Dear Brasilian Friends And Family Members:
I did some thinking last night about who could be your next president. Brasilians are enraged over corruption and a crime rate that has gone totally out of control. (By the way Brasil has the 4th largest prison population on earth; the US is #1) With his 17 years in the army and tough talk, voters see him as the man to stop corruption and to get the crime rate under control. The voters want "a strong man." (By the way, this was the same mindset that put Trump into office.)
What I see is a man who will govern like President Duarte in the Philippines. Of course, he will get even tougher on corruption but with an ulterior motive. If he discredits and jails all his opposition with corruption charges, he will retain power for quite a while.
Now let us look at how things could get really ugly on a scale worse than the military government of the 1960's and 70's. Like Duarte, he could order extra-judicial executions of drug dealers and drug users. He could look to a major gang-controlled and crime infested area like the Rio favelas. It is not out of the realm of possibility that in Rio for example, two divisions of the army supported by artillery, armored vehicles, and attack helicopters could open a relentless attack designed to crush the gangs once and for all. Sadly along with gang members killed hundreds or thousands of civilians would die.
This is only a possibility right now. It is a frightening one.
