Chile-Upstaging Ghosts

 

Upstaging Ghosts

CHILE

If the legacy of General Augusto Pinochet’s cruel rule haunted Chile for years, the ghost of his predecessor, the late leftwing Chilean President Salvador Allende, is now getting its chance to do the same.

Pinochet seized power in a coup that unseated Allende in 1973. As the National Security Archive showed using US government documents, the CIA backed the general’s violent rise to power because American officials feared Allende’s socialist policies might succeed and demonstrate their effectiveness amid the ideological conflicts of the Cold War.

Until 1990, Pinochet led the country with an iron fist that promoted economic growth at the expense of human rights, particularly those of leftists who opposed his brand of free-market capitalism. Remaining as commander in chief of the army through 1998 and a senator until 2002, he died in 2006 before answering for his crimes.

The recent victory of leftist candidate and ex-student activist, Gabriel Boric, who at 35 will be the youngest person to become the Chilean president, over far-right populist José Antonio Kast could be the end of the era that Pinochet created.

The election presented Chilean voters with diametrically opposed visions for “the economy, the rights of historically marginalized groups and public safety,” wrote the New York Times. Boric called Kast a fascist who wanted to empower the police, expand the prison system and crack down on indigenous communities asserting their rights. Kast claimed Boric wanted to turn Chile into Venezuela, where an authoritarian socialist regime has ruined the economy.

As the Washington Post explained, Boric has vowed to “bury” the neoliberal policies that Pinochet enshrined in the country’s 1981 constitution. Following civil unrest over inequality, lawmakers are now drafting a new document.

“We are a generation that emerged in public life demanding our rights be respected as rights and not treated like consumer goods or a business,” Boric said in the capital of Santiago recently, according to the Guardian.

The question now is whether his policies will work when the Chilean economy is slowing due to ongoing protests and the coronavirus pandemic. Chilean stocks fell after Boric’s win as nervous investors worried that Chile’s pro-business, conservative fiscal policies might change, Bloomberg reported.

Boric moved to reassure them. He, for example, is already “softening” his plans for reforming pensions, expanding the social safety net, implementing universal health insurance, increasing taxes on companies and the rich, and spending big on green technologies, the BBC noted.

The new president has vowed not to allow foreign pressure to undermine Chile’s democracy when he takes office in March. That might be an impossible task.

If Argentina Reinvaded The Falkans, Could Britain Still Take It Back?

 

History Mystery

Answered by 

Luke Murphy

 

Nov 8

If Argentina re-invaded the Falklands, would Britain still be in a position to take back the islands?

Well last time we didn’t have this:

Armed with these:

Backed up by these:

With these Hunter-killers sneaking around nearby:

With help from these:

Soon to be replaced by these

And these

In the mid 2020s with another type 32 introduced by 2030 meaning 18 frigates operational by 2035 that are all brand new, 13 of which ready by the mid 2020s

Along with new supply ship supports from the tide class:

Versus this:

Over 30 years old and only 3 with the 4th not being seen in years as it’s been most likely mothballed…

With 6 corvettes:

No submarines

some offshore patrol vessels (the newest vessels in the fleet:

Aircraft?

I mean they said it would be impossible last time and we didn’t have the technology nor the capability we have today. So you tell me - do you really think we wouldn’t be able to retake them again? Argentina in the meantime has basically became a failed state, if such an attempt was dared again I wouldn’t want to be the Argentinians… it would basically go about as well as this fool of a took attempting to take down Gandalf:

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Sarthak Khatri

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Chile-Andean Civil War

 

Andean Cold War

CHILE

Chileans will head to the polls this weekend to vote on who will become the country’s next president in a runoff that some political analysts consider a race between communism and fascism, Reuters reported.

The runoff will see leftist former student leader Gabriel Boric battling far-right conservative Jose Antonio Kast. It comes a month after Chile’s first round of elections saw Kast take a lead against Boric.

Even so, opinion polls have favored Boric but noted that the race will be close.

Boric has come under fire over his alliance with Chile’s Communist Party. He also inspires fear that his economic policies could affect the free-market rules that propelled the copper-rich country to decades of growth and made it a symbol of economic stability in Latin America.

Kast, meanwhile, has received criticism over his praise for, and his family’s connections to, the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet. Also, the Associated Press recently discovered documents that revealed that Kast’s German-born father, Michael, was a member of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Party.

The Dec. 19 election comes about two years after Chile experienced months-long mass protests over inequality economic inequalities that eventually sparked an ongoing process to redraft the Pinochet-era constitution.

An assembly of mainly independent and leftist representatives is working on the constitutional redraft. Whoever wins the runoff will also have to handle a referendum on whether to approve the new charter during their first year in office.

Mexico Moves To Ban Bull Fighting!

 

Besties

CHINA AND RUSSIA

The leaders of Russia and China met in a virtual summit Wednesday, a meeting seen as an effort to boost the relationship between the two nations amid deteriorating relations with Western nations and economic sanctions, the Associated Press reported.

Officials from both sides said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, spoke about buttressing relations between the two countries. They also addressed recent security issues, including Moscow’s heightened tensions with the West over Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s border.

Putin said that Russia needs assurances that NATO will not expand to Ukraine or deploy its forces there. The Kremlin has previously said it has no plans to invade Ukraine and blamed the latter for tensions because of its move to mobilize troops to the country’s war-torn east.

During the meeting, Xi said that he “understands Russia’s concerns and fully supports our initiative to work out these security guarantees for Russia.”

The Chinese leader was also quoted saying that both countries “need to carry out more joint actions to more effectively safeguard our security and interests.”

Putin and Xi also agreed to meet in Beijing in February during the 2022 Winter Olympics. Multiple Western nations, including the United States, Canada and Britain, have refused to send officials to the event as part of a diplomatic boycott because of China’s human rights record.

Wednesday’s summit underscores recent efforts by both countries to foster closer ties with each other to counter US dominance in the international sphere. Both countries have been subjected to Western sanctions: Russia over its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and its poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny; China over the treatment of its Muslim Uyghurs and crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.

The recent meeting was also seen as a counter to the Biden administration’s “Summit for Democracy” last week. The summit was widely seen as an effort to build a united front against authoritarian governments such as those in Russia and China, according to the New York Times.

El Salvador-Of Faustian Bargains

 

Of Faustian Bargains

EL SALVADOR

El Salvadoran officials secretly negotiated a truce with leaders of the country’s powerful street gangs for their political support, according to the US Treasury, an accusation that risks escalating already tense relations between the two nations, the Associated Press reported.

The recent allegations suggest that officials in President Nayib Bukele’s government offered financial benefits and privileges to imprisoned leaders of MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs in 2020 including prostitutes and cellphones “to ensure that incidents of gang violence and the number of confirmed homicides remained low.”

The two officials who conducted the negotiations were Osiris Luna Meza, chief of the Salvadoran Penal System and vice minister of justice and public security, and Carlos Amilcar Marroquin Chica, chairman of the Social Fabric Reconstruction Unit. The US Treasury initiated sanctions against both.

Bukele, in response, took to social media to deny the accusations and questioned the evidence behind the allegations.

The recent announcement comes more than a year after the local news site El Faro reported that Bukele’s government negotiated with gang leaders. Then, lawmakers from his party removed former Attorney General Raul Melara after the latter said he would investigate the El Faro report.

The new accusations come as Bukele faces criticism over his administration’s authoritarian style.

His party secured a majority of seats in the country’s congress following legislative elections earlier this year. In May, the new congress removed Melara and the justices of the constitutional chamber of the Supreme Court, a move that raised concerns in Washington over the direction of the country.

Those lawmakers are now pushing for a “foreign agents” law that many fear will be used to restrict the work of independent journalists and civil society organizations, according to Human Rights Watch.

Chile-We Do!

 

We Do

CHILE

Chilean lawmakers overwhelmingly voted to approve marriage equality this week, a vote that would make Chile the latest Latin American country to recognize same-sex marriage, NPR reported.

Both houses of parliament approved the draft legislation, which was first introduced in 2017 by then-President Michelle Bachelet. Current President Sebastián Piñera had initially opposed the legislation.

But in June, he changed his stance, announcing that “the time has come for marriage equality in our country.” He is expected to sign the bill into law before he leaves office in March.

Chile’s current laws allow gay couples to unite under a Civil Union Pact, which gives them most of the same rights as married couples but denies them the right to adopt.

The new legislation will extend parental rights to gay parents and expand spousal benefits and adoption rights for married same-sex couples.

The law makes Chile the eighth Latin American country to allow same-sex marriage, as well as the 31st worldwide.

The parliamentary approval came less than two weeks before a contentious presidential run-off that will pit far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast against Gabriel Boric, a leftist former student leader.

D

My Private Inteligence Service Issues A Report on Chile

 

In Chile, a Political Revolution 30 Years in the Making

9 MIN READDec 2, 2021 | 21:00 GMT

A protester holds a piece of cloth reading "New Constitution or Nothing" during a demonstration in Santiago, Chile, on Oct. 22, 2019.

(PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images)

For over 30 years, Chile’s predictable politics and free-market economics have made it a beacon of stability in an often turbulent region. Recent developments, however, suggest that may soon change.

In May, Chileans elected a left-wing body to draft the country’s new constitution — a concession offered by the government after massive demonstrations in 2019 saw calls for social and political change. And on Dec. 19, Chileans will head back to the polls to elect either a solidly left- or right-wing president after more moderate candidates were eliminated in the first round of the presidential vote on Nov. 21. 

The polarized presidential race, along with the ratification of a new constitution (and the appointment of a heavily slanted assembly to draft it), reflects the extent to which Chilean politics have changed in recent years. But this shift has been a long time coming. 

30 Years of Centrist Politics

Chile transitioned to democracy in March 1990 with the election of President Patricio Aylwin, ending the 17-year reign of General Augusto Pinochet’s repressive military dictatorship. Aylwin kept the 1980 constitution, which favors private sector procurement of infrastructure projects and social services. He also continued economic liberalization and fiscal discipline, which began under the Pinochet regime with heavy influence from U.S. economic schools of thought. Aylwin led a coalition of center-left political parties that would go on to govern Chile for 24 of the past 31 years. 

In response to growing left-wing influence in Alwyn’s coalition, Chilean politics shifted to the center-right in 2010, seeing pro-business Sebastian Pinera elected for two separate presidential terms in 2010 and 2018. During this period, Chile’s political spectrum oscillated between center-right and center-left coalitions, with the former promoting free-market ideals and the latter implementing social programs benefiting the poor and the growing middle-class. The dominance of the two centrist blocs kept Chile’s political risk relatively low, as neither was interested in fundamentally changing the pro-market policies that had helped fuel the country’s rapid economic growth following the ousting of the military dictatorship.  

Chile’s GDP grew an average of 5% per year between 1990-2020. With fiscally disciplined governments at the helm, the Chilean economy benefited from low public-sector debt and low inflation rates. Leveraging its long coastline and access to Pacific markets, the country signed free trade agreements with global economic powerhouses such as the United States and China. Foreign capital also flowed into the country to take advantage of the abundant copper supply. Domestic investment, meanwhile, flourished under government subsidies. 

During this three-decade boom, Chile’s middle class grew and its poverty rate fell from 40% to 10%. But many still felt that the country’s free-market system was essentially unequal, as the windfall of foreign investment largely benefited the wealthy while increasing the cost of living for everyone else.

The Chilean government sold land and water rights to private firms and placed the country’s pension system, healthcare and education sectors under the care of the private sector — which charged sky-high service fees. Exorbitant out-of-pocket health and education bills, in turn, drove many middle-class Chileans into massive debt — fueling fears that they may end up living in poverty like their parents. 

The Breaking Point 

Beginning in 2009, a series of widely publicized scandals over price-fixing of basic necessities like chicken and toilet paper sullied Chileans’ views on private sector dominance. The scandals also contributed to the growing perception that the country was being ruled by a corrupt political elite. Student groups and blue-collar workers protested over perceived societal inequalities, while Mapuche Indigenous collectives began to organize to reclaim their ancestral lands from foreign firms. 

Student protests over a subway price hike and police violence served as the catalyst for 
massive nationwide demonstrations that began in October 2019 and lasted up until early 2020. Chile’s protest movement saw violent clashes between the country’s militarized police force and protesters, damage to critical infrastructure and the looting of shops and businesses. Over 1.5 million people, just under 10% of Chile’s population, attended a protest on Oct. 25, 2019, calling for the resignation of President Sebastian Piñera.

Though the protests were originally organized by youth leaders, several subsets of society joined, including Indigenous groups. Members of the now-large Chilean middle class also took to the streets, frustrated at paying premium rates for road and water use. 

Chile’s Mapuche Peoples

Despite making up 12% of Chile’s population, the Indigenous Mapuche peoples are not formally recognized by the current constitution or the state. Their presence in the country has contributed to societal divides along racial lines. The private sector’s continued refusal to sign over land rights has pushed the Mapuche to resort to violence against business infrastructure, specifically the logging industry.

 

To quell the protests, the Chilean Congress approved a referendum to rewrite the country’s constitution in October 2020. During the referendum campaign, the anti-establishment left took advantage of the public's discontent to push a message of societal change and a broadened social safety net, growing a following among youth and the middle class. 

While protests came to a stop, societal tensions remained strong. Chile’s economy shrunk 5.8% in 2020 amid the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating the existing inequalities. The upper class was able to continue working remotely, while the nearly 6 million Chileans with informal jobs in the service sector (most of whom middle- and low-wage workers) struggled to make ends meet. 

Against this backdrop, Chilean voters appointed a left-wing body to draft the new constitution in May 2021, fueling fears among the business class about the country’s economic future. In the face of a constitutional rewrite, center-right voters have also grown more extreme in their commitment to protecting Chile’s free-market principles. 

One Country, Two Visions 

In the aftermath of the pandemic, Chile has seen two political movements on opposite ends of the spectrum gain significant public backing. On the left, the student and Indigenous leaders have become prominent political figures, pulling the ideology of the Concertacion coalition further from the center. And on the right, many voters have abandoned the traditional center-right coalition in favor of the far-right Republican Party, which defends pro-business policy and is starkly against immigration. 

These developments are representative of two competing visions for Chile’s future. The first is the leftist dream of a country where the government would provide an expansive safety net by reallocating services such as education, health care and the pension system into the public sector — even if it means greater global isolation and less foreign investment. Funding this vision would require raising taxes and tariffs on industry at the risk of violating several free trade agreements (most notably the Trans-Pacific Partnership) and prompting global powers like China to reduce their reliance on the country’s exports. Ownership of Chile’s natural resources — including water and land rights — would also be restored to the state and Indigenous communities, stripping private firms of these assets.

The right-wing's dream, by contrast, is of a country that remains globally open to business but closed to immigrants. Under this vision, social services and land rights would remain in the hands of private firms, which would ensure Chile retains its liberalized trade and global economic reach. Additionally, the state would increase security measures in an effort to combat the growing influence of regional criminal groups in the country. Chile would also adopt nationalistic policies, including stricter immigration laws, as Chileans seek to protect their jobs and resources from regional waves of migrants. Politicians would likely acquiesce on some social issues, such as formally recognizing Mapuche Indigenous and ensuring gender parity among leadership, but would refrain from substantive action to reallocate resources. 

An Uncertain Future

This clash of visions will be on full display during the Dec. 19 presidential runoff election, with Gabriel Boric from the “Apruebo Dignidad” (I Approve Dignity) coalition representing the left-wing’s dream of expanded social services funded by corporate taxes, and Jose Antonio Kast from the Republican Party representing the right-wing’s dream of a free-market economy with fewer illegal immigrants.

But regardless of who wins the presidential race, the proposed constitution is likely to fall in line with the leftist vision for Chile, given the ideological composition of the body currently drafting it. 
The new constitution, which the assembly is expected to unveil in late 2022, will probably strip away many private sector benefits and address pressing issues of Indigenous representation, land and water rights. After the draft is ready, Chile will then hold a final referendum to reject or approve the draft. This will provide another trigger for political clashes, as the extreme-right camp will likely rally against the ratification of the draft, in favor of keeping the Pinochet-era constitution and its private-sector protections.

Households, companies and investors in Chile — once one of the most stable countries in South America — will increasingly find themselves in the throes of uncertainty.

These upcoming events portend a period of political and social instability in Chile with increased economic and security risks. The country’s growing polarization will make it harder for politicians to reach agreements, which will almost certainly disrupt and potentially stall the policymaking process. In the short term, this is likely to pose an increased threat to the country’s macroeconomic policy and demonstrations will heighten the threat of the country’s security outlook. Political polarization may also inhibit lawmakers’ ability to face long-term challenges such as ensuring sustainable economic growth and adapting to endemic COVID-19. It could threaten the country’s ability to take full advantage of the global energy transition as well, as the growing threat of climate change increases global demand for Chile’s abundant copper and lithium resources, which are key to electric vehicle production. But legislative gridlock resulting from clashes between increasingly polarized left- and right-wing politicians may threaten Chile’s ability to move up the value chain beyond raw materials exports.

Chile will also likely see the reemergence of frequent protests as the two visions compete. Should the far-right gain political prominence (by, for example, Kast winning the presidential election), the country’s far-left student movement and Indigenous groups are likely to reignite nationwide demonstrations. And if the new leftist politicians are unable to deliver policy or collaborate often with centrists, Chile’s extreme-left anarchist, Marxist and Indigenous groups are likely to increase the frequency of targeted attacks against the state and industry — furthering the country’s instability. As a result, households, companies and investors in Chile — once one of the most stable countries in South America — will increasingly find themselves in the throes of uncertainty.

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