Venezuela Refuses To Collapse

SJ-21 Maneuvers by China’s SJ-21 in GEO, including moving a Beidou satellite out of the belt, is just one of the many Chinese space activities with counterspace implications. (credit: ExoAnalytic Solutions) Preventing a “Space Pearl Harbor”: Rep. Turner leads the charge by Brian G. Chow Monday, March 25, 2024 Bookmark and Share Accolades are due to House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner and the White House for a quick and amicable settlement of Russia’s developing space threat. It involved a balancing act between the American public’s need to know and the Biden Administration’s need for secrecy. If a Chinese spacecraft can dock with a friendly satellite to refuel, repair, or transport it, the same robotic arm can also disable a US satellite’s solar panels and antennas. On February 14, Turner asked that President Biden “declassify all information” relating to a “serious national security threat.” The very next day, the White House confirmed that Russia is developing an “anti-satellite weapon,” but “there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety.” On February 20, the public further learned that Russia is developing a “space-based nuclear anti-satellite weapon.” While it is a limited declassification, the administration rightly said that fuller disclosure could reveal to adversaries the sources and methods of how the US collects intelligence. Let’s hope that, on the heels of his recent success, Turner leads the charge to counter the most urgent national security threat facing the US and the free world: China’s use of a new kind of anti-satellite weapon to generate a “Space Pearl Harbor” as a precursor to seizing Taiwan sometime later this decade. While this scenario is drawing attention in the public, the Defense Department has not openly commented on it. Space Pearl Harbor is a surprise attack on critical US satellites that causes devastating impacts similar to those on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Dual-use robotic spacecraft will soon become the anti-satellite weapon of choice for mounting this attack. The development of such spacecraft that can dock with other satellites has been ongoing in the US since 1990 and in China since 2008, almost two decades behind. In February 2020, a US company successfully docked a robotic spacecraft with another friendly satellite. Less than two years later, China accomplished the same feat in January 2022, narrowing the gap on estimates from many US experts inside and outside of the government that it would take far longer for China to catch up. If a Chinese spacecraft can dock with a friendly satellite to refuel, repair, or transport it, the same robotic arm can also disable a US satellite’s solar panels and antennas. Alternatively, China can use these spacecraft to tow satellites into locations where they can, at best, only sub-optimally perform intended duties such as early warning, surveillance, or geolocation. Based on public commercial data that tells a lot about the military potential of these dual-use robotic spacecraft, we have shown that China can manufacture and deploy 200 such spacecraft as early as 2026, enough to cripple critical US satellites in geosynchronous, highly elliptical, and other orbits, and thus severely degrading space support to wartime operations. Will the US be ready to avert a surprise attack with robotic spacecraft that will likely arrive years ahead of expectations of so many space experts? The House Intelligence Committee and the Congress must make space readiness and governance a high priority on their current agenda. Turner’s next inquiries should focus on US preparedness against a Space Pearl Harbor. Although it is well known that such an attack on critical US satellites would cause untold devastation, the Defense Department has not disclosed to the American public details on the specific anti-satellite weapons and a plan for defense. It should first be clear that, before DoD can estimate the timing and magnitude of any potential surprise attack and develop a timely preparedness to counter it, it must specify which anti-satellite weapons and how many of them will be used in the attack. However, the Pentagon has not publicly revealed whether it has made that all-important specification. This raises public concerns that, at this late date, DoD might not have such a specification, whether classified or unclassified, even for its own internal use. This is not an empty worry: Gen. John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the second highest-ranking US military officer at the time, said on the eve of this retirement in October 2021 that “although we’re making marginal progress, the DoD is still unbelievably bureaucratic and slow” in its response to China’s rapidly advancing space weapons. If DoD’s preparedness to prevent Space Pearl Harbor is too slow, it is better to find out now than later so that DoD and others can catch up. As far back as 1985, nuclear strategist Albert Wohlstetter and I penned an op-ed, ”Arms Control That Could Work”. We considered that satellites can become anti-satellite spacecraft. We accordingly proposed a framework of self-defense zones to “facilitate unilateral defense against a surprise attack on satellites.” Since 2015, this space architecture has been updated to reflect the current and future space environment and advances in anti-satellite weapons such as dual-use robotic spacecraft discussed here. In June 2021, Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, testified before Congress that President Xi Jinping had ordered the Chinese military to accelerate its timeline for attaining the operational capability to seize Taiwan by force from 2035 to 2027.Turner has taken the vital initial step of bringing the issue of high-tech anti-satellite weaponry to current headlines and the forefront of American consciousness. With a capability to mount a Space Pearl Harbor as early as 2026, a key question is whether China can use this surprise attack as a precursor to enhance the already substantial odds of successfully seizing Taiwan. The House Intelligence Committee and the Congress must make space readiness and governance a high priority on their current agenda. Turner’s next inquiries should focus on US preparedness against a Space Pearl Harbor. Turner and others should first get classified briefings from DoD and the US intelligence community and then direct them to prepare a public disclosure on DoD’s plan to prevent and react to a Space Pearl Harbor. Specifically, the US plan must acknowledge China’s accelerated timetable of being capable to take Taiwan by force from 2035 to 2027. The public needs Congress to represent its national security interests and hold DoD accountable for both unclassified and classified disclosures. Turner sounded the alarm about Russia’s developing anti-satellite weapon out of fear that the Biden administration was “sleepwalking into an international crisis.” It is even more important for him to sound the alarm about China’s already developed anti-satellite weapon out of the same fear, making sure that DoD and others will be ready to prevent a Space Pearl Harbor and save Taiwan should aggression come sometime in the 2020s. Brian Chow (Ph.D. in physics, MBA with distinction, Ph.D. in finance) is an independent policy analyst with more than 180 publications. He can be reached at brianchow.sp@gmail.com.

Argentina-Day Of Remembrance

Divided, Past and Present ARGENTINA Thousands of Argentines on Sunday took part in an annual commemoration of the 1976 military coup that led to eight years of repression and thousands of deaths, while protesting President Javier Milei’s downplaying of the damage caused by the dictatorship, Reuters reported. The “Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice” occurs on the anniversary date of the army’s coup against President Isabel Perón on March 24, 1976. Every year, people take to the streets to remember those lost to the junta’s “dirty war” on political opponents. Around 30,000 people were killed, tortured, or disappeared between 1976 and 1983, according to human rights organizations’ figures. Protesters on Sunday carried photos of missing persons. They were opposition politicians, trade union members, students, and infants. Under the military dictatorship, babies were kidnapped and illegally adopted by other families. March 24 is usually commemorated in a festive and family-friendly atmosphere. However, this year’s demonstrations, the first to happen under Milei’s presidency, had a more aggressive tone, Agence France-Presse noted. Trade unions joined the protests amid unpopular austerity measures implemented by Milei. The president, a libertarian and self-described “anarcho-capitalist,” and conservative Vice-President Victoria Villaruel have faced criticism for downplaying the impact of the dictatorship by rejecting human rights organizations’ numbers, instead saying the number of victims was about 9,000. On Sunday, the government published a 12-minute video focusing on victims of communist guerilla attacks prior to the coup. “We are facing a denialist government,” activist Taty Almedia told Agence France Presse. Estela de Carlotto, head of a group fighting to find the junta’s stolen children, told Reuters she demanded a law punishing deniers of the dictatorship’s crimes. Since 2006, 1,176 people have been convicted for crimes related to the military’s rule, including crimes against humanity. But they have received support from Villaruel.

"book Him Danno!" Bolsonaro Indicted In Brasil

Piling Up BRAZIL Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was indicted Tuesday for falsifying Covid-19 vaccination records, marking the first indictment of the embattled conservative leader, the Associated Press reported. The federal police indictment, released by the Supreme Court, accused Bolsonaro and 16 others of manipulating public health data to falsely indicate vaccination. The accused allegedly aimed to secure fraudulent vaccination certificates, facilitating Bolsonaro’s travels – notably to the United States in December 2022, following his electoral defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The indictment underscores a broader pattern of controversy surrounding Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic. During his presidency, Bolsonaro drew criticism for downplaying the severity of the coronavirus and undermining vaccination efforts, aligning himself with a minority of world leaders who questioned the vaccine’s efficacy. His administration’s refusal of vaccine offers and criticism of vaccine procurement initiatives exacerbated Brazil’s pandemic response, the newswire wrote. While Bolsonaro’s legal team dismissed the charges as politically motivated, the indictment adds pressure on the far-right former leader, who is currently facing a series of investigations, including ones targeting his involvement in the Jan 8, 2023 uprising and others involving campaign finance misconduct. Last year, Brazil’s top electoral court barred the former president from running for office until 2030, after it concluded that he abused his power during the 2022 presidential campaign and cast unfounded doubts on the country’s electronic voting system. If found guilty of falsifying his health data, Bolsonaro could face up to 12 years in prison. Meanwhile, analysts noted that Bolsonaro continues to command a loyal base of supporters despite his mounting legal challenges.

The President Has Problems In Colombia

The Dream COLOMBIA The first-ever leftwing president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, 63, promised to make his country into a more equal society when he won office two years ago. Now the former guerrilla fighter and mayor of the capital of Bogota is struggling to maintain the public’s support. He reformed the tax code to be more fair, reestablished relations with neighboring Venezuela, and maintained good ties with the US, reported National Public Radio, noting that Colombia is a key player in the American war on drugs. Europe, a major cocaine market, is increasingly involved in that war, as a German government press release suggested. But he failed to reform the South American country’s healthcare sector, sought controversial peace with rebel groups, and became embroiled in corruption scandals. His defenders at Jacobin magazine argued that a coordinated rightwing opposition campaign has undermined his success. Thousands of Colombians took to the streets recently, for example, to protest against Petro’s proposed reforms in healthcare, pensions, labor relations and education, added Reuters. Others said he has played a role in creating the challenges that he now faces. “I think the difficulties of being the first leftist government in Colombia’s history have been augmented by self-inflicted wounds,” said Daniel García-Peña, who worked under Petro when he was mayor. “Many people who voted for Petro were expecting something very different.” He disappears frequently from public view, explained Americas Quarterly. He has purged the government of technocrats who don’t share his leftist vision, wrote Bloomberg. He has clashed with powerful institutions like the supreme court over his attorney general picks, noted Agence France-Presse. Petro is now negotiating with armed groups who have fought against Colombia’s central government for around 60 years, a conflict that has involved leftwing rebels, drug cartels, rightwing militant forces, and other players, claiming at least 450,000 lives. The government already signed a deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the primary rebel force, in 2016. This deal fostered peace and arguably paved the way for growth in the Colombian tourism industry, as the Telegraph described, and other perks. Petro also recently extended a ceasefire between the government and another rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), noted Al Jazeera. Founded by leftwing students in 1964, the ELN now has around 4,000 militant fighters overseeing gold mining and the drug trade in Colombia and Venezuela. The president won’t likely reach any new deals with another important rebel force, the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), however, before his term ends in 2026, a rebel leader told Reuters. FARC fighters who refused to sign a peace deal with the government created the EMC. Insight Crime likened the group to a mafia. It remains violent: On Sunday, Colombia suspended a truce with the EMC in three different parts of the country, citing an attack on an Indigenous group that left one woman dead and other violence, France24 reported. Petro has also been plagued by scandals involving his family. His eldest son, Nicolás Petro, was indicted on Jan. 11 for allegedly diverting donations from drug traffickers meant for his father’s presidential campaign. His brother, Juan Fernando Petro, is under investigation for allegedly soliciting payments from jailed drug dealers in exchange for judicial favors from the Petro administration. And his wife, First Lady Verónica Alcocer, is facing scrutiny in the Colombian media for her extravagant spending. Still, his defenders say in spite of these setbacks, the president is making headway on tough, long-running problems. But others say he should try a little harder to actually govern.

Cuba: The Hungary Island

The Hungry Island CUBA Rare demonstrations broke out across Cuba this week over rising power outages and food shortages, as the Caribbean nation continues to grapple with economic malaise, the Financial Times reported Monday. On Sunday, a small group of protesters took to the streets of Santiago, the island nation’s second-largest city, calling for “power and food.” Protests also took place in other provinces of the Communist country, where demonstrations are rare and usually suppressed. President Miguel Díaz-Canel blamed the unrest on the “mediocre politicians and social media terrorists” in the neighboring United States, where many Cuban exiles live. Cuba has been grappling with an energy and economic crisis for years that has worsened following the Covid-19 pandemic. The US has maintained a decades-long trade embargo against Havana that was first imposed not long after the revolution led by late communist leader Fidel Castro in the late 1950s. Since then, relations between the two countries have remained tense, prompting Havana to rely on its alliances with Russia and Venezuela – both under US sanctions – for fuel and food. Last month, the government raised petrol and diesel prices by more than 400 percent in an effort to stabilize the economy. Also in February, it requested food aid from the United Nations World Food Programme, a rare admission by the Caribbean country that it was unable to produce enough food for its population. Although protests seldom occur in the communist country, mass demonstrations swept the island in 2021 over the floundering economy – the largest since Castro’s revolution. Authorities launched a crackdown against demonstrators that resulted in hundreds of arrests and more than 700 criminal charges. At least 400,000 Cubans have sought refuge in the US since 2021.

Corruption Upheaval In Peru

THE WORLD, BRIEFLY Ain’t Misbehavin’ PERU Peru’s prime minister resigned Tuesday after he was allegedly heard in a leaked recording attempting to give government contracts to his mistress, kicking off yet another political crisis in the country which has seen six presidents in the past six years, the BBC reported. Over the weekend, a local television network aired the audio clips reportedly of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola, 56, and a woman identified as Yaziré Pinedo, 25. Pinedo won two contracts worth $14,000 from the Defense Ministry last year. Otárola was the head of the ministry until President Dina Boluarte tasked him with leading the government at the end of 2022. In the recording, he allegedly was heard asking Pinedo for her CV and saying he loved her. Pinedo admitted having had a short relationship with Otárola, who is married with five children, Al Jazeera noted. Nonetheless, both said the conversation was from 2021, before Otárola was appointed cabinet minister. As a formal probe was launched into the allegations, the prime minister denied the accusations. In his resignation speech, he accused political opponents of editing the audio as part of a plot to tarnish his image. He justified his resignation by saying he wanted to give the president “tranquility” ahead of reshuffling her cbinet. Boluarte had ordered Otárola to return from his official visit to Canada after the scandal broke. Peruvian law provides that one cabinet minister’s departure triggers the resignation of the entire 18-member cabinet. The president then has the option to reinstate them. The scandal and ensuing resignation are the latest of a long series of government reshuffles for Boluarte, who has faced one crisis after another. She inherited Peru’s top job in 2022 from the left-leaning Pedro Castillo, who was deposed and arrested after trying to dissolve parliament and rule by decree. The ensuing protests calling on her to step down led to a crackdown by the authorities that killed at least 50 people, according to Human Rights Watch. Investigations into Boluarte’s actions and the deaths continue. Meanwhile, local polls show that 75 percent of Peruvians want President Boluarte to resign, wrote the Council on Foreign Relations, which itself would lead to the seventh president since 2018. Share this story

Milei Shutters Telam

First Blood ARGENTINA The Argentine government suspended the Telam state news agency this week, part of a plan by libertarian President Javier Milei to shutter the 80-year-old agency that he deems to be a mouthpiece of “propaganda” for prior leftist administrations, Agence France-Presse reported. Officials said Monday they were finalizing plans for the closure of the agency – but denied that the decision had to do with “freedom of expression or press freedom.” They added that the agency had suffered losses of up to $23 million in 2024, without giving details. Milei told the Argentinian congress last week that Telam has been “used for decades as an agency of Kirchnerist propaganda” – referring to the leftist political ideology of former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, and her husband Nestor, also a former president. Telam journalists said the government had fenced off two of the agency’s buildings and surrounded them with police over the weekend. On Monday, hundreds of people protested the closure outside Telam’s headquarters in the capital Buenos Aires. The agency – created in 1945 by then Labor Secretary Juan Domingo Peron, who later became Argentina’s president – employs more than 700 people. It published hundreds of news articles and photos daily, as well as content for video and radio clients. Telam supporters said the agency was “the only one” to report on events in remote provinces, such as Santiago del Estero or Tierra del Fuego. Its closure comes after the government said it would “modify” the structure of all state media, as part of Milei’s efforts to shake up or shut state institutions since taking office in December. Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist,” won a resounding victory in last year’s elections fueled by public anger over Argentina’s prolonged economic crisis. His agenda includes drastic cuts in state spending, economic deregulation, and the closure of government-funded organizations he deems unnecessary.