Brasil: Bolsonaro-The Yen ANd THe Yang

The Yin and the Yang Brazil Right-wing Brazilian populist Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2023, is technically banned from running for president again until 2030. He also is facing criminal charges for allegedly attempting a coup. Still, he recently told the Wall Street Journal that he plans to file papers for the election in 2026. If he runs, he would repeat the face-off that he lost in 2023 to his ideological rival, left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A former army officer who tortured civilians under the military junta that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985, the Guardian explained, Bolsonaro has denied the allegations that he planned a coup, saying the accusations are politically motivated. But the Economist wrote that his chances of facing jail time are increasing as the case against him becomes clearer, stronger, and the charges broader – they also include theft and corruption. Prosecutors cite undercover agents who helped Bolsonaro hatch a plan to seize power. In one taped conversation among the coup plotters, a colonel tells a top commander in the Brazilian military that they need to act after voters elect Lula to a third, non-consecutive term in the presidency, according to the Associated Press. “It will be either a civil war now or civil war later. We have a justification now for civil war; people are on the streets. We have massive support,” the colonel said. “Let’s do this now. Speak to 01,” 01 being code for the president. Video evidence even showed Bolsonaro staying at the Hungarian Embassy in the capital Brasília, where some wondered if he was seeking diplomatic asylum, the Jerusalem Post reported. Bolsonaro has close ties with the illiberal leader of Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Bolsonaro is also close to President-Elect Donald Trump, Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, and others who met recently in Buenos Aires to discuss free markets and conservative causes, added Reuters. Those international connections are one reason Bolsonaro still enjoys the support of half of the Brazilian electorate, World Politics Review noted. Corruption remains endemic in the country, too, souring many on Lula and his socialist allies, who have dominated the country’s politics for the past 20 years. Still, Lula’s base of working-class Brazilians who depend on public services is vast and well-organized, as a New York Times story showed. Lula has advocated for protecting the Amazon, recognizing Indigenous rights, and “reconciling economic growth with social inclusion,” as a Brazilian government press release explained. As the Jerusalem Post noted, the problems faced by Bolsonaro show voters there is accountability in Brazil. However, his prosecution also has consequences for Brazil’s political landscape. “These legal challenges mark a steep decline for Bolsonaro, who once positioned himself as a champion of Brazil’s right-wing movement,” it wrote. “(But) his absence from politics could leave a leadership vacuum in Brazil’s conservative ranks, (even as it is) reshaping the country’s political landscape and reinforcing accountability for undermining democracy. Share this story