Cuba: Will He Stay Or Will He Go?

CUBA

Will He Stay or Will He Go?

Just before Christmas, the Cuban government postponed a historic presidential election in which longtime leader Raúl Castro was expected to step down.

Initially slated for February, the vote was delayed until April, prompting speculation about the country’s future, the Miami Herald reported.

All that is certain is that Castro will remain in power at least until April 19, the date now set for election of a new legislature and the president of the Councils of State and Ministers, positions now held by the brother of the late revolutionary leader, Fidel Castro.

Some speculate that Raúl Castro will stay on after the election to deal with a sluggish economy, the devastation resulting from Hurricane Irma and the new reality of relations with Washington under the administration of US President Donald Trump.

“I know very well how they think and react,” the Herald quoted a former Cuban intelligence analyst who now lives in Miami as saying of Castro and his team. “To me, it’s inconceivable facing the current circumstances that they would retire.”

But such speculation “is to misread the man,” the Economist suggested.

The Economist and others argue that Castro’s options aren’t limited to retirement or remaining in office. Citing his work to institutionalize the communist regime with an orderly administration and collective leadership, the Economist noted that Castro has groomed Miguel Díaz-Canel as his replacement – and that Díaz-Canel would continue to answer to Castro behind the scenes.

The process is more selection than election, Osmel Ramirez Alvarez argues in the Havana Times, an independent online magazine based in Nicaragua.

“Díaz-Canel returned three months ago to make regular appearances in front of cameras and microphones, and nothing is coincidence in Cuba’s official journalism. And in recent weeks, his appearances have intensified,” Alvarez noted.

A handpicked “nomination committee” will decide who’s on the ballot. Castro will continue to have power as the head of the communist party. He is giving up his administrative position but not his political one. And he is likely to remain the head of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces or pass that position to his son.

Still, the election will be “an unprecedented event that hasn’t happened since 1976,” Alvarez said.

Castro’s supervision won’t be the only tricky issue for Díaz-Canel, however.

Assuming things go as expected, he’ll take office amid a rough patch in US-Cuban relations, following controversies over alleged “sonic attacks” on US diplomatic staff stationed in Havana and Trump’s pullback from the rapprochement brokered by his predecessor.

Of perhaps greater concern, new evidence suggests that the Cuban economy is in worse shape than previously claimed – with a GDP per capita of barely half the officially reported figure and only a third of the Latin American average. And the turmoil in Venezuela threatens to cut off a major lifeline.

Castro’s frustrated constituents could also present some problems.

“Whoever succeeds Castro will be called upon to balance the desires of Cuban hardliners and those who want the Cuban economy to open more and the outreach to the United States to continue,” the Economist concluded.