 and 2018. If only to interrupt this relationship with power, Mr Serra is the better choice for Brazil.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
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Published: October 26 2010 23:21 | Last updated: October 26 2010 23:21
Brazil’s presidential election has taken a nasty turn. At a recent rally, José Serra, from the opposition PSDB party, was hit on the head by a roll of duct tape, supposedly thrown by a supporter of the ruling PT party. “You remember the Nazi’s assault troops?” he sneered, harvesting political capital for Sunday’s run-off. “This is typical of fascists.” The next day, it was Dilma Rousseff’s turn. On campaign in PSDB territory, she was almost hit by a water balloon.
One reason for this burst of aggression is that Brazil’s election race, like all good races, has kept the drama for last. It grew unexpectedly close after Ms Rousseff failed to win the first round outright, despite being president Luiz Inácio da Silva’s public protégée. Both candidates have also said little about their proposed policies, preferring instead vague promises of continuity. This is politically understandable: every Brazilian wants to prolong the country’s new prosperity. But it also left the candidates to define themselves only by denigrating the other.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
beyondbrics: Brazil - Aug-31
Greens’ Silva captures young voters’ support - Oct-21
Brazilian poll rivals clash over abortion - Oct-12
Editorial Comment: Dilma and Serra head for round two - Oct-04
Rousseff rallies voters in Lula stronghold - Oct-02
Lula keen to protect legacy as Brazil votes - Oct-01
In fact, both are remarkably similar. They are social democrats who believe in market-friendly policies with a large social component. They are busybody technocrats. They are also charmless. Both have been compared to Gordon Brown, only without the charisma – a potentially serious problem. Success in Brasília hinges on the president’s ability to cajole and seduce his or her party’s coalition partners. Mr Lula da Silva was rich in such talents. Ms Rousseff and Mr Serra are not.
Where differences do exist, they are slight but significant. Mr Serra is more of a fiscal hawk. Hopefully, he would stop the use of off-budget schemes recently deployed to meet fiscal targets. Trimming public spending, still rising fast despite a red-hot economy, would also bring down interest rates and so limit currency appreciation. Ms Rousseff favours a bigger state, although a fifth of public companies already count it – one way or other – among their top five shareholders. On foreign policy, Mr Serra would be less indulgent towards Iran, Venezuela and Cuba than Brazil has been. Ms Rousseff has also only just recovered from cancer.
Yet the biggest difference, perhaps, is the role Ms Rousseff’s wildly popular benefactor will play if she wins – as is likely, given her 10-point lead in polls. A parallel presidency, like Mr Putin’s in Russia, is possible; so too is Mr Lula da Silva’s return to office in 2014 and 2018. If only to interrupt this relationship with power, Mr Serra is the better choice for Brazil.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
Print articleEmail articleClip this articleOrder reprints
Former Argentine President Kirschner Dies At age 60
 Former Argentine President Nestor Kirchner diesWednesday, October 27, 2010   FILE - In this June 22, 2009 file photo, Argentina's former president Nestor Kirchner gestures at a campaign rally in Buenos Aires, Argentina. According to state television in Argentina, Nestor Kirchner died on Wednesday Oct. 27, 2010 of a heart attack at age 60. (10-27) 08:00 PDT BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Former Argentine PresidentNestor Kirchner — the husband of current leader Cristina Fernandez — died suddenly Wednesday after suffering from severe heart trouble, the presidency said. Kirchner, 60, died after he was rushed in grave condition to the Formenti de Calafate hospital while suffering a severe heart attack, the presidency said. "It was a sudden death," his personal doctor, Luis Buonomo, told reporters in El Calafate, where Kirchner and his wife had gone to rest and await their turn to be counted in the nation's census. Buonomo said an official medical report would be released later in the day. He was accompanied at all times by his wife, the presidency said. Kirchner, 60, had undergone an angioplasty after a heart attack in September, but was still a likely candidate in next year's presidential elections. He also served as secretary general of the South American alliance known as Unasur, as a congressman and as leader of the Peronist party. The news shocked Argentines. "A great patriot has died," said Juan Carlos Dante Gullo, a ruling party congressman, to state TV. "This will leave a huge hole in Argentine politics. We will have to follow his example. Argentina has lost one of its greatest men." The leader of the human rights group Grandmothers of the Plaza de Mayo, Estela de Carlotto, said Kirchner "gave his life for his country." "Our country needed this man so much. He was indispensable," she told radio Continental. Kirchner served as president from 2003-2007, bringing Argentina out of severe economic crisis and encouraging judicial changes that set in motion dozens of human rights trials involving hundreds of dictatorship-era figures who had previously benefited from an amnesty. He recently was appointed secretary general of the Union of South American Republics, or Unasur, and was preparing for an intense 2011 election campaign in which either his wife or himself would run again to maintain their hold on power. Born in the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz, Kirchner and his wife were active in the Young Peronists party as students in La Plata, where he graduated in 1976. With the military firmly ruling the country, the young couple married and worked as private attorneys in the provincial capital. After democracy returned in 1983, Kirchner entered public service, first as the provincial pensions chief, and then as mayor of Rio Gallegos. In 1991, he became Santa Cruz's governor and Fernandez was elected to the provincial legislature, pushing through indefinite re-election and filling the provincial courts with sympathetic judges. In 1995 he was re-elected as governor by an overwhelming margin, laying the groundwork for a jump to politics at the national level. ___ Associated Press Writers Vicente Panetta and Mayra Pertossi contributed to this rep |
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2010/10/27/international/i063818D04.DTL#ixzz13ZWhtI3h
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