Guyana Is Having A Petrostate Moment

As the Gulf War Causes Energy Woes Around the World, Guyana’s Having a Petrostate Moment GUYANA Guyana The US recently seized the oil tanker Majestic X in the Indian Ocean, saying the Guyanese-flagged vessel was carrying Iranian oil. Guyanese officials claimed the ship fabricated its registration. But the incident underscored Guyana’s rising profile as a player in the global oil trade. Following ExxonMobil’s massive 2015 discovery of over 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Stabroek Block, Guyana rapidly became one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with crude production propelling unprecedented GDP growth. The Stabroek Block, about 120 miles offshore, is operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and the Chinese state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and holds most of Guyana’s reserves. This newfound wealth now dominates Guyana’s economy, turning the country into one of the top oil producers per capita in just a few years. Its gross domestic product growth has been among the highest in the world over the last five years, according to Rice University’s Baker Institute. Guyana’s oil revenues are now on track to hit $33 billion annually, which is 75 percent more than forecasters expected before the US-Israeli war against Iran and the shutdown of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Add the premium that Guyanese oil exporters receive from their main clients in Europe, and returns have surged far beyond earlier forecasts. But the boom is also pushing up costs at home. Guyana faces a significant risk of the resource curse, where abundant natural resources paradoxically lead to poor economic development, high income inequality and corruption. Even as Guyana exports crude, it remains exposed to global prices, importing refined fuels whose costs rise with international markets. Higher fuel prices feed into transport and electricity, pushing up food costs in a country reliant on imports, while surging demand outpaces housing and supply. As a result, inflation is rising even as growth accelerates, with oil accounting for three-quarters of GDP and the price shock set to deepen that reliance, said Radhika Bansal of Rystad Energy. “The cost of food and housing has increased by 75 percent since 2021. The oil industry poaches the best workers. … A flood of petro dollars has encouraged waste, if not outright clientelism,” the Economist wrote. To ease these pressures, Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali has announced cash grants of $100,000 to more than 240,000 people as part of his policy to share the wealth directly with citizens. Ali has also invested heavily in social programs. He plans to build a refinery so the country can produce its own fuel and potentially export finished products, arguing that national security requires Guyana to achieve energy and economic independence. Meanwhile, Guyana is locked in a long-running territorial dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region, a vast area administered by Guyana that is rich in natural resources and has gained fresh strategic importance with recent oil discoveries. “Strengthening military, economic, and diplomatic support for Guyana aligns with US national security interests given Guyana’s growing role as an energy producer, its strategic location, and its leadership among democratic nations in the Caribbean,” wrote the Council on Foreign Relations. For now, however, the domestic picture tells a different story. Despite the country’s oil boom, many Guyanese say the gains have yet to reach those on the margins. Data from the Inter-American Development Bank indicates that 58 percent of the country’s roughly 800,000 people live on less than $6.85 a day, with 32 percent surviving on under $3.65. Rajesh Singh, a 46-year-old painter and maintenance worker, said the oil boom has done little for ordinary people like him. “People must live comfortably now that we have big oil money, but it is clearly not happening yet,” he told the Guardian. “The big boys are looking after themselves too much.”

Peru's Electoral Court Requests Audit of April Elections

Peru’s Electoral Court Requests Audit of April Elections PERU Peru Peru’s electoral court this week requested a “comprehensive and exhaustive IT audit” of the April 12 general elections as uncertainty and mistrust persist over the incomplete vote count. The court, formally known as the National Jury of Elections (JNE) said Saturday the audit is necessary “to strengthen the transparency, integrity, and reliability of the election results.” The request comes weeks after the outcome of the first round remains unresolved, with 97.5 percent of votes counted and authorities still reviewing disputed tally sheets from more than 1 million ballots. The election was marred by logistical failures that forced officials to extend voting by an additional day, prompting accusations of fraud and manipulation. The disruptions led election chief Piero Corvetto to resign last month. He had acknowledged problems in the process but denied any wrongdoing. Authorities have since launched an investigation into the irregularities. Preliminary results show conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori leading the race, but it remains unclear who she will face in the June runoff. Left-wing congressman Roberto Sánchez and ultraconservative Rafael López Aliaga are locked in a tight contest for second place. The JNE said the planned audit would not interfere with the ongoing review of contested ballots. Officials had previously indicated that final results would be announced no later than May 15.

Colombia: Highway Blast Kills At Least 21

Colombia Highway Blast Kills At Least 21, Insurgents Blamed COLOMBIA Colombia A powerful bomb blast on a highway in Colombia killed at least 21 people and injured 56 others over the weekend, with authorities accusing guerrilla insurgents of the attack ahead of next month’s presidential elections. The explosion occurred Saturday on the Pan-American Highway in the southwestern Cauca department, a region long affected by armed conflict. Authorities said attackers blocked traffic using a bus and another vehicle before detonating an explosive device, leaving a crater more than 7,000 cubic feet in size. Security officials described the incident as a “terrorist attack” and called it Cauca’s “most brutal and ruthless attack against the civilian population in decades.” President Gustavo Petro blamed the bombing on Iván Mordisco, the alias used by Colombia’s most-wanted criminal and leader of a dissident faction of the now-defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Mordisco’s group operates in the southwestern region and is involved in illegal mining, extortion and drug trafficking. On Saturday, Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez accused “Marlon” – a rebel leader affiliated with Mordisco’s group – of orchestrating the attack and offered a $1.4 million reward for information leading to his capture. The attack follows a series of recent incidents in the Cauca region, including a bomb attack on a military base in the city of Cali on Friday. The violence comes a little more than a month before the May 31 presidential election, when voters will choose a successor to Petro. Security has become a central issue in the campaign, particularly after the assassination last year of conservative frontrunner Miguel Uribe Turbay. Left-wing Sen. Iván Cepeda, a key figure behind Petro’s policy of negotiating with armed groups, currently leads in the polls. He is followed by right-wing candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, both of whom have pledged a tougher approach to rebel groups. Police have increased protection for the three leading candidates after they received death threats.

Peru Raids Homes Of Election Officials Over Voting Irregularities

Peru Raids Homes of Election Officials Over Voting Irregularities PERU Peru Peruvian police raided the homes of six election officials over the weekend, including former election chief Piero Corvetto, as part of an investigation into irregularities in the April 12 presidential vote that have deepened mistrust in the country’s electoral process. On Friday, anti-corruption officers searched the residence of a legal representative of Galaga, the company responsible for transporting ballots to polling stations, as well as Corvetto’s home. The former election chief resigned last week, taking responsibility for problems during the election and saying he wanted to “generate more confidence” ahead of the June 7 runoff. He has denied any wrongdoing. The raids follow logistical failures that forced authorities to extend voting by a day after election materials were not delivered to more than a dozen polling centers in Lima. More than 52,000 voters were unable to cast ballots as scheduled. The disruptions triggered accusations of fraud and manipulation, including from ultraconservative contender Rafael López Aliaga, who called Corvetto a “criminal.” With more than 95 percent of ballots counted, Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, leads the race with at least 17 percent of the vote. Leftist former lawmaker Roberto Sánchez follows with 12.03 percent, while López Aliaga has 11.90 percent. Despite calls to hold supplementary elections in affected areas, Peru’s Electoral Tribunal rejected the proposals and urged candidates to act “responsibly,” noting that the electoral process remained ongoing. The tribunal has set a May 15 deadline to confirm which two candidates will advance to the runoff. The election takes place amid prolonged political instability: Peru has had nine presidents in the past decade, including four former leaders who have been jailed. The country has also faced persistent corruption scandals and rising violence from criminal gangs. Observers noted that the latest controversy has further eroded public confidence in Peru’s governing system, where many politicians already face low approval ratings.

El Salvador Begins Trials Of 500 Gang Members And Leaders

El Salvador Begins Trial of Nearly 500 Alleged Gang Members and Leaders EL SALVADOR El Salvador on Monday launched a mass trial of 486 alleged members and leaders of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gang, accused of tens of thousands of crimes, including murders, in one of the largest proceedings under President Nayib Bukele’s sweeping anti-gang crackdown. Prosecutors said the defendants are collectively charged with more than 47,000 crimes committed between 2012 and 2022, including around 29,000 homicides, as well as extortion, drug and arms trafficking, femicide and disappearances. Authorities alleged the group sought to “establish a parallel state,” charging them with rebellion. Among those on trial are individuals linked to a surge of violence in March 2022, when 87 people were killed in a single weekend. Those on trial include senior and street-level gang leaders and coordinators. More than 400 suspects are already in custody, with 73 others being tried in absentia. Prosecutors said they have “ample evidence” to seek “maximum penalties,” though they did not specify sentencing details. The trial is part of Bukele’s “war on gangs,” launched in March 2022 under a state of emergency that expanded arrest powers and suspended some constitutional rights. Since then, more than 91,000 suspected gang members have been detained, with authorities crediting the campaign for a sharp drop in crime. MS-13, a transnational gang founded in Los Angeles in the 1980s and now largely based in Central America, has long been blamed for widespread violence. However, rights groups have criticized the crackdown, citing arbitrary detentions, lack of due process and more than 500 deaths in custody. Critics warned that mass trials risk punishing innocent individuals alongside the guilty.

Brasil: Another Bolsonaro Runs Against Lula

As Brazil Votes, Another Bolsonaro Seeks Power Amid Backlash Over Alignment With Trump BRAZIL Brazil Recently, as his father languished in prison for planning a coup, right-wing Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro appeared as a speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas. He told the audience that the charges against his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who sought to violently overturn the election won by leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, were politically motivated. Flávio Bolsonaro is now considered Lula’s main rival as Brazilians prepare to elect a new president on Oct. 4, with the two men neck and neck in the race. At the conference, Flávio Bolsonaro made his pitch. “Trump 2.0 is being much better than Trump 1.0, right?” he said. “Well, Bolsonaro 2.0 will also be much better.” Meanwhile, Lula is running for his fourth term, having previously served from 2003 to 2010 before his current stint. He, too, served time in prison after being convicted of corruption. However, the country’s top court annulled the charges, paving the way for his comeback. The two men are engaged in a lively campaign. Lula recently circulated a video of himself boxing and exercising, a clear dig at his 44-year-old opponent, who famously fainted on television during a 2016 debate. A socialist, Lula came to prominence in the wake of the collapse of the so-called Washington Consensus, a policy framework promoted by American thinkers centered on free enterprise and trade as the basis of economic growth, according to the Hoover Institution. Rejecting this view, he expanded the state’s role in the economy and pushed to redistribute wealth. He lifted millions out of poverty, but also clashed with Brazil’s conservative elites. Today, record tax revenues due to the country’s strong economy have helped Lula maintain his expensive spending plans, Bloomberg noted. Still, the opposition and the business community say the country is a disaster waiting to happen. “We’re not in the intensive-care unit, but we are moving towards that,” Armínio Fraga, a former boss of Brazil’s central bank, told the Economist. The problem, adds the British magazine, is unsustainable debt, especially from a generous pension system. The younger Bolsonaro, in contrast, would shrink government benefits while also cracking down on crime, which Brazilian voters say is one of their top issues. The candidate has called for the construction of “many, many prisons.” Meanwhile, he has also accused Lula of failing to cooperate with US President Donald Trump’s efforts to attack “narco-terrorists” across the region. Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira spoke by phone about potential US plans to designate Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho, major organized crime gangs, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, which would subject their members and supporters to sanctions. Brazil had rejected the move last year. Now the US is upping the pressure. Brazil’s resistance stems from concerns that the designation carries consequences that extend beyond law enforcement, wrote Americas Quarterly. “It could alter the legal and diplomatic context in which Brazil manages its own security while widening the reach of US sanctions, prosecutorial pressure and financial compliance into the Brazilian economy,” it said. “It could, in fact, carry greater consequences for other actors, including banks, companies and Brazilian politicians, than for the gangs themselves.” By contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro supports the FTO designation and closer coordination with the US’ new “Shield of the Americas” initiative, which involves joint military offensives against violent criminal gangs. However, analysts say the close association with Trump is what might cost Flávio Bolsonaro the election. Last year, Lula’s approval ratings rose after the Trump administration placed steep tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned officials in an unsuccessful attempt to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of prison. The measures were backed by the former president’s sons Flávio and Eduardo. Analysts say the move has fueled a backlash against the Bolsonaros. “There is growing popular anger directed at the Bolsonaro family for having advocated for US economic sanctions that harmed Brazil’s economy in a bid to protect their father,” World Politics Review wrote. “For those middle-ground voters, this is less about the general question of improving relations with the US, which many Brazilians would like to see happen, and much more about the specifics of how the Bolsonaros have gone about doing it.”

El Salvador Adopts New Law Allowing Life Sentences For Children

El Salvador Adopts New Law Allowing Life Sentences For Children EL SALVADOR El Salvador passed a law this week that allows judges to sentence minors as young as 12 to life in prison, part of a years-long crackdown on criminal gangs that has drastically reduced gang violence but has led to accusations of severe human rights violations. The measure, passed by the legislature controlled by President Nayib Bukele and his Nuevas Ideas party, will apply to sentencing for severe crimes such as homicide, terrorism and rape. The new law lifts certain legal protections for youth offenders and allows for periodic sentence reviews after decades served. The law is to take effect on April 26. Critics, which also include United Nations officials and human rights groups, say that the measure is abusive, inhumane and violates international human rights standards. However, Bukele casts those critics as soft on crime. Since March 2022, El Salvador has been under a state of emergency that has suspended certain civil liberties in favor of greater police and military powers to combat gang violence. Initially designed to last 30 days, the state of emergency has been renewed dozens of times. And since then, the government has carried out a campaign of mass arrest and imprisonment. More than 90,000 have been jailed in the notorious mega prison, the Terrorism Confinement Center, or CECOT, which houses prisoners in inhumane conditions, rights groups say. They add that some of these detainees were arbitrarily arrested and have been held without charges. Others have been processed in mass trials, a process approved in 2023 to allow up to 900 people to be tried at once. Lawyers say they lose track of their clients. Last month, the International Group of Experts for the Investigation of Human Rights Violations under the State of Emergency in El Salvador (GIPES) published a report, which accused the government of crimes against humanity. The report pointed to comments by Bukele acknowledging that “at least 8,000 detainees were innocent.” Meanwhile, the president has also been criticized for weakening checks and balances, repressing the media and dissent and undermining El Salvador’s fragile democracy. Last year, the legislature eliminated presidential term limits, paving the way for Bukele to remain in power indefinitely. Still, Bukele is highly popular with voters because his policies have sharply decreased homicide rates in a country long terrorized by gangs.