Brasilians Want Change. That's A Problem For Both Candidates

Brazilians Want Change. That’s a Problem for Both Presidential Candidates BRAZIL Brazil Thousands of Brazilians marched through Rio de Janeiro recently to protest against presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro, who won the first round of elections Oct. 4. With drums, fireworks and dancing, they chanted, "Never Again Bolsonaro" and called for support for leftist incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who came in second place. "I'm here because I believe in democracy, because I'm scared," Alice Carneiro, 25, told Agence France-Presse, explaining that her stance was due to her experience with the frontrunner’s father, Jair Bolsonaro. "I remember my family's lives being at risk during the pandemic...I remember the vaccine denial." She is part of the “never Bolsonaro” camp. These people make up about 45 percent of Brazilian voters. Across the aisle, there is an equally fierce “never Lula” camp that makes up the same percentage of voters, Brazilians like Carolina Varella Tim of the southern city of Porto Alegre. “I vote against Lula, regardless of who the candidate is,” she told the New York Times. Currently, analysts say Lula is facing an uphill battle against Flávio Bolsonaro, who won the first round of voting by 2 percentage points against Lula in a field that included 10 other candidates. Now he and the incumbent president are vying for control of the South American country in an Oct. 25 runoff vote. The winner will be inaugurated in early January. Meanwhile, both candidates have their liabilities as they face an electorate hungry for change. Seeking his fourth term in office, Lula, 80, was imprisoned for almost two years on corruption charges until he was released in 2019 on a technicality. The country’s Supreme Court annulled the charges afterward, paving the way for him to re-enter politics. During this period, his close ally, Dilma Rousseff, became president but was impeached and removed from office in 2016. The main beneficiary of these developments was Jair Bolsonaro – he is currently serving more than 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula by the narrowest margin in the country’s history. He has anointed his oldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro, to run in his place, and the presidential contender has promised to grant his father amnesty if elected. The family drama surrounding the Bolsonaros escalated after Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian judge, recently ordered the arrest of Flávio Bolsonaro’s brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the US. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the judge says, allegedly attempted to pressure Brazilian judicial officials by threatening to lobby American leaders to impose sanctions and tariffs against Brazil unless the officials helped his father. The American government slapped sanctions on de Moraes last year for what the US government said was his political persecution of the elder Bolsonaro. At the same time, Flávio Bolsonaro is ​under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering tied to now-defunct lender Banco Master. The allegations against him center on his role in securing at least $12 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance “Dark Horse,” a sympathetic film about his father. Vorcaro is the former owner of Banco Master, which was shut down last year over a multibillion-dollar fraud case involving fake loans that cost Brazil’s deposit insurance system billions. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes is accused of feeding Vorcaro information about the investigation. Flávio Bolsonaro and de Moraes have denied the allegations. The case has not dented the 45-year-old frontrunner, with polls saying he is likely to defeat Lula when voters go to the polls. Vowing to follow free-market policies like those of Argentine President Javier Milei, Flávio Bolsonaro is hoping to clinch a major victory for the right and decisively defeat Lula’s leftist movement. “The word is change,” said Flávio Bolsonaro after the election results were in. “Brazil can’t take it anymore. The era of [Lula’s] Workers’ Party is hereby over, leaving behind a record of hopelessness.” Lula is behind in the race because he has been remiss in addressing issues Brazilian voters care about, such as the cost of living, inflation and corruption, explained Foreign Policy. With only a few weeks to go before the runoff vote, he began discussing how he would crack down on crime – a topic that Flávio Bolsonaro has been beating like a drum for months, the magazine added. Even so, Lula said after the first round that while the results of the first round surprised him, he’s the master of comebacks: “I am very good in the knockout stage.” Currently, polls show a statistical tie. The candidate in third place, writer Augusto Cury, said he would not endorse Lula. Other candidates in the first round such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos have made similar statements. Meanwhile, about 20 percent of voters abstained from casting a ballot in the first round. Analysts say they are likely to stay away again. Analysts say the election is really about change – Flávio Bolsonaro promises change even as many voters believe it would restore the governance of his father, wrote World Politics Review. At the same time, Lula has been part of the political scene in Brazil for decades and in this last term, is not seen as fulfilling his campaign promises and bringing about change. As a result, analysts doubt he can defeat that desire for change in the electorate. “An election about change is very difficult for the incumbent,” George Washington University economist Maurício Moura, founder of the polling firm Ideia, told the Washington Post. “Lula has to create the expectation that, in this case, change is bad.”