Venezuela: A Tipping Point?

VENEZUELA

A Tipping Point?

How long can it go on this way in Venezuela?

The economy contracted by 18 percent last year and by a third between 2013 and 2017, according to Al Jazeera. Inflation could hit 10 million percent – that’s not a typo – this summer. Three million people have left the country since 2015.

“The public health system is in ruins,” wrote Al Jazeera. “Life-saving medicines, electricity and clean water are in short supply. Food is scarce. Malnutrition is widespread.”

Now a full-fledged political crisis has struck the country.

Last month, as NPR explained, National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó declared that he was interim president under Venezuelan law. He was probably right, argued Lawfare, a blog published in cooperation with the Brookings Institution.

Still, the move was undoubtedly a political challenge to President Nicolás Maduro.

Guaidó made his move after around one million Venezuelans took to the streets following his call for demonstrations against Maduro’s rule. He wanted to make sure the people backed him. Further putting pressure on Maduro, the US, Argentina, Brazil, Canada and other countries also recognized Guaidó.

Maduro is a follower of Hugo Chavez, the socialist leader whoimproved the country’s social welfare system but left it exceedingly vulnerable to low oil prices, setting the stage for the country’s troubles today. But Chavez and Maduro also solidified their cabal’s control over the government. Maduro is not inclined to leave.

Guaidó has acknowledged that he needs one more constituency to oust Maduro: the military. He’s offered commanders and their troops amnesty for crimes they have committed under the incumbent president if they turn on their leader.

“The military’s withdrawal of support from Mr. Maduro is crucial to enabling a change in government, and the majority of those in service agree that the country’s recent travails are untenable,” hewrote in an extraordinary op-ed in the New York Times.

The military has yet to act, though rank-and-file soldiers have been deserting in droves since before Guaido’s plea, Bloomberg noted.

The US is ramping up the pressure. Citgo, one of the largest petroleum refiners in the US, is owned by Venezuela’s state oil company. With facilities in Texas, Louisiana and Illinois, it has provided Maduro with foreign cash and chemicals needed to process Venezuelan oil. But US sanctions require the US-based company to put its profits into a US bank that Maduro can’t access, the Washington Post reported.

Abraham Lowenthal, founding director of the nonpartisan Wilson Center’s Latin American Program, noted that the US can’t change Venezuela single-handedly. In an NBC News opinion piece, he said the US and other nations could facilitate change by promising aid if and when Maduro goes.

Lowenthal’s suggestion is one of many floating around. The point is, plan for change.