Brasil: Top Court Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro Over Efforts To Influence Father's Coup Trial

Brazil’s Top Court Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro Over Effort to Influence Father’s Coup Trial BRAZIL Brazil Brazil’s Supreme Court on Tuesday sentenced Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, to four years and two months in prison for lobbying the United States to intervene in his father’s coup trial, deepening the legal troubles facing one of the country’s most influential political families. A panel of Supreme Court justices found that Eduardo Bolsonaro had attempted to pressure Brazilian authorities by seeking US sanctions if proceedings against his father did not end favorably. The court also barred him from holding public office for eight years, a decision he may appeal. Eduardo Bolsonaro – the ex-president’s third son – lives in the United States and has been one of the most vocal defenders of his father. Prosecutors had accused him of seeking support from US President Donald Trump and using foreign pressure to influence the case. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes said it was not the role of a Brazilian lawmaker “to lobby abroad against their own country,” while Justice Cristiano Zanin called Eduardo Bolsonaro’s actions “illegitimate and criminal.” Eduardo Bolsonaro said the case was intended to remove him from running in the upper house elections later this year, when he had planned to run as a substitute Senate candidate. He previously served as a lawmaker in the lower house of Congress but was stripped of his seat in December because of excessive absences. Jair Bolsonaro, the former conservative leader, was found guilty in September for plotting a coup against his leftist rival President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after losing the 2022 elections. He is now serving a 27-year prison sentence. Bolsonaro’s conviction follows a period of tensions between Brasília and Washington: Last year, Trump – an ally of the Bolsonaro family – imposed tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctioned de Moraes as punishment for what he called a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro. Those measures were later lifted following an official meeting between Trump and Lula. The ruling comes as Brazil prepares for presidential elections in October. Polls suggest Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, could face a tight race.

Peru: Fujimori Poised To Win By A Razon Thin Majority

Fujimori Poised to Win by Razor-Thin Margin as Rival Contests Results PERU Peru Keiko Fujimori appeared poised to win Peru’s presidential runoff by an extremely narrow margin, although her leftist rival Roberto Sánchez is contesting the result and claiming victory. With more than 98 percent of votes counted from the June 7 election, the right-wing contender overtook Sánchez with a little more than 50 percent of the vote, a lead of only a few hundred ballots out of nearly 20 million cast. Sánchez has not conceded defeat, and some of his allies have alleged fraud without providing evidence. Sánchez said he would defend his “popular victory.” The outcome remains unresolved as electoral authorities are reviewing requests from both campaigns to invalidate thousands of votes over alleged irregularities. As many as 400,000 ballots have been flagged for issues ranging from illegible handwriting and missing signatures to stains. Most of the disputed votes come from Lima, neighboring Callao and overseas voting districts, where Fujimori has received more than 60 percent support. Election officials expect to announce the final results by mid-July. International observers have dismissed allegations of electoral irregularities. The prospect of a Fujimori victory has generated both celebration and concern among Peruvians because of memories of her father, Alberto Fujimori, who governed from 1990 to 2000. His administration was credited with combating a Maoist insurgency and tackling hyperinflation, but it ultimately collapsed amid corruption and human-rights scandals. Allies say Keiko Fujimori shares her father’s law-and-order approach and support for free-market policies but rejects his authoritarian tendencies. She has pledged to respect Peru’s one-term presidential limit. Critics, however, blame her for contributing to years of political instability while serving as an opposition leader. Peru has had nine presidents in the past decade, and Fujimori would become the country’s 10th if the result is confirmed. Even so, analysts cautioned that she would inherit a country facing years of political turmoil and could encounter strong resistance from the opposition.

Peru's Presidential Runoff Too Close To Call

Peru’s Presidential Runoff Remains Too Close to Call PERU Peru Peru’s presidential runoff remained too close to call Tuesday, with leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez holding a razor-thin lead over conservative rival Keiko Fujimori as officials continued counting ballots and awaited votes from Peruvians living abroad. With roughly 95 percent of tally sheets processed, Sánchez had about 50.1 percent of the vote compared with 49.9 percent for Fujimori, a margin of around 30,000 to 40,000 votes depending on the stage of the count. The outcome remains uncertain because most overseas ballots have yet to be counted. More than one million Peruvians were eligible to vote abroad and expatriate voters have historically favored right-wing candidates. Analysts, investors and pollsters said the foreign vote could ultimately decide the election and potentially overturn Sánchez’s narrow lead. One analyst noted that the votes still outstanding are “mostly in Keiko’s favor.” Only a small share of overseas ballots had been counted as of Monday, while thousands of tally sheets from remote regions and foreign polling stations were still being processed. Fujimori, seeking the presidency for a fourth time after losing runoff elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021, urged patience and said “every tally sheet” would be important. She also pledged to respect the final result. The election authority has warned that officially declaring a winner could take weeks because of legal challenges and Peru’s vote-counting procedures. The race has highlighted Peru’s deep political divisions. Sánchez, of the Juntos por el Perú alliance, is an ally of jailed former president Pedro Castillo and has pledged to pardon him if elected. Fujimori is the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who was convicted of crimes against humanity and corruption. The uncertainty has already generated political and market reactions. Colombian President Gustavo Petro prematurely celebrated a Sánchez victory, while financial markets appeared to be pricing in a possible Fujimori comeback once overseas votes are counted. The winner will take office on July 28 and inherit a country struggling with insecurity and political instability. Peru has had nine presidents in the past decade.

Venezuela: Nearly Six Months After Maduro's Ouster, It's All About Oil

Nearly Six Months After Maduro’s Ouster, It’s All About Oil VENEZUELA Venezuela The coastal city of Cumaná in eastern Venezuela once pumped out Toyota Land Cruisers and metal cans for the tuna and sardines that local fishermen caught. Today, after years of socialist rule that started with Hugo Chávez in 1999, the former economic powerhouse is a shadow of its former self. “Drinking water in Cumaná is running extremely low,” wrote the New York Times. “Daily blackouts plague the city. Wind howls through the looted remains of its once illustrious university. Scavengers sift through garbage dumps for scraps of food.” The decay in Cumaná captures the crisis now confronting Venezuela’s leader, acting President Delcy Rodríguez. Maduro’s former vice president was installed after US forces seized Maduro and his wife in January. Now, her central challenge is whether she can revive the economy by courting the US and foreign oil companies without losing the Chavista base that brought her movement to power. That is an awkward turn for Rodríguez, once a dyed-in-the-wool socialist whose movement spent years denouncing Washington. That balancing act is already testing the new government. “Rodríguez confronts an unprecedented challenge for a Venezuelan leader: She must satisfy Washington’s demands while maintaining sufficient Chavista coalition support to prevent an internal fracture or a military coup,” wrote the Atlantic Council. “Rodríguez making such an agreement with Trump would alienate the regime’s hardliners, who would view her accommodation as a betrayal. Thus, Rodríguez may be unable to guarantee the stability required for the business operations Trump wants to run in Venezuela.” Those tensions are now openly splitting the movement. Observers say that longtime loyalists are currently openly and loudly disagreeing with the Rodríguez administration and even discussing publicly rumors that an insider betrayed the government and helped the US depose Maduro, the Associated Press wrote: “They are criticizing her overtures to the US and her efforts to attract foreign investment, saying she is betraying the socialist principles and anti-imperialist rhetoric that defined Chavismo for more than two decades.” For Chavistas who supported alliances with China, Russia and Iran as a counterweight to Washington, Rodríguez’s cooperation with the US looks like a sharp break from the movement’s anti-US posture. And her decision to send former officials to the US to face prosecution and approve American military exercises in Venezuela has made that shift even harder for Chavista loyalists to accept. But Rodríguez might be wise not to fight the tides, analysts say. In the wake of the US actions in Venezuela and a spike in energy prices worldwide due to the wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf, oil companies are taking another look at Venezuela’s oil riches. Washington has also eased sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector, allowing major oil companies to resume operations and other firms to negotiate new energy contracts. The move followed changes to Venezuela’s oil law giving foreign producers more autonomy, though dealings with Russian, Iranian or Chinese entities remain barred. Companies could spend billions investing in the country’s infrastructure, a windfall that could turn the Venezuelan economy around. While ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg News that Venezuela still has “a long way to go” before its state-heavy economy can attract major investment, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods has softened his bleak view of Venezuela as a place for investors. “I feel positive about what’s happening, the opportunity there,” he told investors last month, according to Quartz. “(There is) more work to do, but I think we’ll be uniquely positioned and play an important role in bringing those barrels to market.” Energy giants like ExxonMobil are now negotiating with Rodríguez’s government to return, but they are concerned about a revival of anti-corporate policies, such as when Chávez nationalized parts of the Venezuelan oil industry in 2007. The Venezuelan people, meanwhile, are waiting to see what happens. Life is still a struggle for most people who are grappling with inflation rates as high as 618 percent. Many are also wondering about when elections will be held. Regime officials, analysts say, prefer to work on the economy first, believing that if the situation improves, they might have a chance in elections. Still, they fear prosecution by the opposition should it win, making elections an unappealing prospect. Meanwhile, since the Maduro ouster, Rodríguez has ousted some officials and replaced them with technocrats, but most of her administration is still made up of Maduro insiders. She has released about 700 political prisoners. Almost 500, however, remain in jail. Still, the regime is tolerating protests for the first time: Hundreds of demonstrations have been held since January. A recent poll showed that while 58 percent said life had not improved over the past six months, 85 percent expected things to get better within a year. “Clearly, Venezuelans have experienced what today would be called a ‘vibe shift,’” World Politics Review wrote. “But much of the reality on the ground is remarkably unchanged, considering that the US mounted what was essentially a successful regime-decapitation operation.”

Peru's Election Runoff Offers Voters A Bad Choice

Peru’s Election Runoff Offers Voters a Choice Between a Rock and a Hard Place PERU Peru Peru’s June 7 presidential runoff has become a race pitting one candidate under legal threat and another shadowed by an authoritarian family legacy. Voters are deeply wary of both. Left-wing congressman Roberto Sánchez was confirmed for the runoff vote even as prosecutors were already seeking to disqualify him from the race and imprison him for campaign finance irregularities. His opponent, conservative Keiko Fujimori, is making her fourth presidential run on a law-and-order platform while trying to escape the shadow of Fujimorismo, the movement built around the authoritarian rule of her father Alberto Fujimori in the 1990s. The case against Sánchez has increased turmoil in a race already testing Peru’s fragile democracy. But his legal troubles are only part of the problem. Neither candidate came close to winning broad support in the tumultuous first round, when more than 70 percent of voters chose someone else. Peru’s first round was marred by logistical failures, delayed results and allegations of fraud. “Both candidates face strong rejection from parts of the population,” Le Monde wrote. “Sánchez will likely be portrayed, as (former President Pedro) Castillo was, as a ‘communist’ hostile to investors. Fujimori, on the other hand, reassures the business community. But anti-Fujimorism remains even stronger, especially among those who suffered human rights abuses during her father’s presidency.” Fujimori won 17.19 percent of the vote, while Sánchez took 12.03 percent. Because voting is mandatory, both finalists must compete for supporters of defeated candidates and reluctant voters. A recent Ipsos poll found that 26 percent of respondents said they would not vote for either candidate or would cast a blank ballot. Many voters are not just weighing candidates from the left against the right, but two political groupings rooted in fights over who gets to wield power and how far they can go to keep it. “Both candidates (have) a political legacy marked by ‘coup traditions,’” Alberto Vergara, a professor at the University of the Pacific, told Peruvian news outlet Ojo Público. “Everyone is democratic as long as election results do not endanger their position.” Meanwhile, a judge began evaluating on May 27 whether Sánchez must stand trial, but the hearing was continued to June 4. It is unclear whether such a ruling would automatically remove him from the runoff. Sánchez is accused of falsifying information about campaign contributions, diverting them into his personal accounts and making false statements in financial reports tied to party contributions and filings from 2018 to 2021. Prosecutors are asking for a five-year sentence and permanent disqualification from running in any presidential race. He denies wrongdoing. If Sánchez remains in the race, his electoral strength lies in the anti-establishment anger that powered Castillo’s rise. He served as trade minister under Castillo, the leftist president impeached and arrested in 2022 after trying to dissolve Congress and rule by decree. Many Castillo supporters saw his impeachment and the deadly crackdown on the protests that followed as proof that the Peruvian ruling class would not respect poorer and rural Peruvians. Fujimori, meanwhile, can cast Sánchez as a risky choice in a country already exhausted by instability. Supporters see her as a candidate of order in a country frightened by a startling rise in crime. But her party’s clout in Congress is also a liability. Critics say Fujimorismo has used Congress to fuel impeachment fights and weaken checks and balances, helping trap Peru in a cycle of unstable presidencies – Peru is about to elect its ninth president in a decade after years of presidents resigning, being ousted or serving only interim terms. Analysts told El País the runoff is another election driven less by hope than by fear of the alternative. “Unfortunately, the vote has been so divided that we will once again end up with two candidates for whom the vast majority of Peruvians would not vote,” said Julio F. Carrión, a professor at the University of Delaware. Some analysts say there is a chance the election may set Peru on a new path regardless of the turmoil in the election itself. “This election may help end the chronic political instability,” Americas Quarterly wrote. “What is less clear is whether it will improve public policy in a country where this has become the preserve of special interests, some of them illegal.”