Jack's South America

Dinner With A Wonderful Chilean Friend Of 38 Years

2012-02-27T05:57:00.002-08:00

Elena and I had a wonderful dinner with Pablo Gallyas last night at an Italian restaurant (Giovanni's) in Berkeley, California. Pablo finally got to meet my wife Elena. We talked about trekking adventures including climbing high mountains. We talked about our experiences of living through military dictatorships in Latin America. We talked about our children. It was a wonderful evening and great to be with a good friend whom I had not seen in 4 years.

SAA plane skids off Sao Paulo runway | News24

2012-02-27T05:48:00.000-08:00

SAA plane skids off Sao Paulo runway | News24:

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Anna's Graduation Party From ESPM In Sao Paulo

2012-02-26T12:43:00.000-08:00

Mandalay says unrest delays Chile mine shipments

2012-02-25T07:18:00.000-08:00

Mandalay says unrest delays Chile mine shipments:

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Global Wealth - Chart Porn

2012-02-23T04:18:00.000-08:00

Global Wealth - Chart Porn:

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NASA Recharting its Path to Mars | SpaceNews.com

2012-02-22T16:16:00.000-08:00

NASA Recharting its Path to Mars | SpaceNews.com:

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Argentina Train Accident Kills At Least 40, Injures More Than 500

2012-02-22T15:17:00.000-08:00

Argentina Train Accident Kills At Least 40, Injures More Than 500:

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Trágico accidente ferroviario en Once

2012-02-22T12:56:00.000-08:00

The Awful Tragedy At Once Train Station In Buenos Aires

2012-02-22T09:45:00.000-08:00

nside the front two carriages of the train.

At least 40 people were killed and 550 were injured following a train crash at Once station, officials confirmed. A 7-year-old boy was amongst the first reported fatalities as he remained trapped inside one of the front carriages for almost three hours.

The head of the SAME emergency services Alberto Crescenti said that the amount of people injured had increased to "at least 550," while rescue workers confirmed around 30 passangers were still trapped inside and underneath the train.

After the crash at least 70 people were pulled out of the wreckage and taken to nearby Ramos Mejía Hospital and Durand Hospital to be treated.

Sources at the scene said that rescue activities were non-stop and that there were many injured passengers sat in the station hall waiting to be moved to hospital.

Transport Secretary Juan Pablo Schiavi was present at the scene and earlier described the accident as "terrible."

The train crashed when it was moving into the station, as it failed to stop at the lights and collided into the platform. Schiavi told reporters "it was moving at a speed of 26 kilometres per hour when entering the station, however when it crashed, it had slowed down and was travelling at 20 kilometres per hour."

He went on to say “the impact of the crash caused the second carriage to be pushed 6 metres into the first carriage of the train."

Once station, located in the heart Plaza Miserere is one of Buenos Aires' central train stations. The state-run TBA Sarmiento train line runs from Moreno to Once station, and was filled with passengers on their daily commute.

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nona-people: PAUL LIR ALEXANDER

2012-02-20T06:25:00.000-08:00

nona-people: PAUL LIR ALEXANDER:

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How To Spend It - A long weekend in... San Miguel de Allende

2012-02-18T08:58:00.000-08:00

How To Spend It - A long weekend in... San Miguel de Allende:

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Experiean Pulses TO A Latin Beat

2012-02-18T08:13:00.000-08:00

Feature

| SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2012

Experian Pulses to a Latin Beat

By JONATHAN BUCK | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The information-services provider, famous for its credit reports, is tapping new growth opportunities in Brazil and elsewhere in South America. Why it pays to mind everyone's business.

How do you say "credit" in Portuguese and Spanish? Experian would know. The Dublin, Ireland-based company, which provides credit reports and other financial data on consumers and businesses, is growing like gangbusters in Latin America, particularly Brazil. Although the U.S. still accounts for more than half of revenue and profits, Experian's shares are a compelling play on the growth of the consumer class in the developing world.

Experian's American depositary receipts (ticker: EXPGY) have advanced almost steadily from a 2008 low of $4.26 to a recent $15. Some fans think they could rally another 20%, at least, in the next 12 months, as the company cashes in on booming demand for credit information in Latin America, and as growth accelerates in the U.S., along with greater demands for credit transparency. Shares also trade in London ( EXPN.U.K.), where they have risen 20% in the past year, to a recent 936 pence.

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Chris Gloag for Barron's

CEO Don Robert

Experian is best known for generating credit reports, but also gathers data on individuals, companies, vehicles and insurance, slicing and dicing it for clients to help them manage credit risk, target marketing campaigns and prevent fraud. The company is No. 1 in consumer-credit and No. 2 in business-credit services, and competes primarily with Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) and Equifax (EFX). "It is a scale business," says Rodney Wells, an investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London, which holds Experian shares. "Once you have scale, it is pretty hard [for other companies] to enter."

Chairman John Peace co-founded Experian in 1980 as CCN Group, a unit of British retail conglomerate GUS. The business grew in part through acquisitions, including the 1996 purchase of U.S.-based Experian, formerly known as TRW Information Systems and Services. Experian, as it was renamed, was spun off from GUS in 2006, and has put up impressive results in recent years, bolstered by continuing mergers and acquisitions. This year it is looking to make "fill-in and bolt-on" purchases, rather than major deals, says CEO Don Robert, who joined the company in 2001 and became chief executive in 2005.

In fiscal 2011, ended March 31, Experian reported net earnings of $581 million, or 70 cents a share, on revenue of $4.2 billion. Analysts are forecasting earnings per share of 80 cents in the current fiscal year, on a 12% increase in sales, and earnings of 88 cents in fiscal 2013. Experian pays out a third of its earnings in dividends, and yields 1.4%.

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Shares aren't dirt cheap at 18.6 times fiscal 2012 estimates, but bullish analysts see room for the price/earnings ratio to expand to 19.5. "The valuation is still attractive, given the long-term prospects," says Wells, who is looking to increase Aberdeen's position in the stock.

Experian's earnings could get a boost from soaring demand for credit-reference services in Brazil, where the company has a firm foothold and is looking to grow. In 2007 it acquired a 70% stake in Serasa, Brazil's leading credit bureau, and can exercise an option in June to buy the remaining 30%.

The unclaimed stake is worth about $1 billion, which Experian can afford, and the market potential suggests it would be a good investment. But a deal isn't straightforward, as Serasa's minority shareholders are Brazil's two largest banks, which also are Experian's two biggest customers in the country. "I don't think it will be as simple as dropping a letter in the post," says Robert, a 52-year-old American, who nonetheless hopes to secure a friendly agreement.

EXPERIAN'S LATIN AMERICA REVENUE grew by 42% in the December quarter, helped by several acquisitions in 2011 in Colombia and Brazil. Organic revenue growth in the region, minus those deals, was an "eye-popping" 27%, Robert says. Latin America accounted for less than one-fifth of total revenue in fiscal 2011, but its contribution is rising rapidly. Based on the current trajectory, the region will generate a third of revenue within two years, and be a source of outstanding growth for Experian for years to come, mitigating slower growth in more mature markets such as the U.S. and the U.K.

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December-quarter revenue, excluding acquisitions, rose just 2% in North America, depressed by new regulations governing how universities and colleges market their services to students. The pace of growth is expected to accelerate in the fiscal fourth quarter. Quarterly revenue grew 7% in both the U.K. and Ireland, and the rest of the world, defined as Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific.

About 31% of Experian's revenue still comes from the financial-services industry, whose problems are well documented. That proportion might sound high, but is down from about 70% in 2000. Robert is looking to cut the contribution of financial services by another 10 percentage points, while expanding into other industries, including telecommunications, utilities and health care.

MARKET DIVERSIFICATION FOLLOWING a painful restructuring in 2007-08 helped the company weather subsequent downturns without much discomfort. In fact, management's biggest challenge now is to choose the right opportunities to pursue. "We are truly overwhelmed with growth opportunities," says Robert, citing geographic expansion as well as growth initiatives in new industries.

The Bottom Line

Experian has rallied 252%, to $15, from its 2008 low. Shares could climb another 20% or more as earnings rise, propelled by growth in newer regions and industries.

For example, Experian hopes to replicate in Asia the success it is enjoying in Latin America. It has a foothold in China, but Robert has high hopes, in particular, for India, where the company established a joint venture with several local banks a couple of years ago. In time, the Indian market could be as big as the Brazilian market, he says.

David Togut, an analyst at Evercore Partners in New York, thinks Robert has done well so far. Management, he says, "has made, strategically, the right decisions in the past few years," such as the acquisition of Serasa, the development of an e-mail marketing tool called CheetahMail, and the expansion of Experian's interactive business. Togut expects the shares to trade up to $17 in the next 12 months.

If Experian keeps dancing to a Latin beat, they could go higher still.

Where Credit Is Due

CEO Don Robert is looking to make "fill-in" acquisitions. Experian is already No 1 in consumer- and No. 2 in business-credit services.

	Recent	12-Mo	Mkt	2012E	2012E	Div
Company/Ticker	Price	Chg	Val (bil)	EPS	P/E	Yld
Experian/EXPGY*	$14.90	15.9%	$15.0	$0.80	18.6	1.4%
Equifax/EFX	42.56	17.5	5.2	2.82	15.1	1.7
Dun & Bradstreet/DNB	78.52	-7.6	3.8	6.71	11.7	1.9
E=Estimate. *Fiscal year ends March.
Source: Thomson Reuters

E-mail: editors@barrons.com

Brazilian Police Strikes Threaten Rio's Carnival | STRATFOR

2012-02-14T14:16:00.000-08:00

Brazilian Police Strikes Threaten Rio's Carnival | STRATFOR:

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My Grand Daughter Bianca Takes Her First Plane Ride

2012-02-11T23:16:00.000-08:00

Acsa consortium awarded R70bn Brazil airport contract

2012-02-11T18:51:00.000-08:00

Acsa consortium awarded R70bn Brazil airport contract:

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My Brasil Adventure

2012-02-09T04:50:00.000-08:00

\for over two week s I have been in Brasil. I was first in Sao Paulo to attend my daughter Annas college graduation from ESPM. I then flew to Goiania to spend time with my beautiful grand daughter Bianca. Now I ma in Rio de Janeiro tht has been a part of my life for 37 years. Brasil is wonderful!

Elena And I Celebrate 11 Years Together!

2012-01-23T06:32:00.001-08:00

I took Elena to La Costenera last night. This is a charming restaurant right on the Pacific Coast in Moss Beach, California. Monty Heying and his special partner Sandra joined us. We had a wonderful meal. Elena thank you for all of your love and support over the last eleven years. Thank you for making me more humane and civilized. You're a tough lady who can really take "heat" and stress! I love you very much!

A Brazilian Beach Beauty, Refined And Untouched

2012-01-22T14:21:00.000-08:00

NEXT STOP

A Brazilian Beach Beauty, Refined and Untouched

Andre Vieira for The New York Times

Beach at Praia do Rosa. More Photos »

By SHIVANI VORA

Published: January 20, 2012

REPRINTS

FROM the balcony of Quinta do Bucanero, a pousada in the center of Praia do Rosa, the appeal of the Brazilian seaside town is obvious. Perched on top of a cliff, the 10-room hotel is surrounded by a tropical jungle and forested mountains, with views of a long, sweeping stretch of golden sand and two lagoons. Surfers dot the waves, and orchids scent the air.

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On a Brazilian Island, Sophistication With a Barefoot Atmosphere

Map

Praia do Rosa, Brazil

Travel Guide: Brazil

It’s this natural beauty that first attracted Jacqueline Biazus, who owns Bucanero along with her husband, nearly four decades ago, when she was an 18-year-old hippie — and to return 15 years later to build the hotel. “Back then, there was nothing here in Rosa,” she said as she sat at a balcony table overlooking the scenery. “It’s not like it is today.”

Located in the southern state of Santa Catarina, Praia do Rosa is about one hour by car south of Florianópolis, the popular state capital, known for the more than 40 beachesthat have become a mainstay for the international jet set.

Despite its lovely setting, Rosa has been slower to attract travelers or a tourism infrastructure. Even today, it has only two paved streets; the rest are simply dirt tracks. But a stream of new residents who have settled here in recent years to open pousadas, restaurants and bars is turning this formerly undeveloped spot into a chic beachside destination that may begin to draw some of Florianópolis’s regular visitors. For now, it offers delightful natural beauty and a curious combination of sophistication and a barefoot, laid-back atmosphere.

During the antipodal summer, night life usually begins at sunset, when groups of board-carrying surfers head back from the beach, and couples start filling the tables of the elegant boîtes, some of which overlook the ocean and lagoons. As the evening progresses, a smartly dressed, mostly under-40 crowd spills out of the handful of bars around the town’s half-paved main street, sipping mango caipirinhas and glasses of the latest Argentine vintages. Sounds of live reggae and international D.J.’s spinning pop remixes are a constant backdrop.

Praia do Rosa literally means “rosy beach.” The name comes not from the color of its sand but from Dorvino Manoel da Rosa, one of the first fishermen to occupy a house by the beach in the 1970s. Back then, there wasn’t much activity here; the main road leading to the town, BR 101, which connects Rosa with Florianópolis, didn’t yet exist, and access was difficult. Rosa was merely a simple fishing village.

A few years later, groups of Brazilians in their late teens and early 20s discovered the area. Many of them, including Ms. Biazus, came from Porto Alegre, a large coastal city about five and a half hours south. “The beaches down by us were ugly so we headed up north to find better ones and stumbled onto Rosa,” said Ms. Biazus, who first visited in 1978. Why Rosa? There simply weren’t options closer to home that had the same remoteness or such perfect waves for surfing, she said.

Since there were no hotels, she and her friends rented homes from fishermen living by the beach and spent their days taking advantage of the waves. Evenings were spent around bonfires, playing guitar and listening to bossa nova. They were unfazed by the lack of electricity, which locals say didn’t arrive until sometime in the early ’80s.

Today, these same hippies are at the root of the new wave of activity in Rosa. Well-educated entrepreneurs like Ms. Biazus, who trained as a lawyer, have opened restaurants, hotels, bars and boutiques. Others have followed, and in recent years more than three dozen businesses have opened. Judging by the number of buildings under construction, there is more growth to come.

The population is still small — there are about 20,000 people living in Ibiraquera, the area that includes Rosa, compared with 400,000 in Florianópolis — though things are beginning to change.

Hippies singing around campfires on the beach have been mostly replaced by sun-tanning women in bikinis and men in board shorts, like Fernanda Pereira, 29, and her husband, Ricardo, 30. The couple, who live in the Brazilian city of Curitiba, an inland city in the state of Paraná, started vacationing here annually a few years ago and said the increasing number of hot spots, combined with the attractive setting, keeps them coming back. “There is a cosmopolitan vibe to Rosa that didn’t exist before,” said Ms. Pereira, who works in advertising, “but it’s just as unspoiled.”

Beleza Pura, for example, is one of the bars that have perked up the after-dark scene, which now often goes until 3 or 4 a.m. during the high season (December through April; most establishments are usually open only on weekends the rest of the year). Its owner, Luciano Menu-Marque, 35, came to Rosa a few years ago from Buenos Aires for a weekend trip with his surfing friends and ended up staying after seeing that the town had no night spots. Large enough to hold 300 — there is additional space on an outdoor patio — the bar has a cosmic-themed mural on its ceiling and is decked out with pieces Mr. Menu-Marque has collected from his global travels, including autographed soccer jerseys. The bar regularly hosts live bands and D.J.’s from around the world, performing for packed crowds.

Restaurants, drawing from the plentiful seafood coming in from the ocean, are also a draw. The most notable is Lua Marinha, opened in 2001, which serves unfussy but refined seafood dishes using only local ingredients. From a wooden deck that overlooks a lagoon, diners can see fishermen setting out to catch offerings for the next night’s dinner. A recent meal started with an octopus ceviche that got its heat from a sprinkling of finely minced jalapeños, followed by a main dish for two of small and exceptionally sweet shrimp, accompanied by a thick sauce of mixed herbs.

For most of these proprietors, setting up shop in Rosa is less about getting rich and more about soaking up the riches around them. Mr. Menu-Maruque said he used to run watering holes in Ibiza and Buenos Aires — where he earned more than he ever has at Beleza Pura. “There are better places to do business than Rosa so you’re not necessarily going to come here for a financial windfall,” he said. “But no other place in the world is as beautiful.”

Indeed, stunning vistas are available almost anywhere in town, and walks through the surrounding mountains lead to beaches accessible only by foot and completely empty. You might even spot whales breaching, most commonly July through November. During those walks, keep an eye out for colorful flora, including red and yellow bromeliad plants, ruby colored açucena flowers, orchids and jackfruit trees laden with football-size fruit.

As travelers have taken notice, rooms at pousadas are getting harder to come by during the peak season and are also fuller during the off-peak months. Ms. Biazus said that Bucanero is almost completely booked three months in advance starting in December and is now also busy during the typically slower spring; as of a few years ago, her off-season guests were sparse. The Morada da Praia do Rosa is a year-old pousada that’s fully booked on weekends even during the off-season according to its owner, Demian Alaimo, another Buenos Aires transplant.

But while those who come here might think of Rosa as the next must-visit destination on the Brazilian coast, residents aren’t interested in it being the next anything. “Of course we need travelers to come support us, but we don’t want everyone to discover Rosa and for it to have a reputation as a party town,” Ms. Biazus said. “Coming here is really about enjoying the beauty and peacefulness, and with too many people, it’s hard to do that.”

IF YOU GO

WHERE TO STAY

Quinta do Bucanero, (55-48) 3355-6056; bucanero.com.br. Carved into the side of a cliff, this luxurious 10-room pousada has a small spa and beautiful gardens. Rates from 450 reais, or $255 at 1.76 reais to the dollar.

Morada da Praia do Rosa, (55-48) 3355-7342; moradadapraiadorosa.com. Rates from 240 reais.

WHERE TO EAT AND DRINK

Beleza Pura, (55-48) 8829-1253; belezapurabar.com. Cocktails are 10 to 15 real. A meal for two, without drinks, is about 60 reais.

Lua Marinha, (55-48) 3354-0613; luamarinha.com.br. Dinner for two, without drinks, is about 150 reais.

Sapore di Pasta, (55-48) 3355-6100; pousadabougainville.com.br. Dinner for two, with wine, is about 180 reais.

WHAT TO DO

Arrange tailor-made trips to Rosa through the Latin-American travel specialistDehouche, (800) 690-6899; dehouche.com, based in Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires.

A version of this article appeared in print on January 22, 2012, on page TR9 of the New York edition with the headline: A Brazilian Beauty, Refined but Untouched.

Brasil's Ruling Family Of film

2012-01-22T14:09:00.001-08:00

Brazil’s Ruling Family of Film

Chad Batka for The New York Times

Paula Barreto (left), with her parents, Luiz Carlos and Lucy Barreto at their Manhattan apartment.

By LARRY ROHTER

Published: January 18, 2012

REPRINTS

SOMETIMES they limit themselves simply to producing movies, though on many other occasions they have also written, directed or actually filmed them. But by any standard the Barretos — Luiz Carlos and Lucy and their children, Bruno, Fábio and Paula — are the first family of cinema in Brazil.

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A Scene From ‘Lula: Son of Brazil’

Movie Review | 'Lula: Son of Brazil': A Labor Hero’s Route to Leading a Nation (January 13, 2012)

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Alan Arkin (left), star of “Four Days in September,” with the film's director, Bruno Barreto.

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New Yorker Films

Rui Ricardo Diaz in “Lula, Son of Brazil.”

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New Yorker Films

From left, Jose Wilker, Sonia Braga, and Mauro Mendoca in the 1978 hit film, “Dona Flor and Her Two Husbands,” directed by Bruno Barreto.

Since the founding of the family production company, LCBarreto, 50 years ago, the Barretos have, in one capacity or another, helped make more than 80 films, the latest of which,“Lula, Son of Brazil,” opened in the United States this month. Those films — in a variety of styles and genres ranging from romantic comedies like“Bossa Nova” to political dramas like “Memoirs of Prison”— have won prizes at Cannes, been nominated for Academy Awards, jump-started the careers of actors and directors and set box-office records.

In the history of Brazilian cinema, “there is before the Barretos and after,” said the actress Sonia Braga, who first came to international prominence in the mid-1970s in“Dona Flor and Her Two Husbands,” directed by Bruno Barreto and produced by his parents. “They are people who live, breathe and eat cinema, and the result is that they’ve built up a patrimony that continues to endure.”

Born in Brazil’s arid northeast, the family patriarch, Luiz Carlos Barreto, now 83, was raised in the coastal city Fortaleza. He has a boyhood memory of watching Orson Welles filming the never-released “Four Men on a Raft” at a beach there and being “fascinated by all that equipment.” But when he moved to Rio de Janeiro at the age of 17, it was to play soccer semiprofessionally and work as a journalist.

From the late 1940s on he worked for Cruzeiro magazine, similar to Life or Look, first as a reporter and then also as a photographer. He met Lucy, then a music student, while on an assignment, and they married in 1954.

Crucially, Mr. Barreto covered movie stories and got to know directors like Nelson Pereira dos Santos, Glauber Rocha and Carlos Diegues, associated with what by the early 1960s was evolving into the Cinema Novo movement. That eventually led to an invitation to write the screenplay of “Assault on the Pay Train,” a commercial success in 1962 and one of the first films of the gritty, socially engaged Cinema Novo to win attention and awards at international festivals.

“From the beginning the Cinema Novo was a movement that was as much political and ideological as cinematic,” Mr. Barreto, his bushy eyebrows rising and falling, said during an interview this month at the family’s New York apartment on the Upper West Side. “When ‘Assault on the Pay Train,’ which had all those elements, exploded at the box office, that gave us credibility.”

He was then enlisted as the cinematographer on Mr. Pereira dos Santos’s “Barren Lives”and as cinematographer and producer of Mr. Rocha’s “Earth Entranced,” both of which won prizes at the Cannes Film Festival. True to the Cinema Novo’s motto that all that is necessary to make a film is “an idea in the head and a camera in the hand,” both of those influential works, as well as many others that went on to great success in Brazil and abroad, were edited in the small guest house behind the Barretos’ home in Rio.

“Luiz Carlos was 10 or 12 years older than most of the rest of us, which meant he was one of the few to have a home and wife, the normal life of a married man,” Mr. Diegues recalled. “So his house became a home away from home for all of us, a place where we not only worked, but plotted and planned on behalf of Brazilian cinema.”

Attentively observing all this were the Barretos’ children. Bruno, the oldest, born in 1955, has vivid memories of afternoons like one when he was 10 and sitting in the backyard listening to a conversation between the Italian neo-realist director Roberto Rossellini, in Rio for a film festival, and Glauber Rocha and other leading figures of the Cinema Novo.

“It was very exciting, like a seminar on film, to hear them discussing Eisenstein’s films and all of that,” Bruno Barreto said of those days during a telephone interview from Rio. “They were always very encouraging to me and gave me tips. Glauber in particular would always stop and explain things to me, like the dialectic of editing, perhaps because that was a way of explaining things to himself.”

By the mid-1960s Lucy Barreto, now 78, was also getting involved in the production company, which eventually also set up a distribution arm. Directors and actors who have worked with the Barretos describe her as the most pragmatic member of the team, a characterization she embraces.

“For me everything is a question of cost and benefit,” she said emphatically, shaking her head and her flaming red hair. “I’m a details person. If you think a film is going to gross X, then its cost can’t exceed Y. This is a risky business, and you can’t be guessing.”

Both Luiz Carlos and Lucy Barreto have also tried their hand at directing, he with a documentary, “This Is Pelé,” and she with “Grupo Corpo: A Brazilian Family,” about the dance troupe of that name. But both say they prefer producing.

“I don’t have the temperament to be a director,” he said. “I don’t have that obsession, that neurosis you have to have. I don’t want to define the temperament of a director —— ” His daughter, Paula, laughingly broke in to say, “so as not to complicate things with your sons.” But, Mr. Barreto continued, being a director “creates a deformity in people’s souls. You become the inventor of lives, situations. You become an alchemist.”

His shift from cinematographer and screenwriter to producer was more the result of circumstance than design. During his years as a reporter, he had come to know many politicians and bankers — the people who held the key to obtaining the money needed to make films — and so was able to “open doors for the rest of us,” as Mr. Diegues put it.

When the Cinema Novo period ended, its finish hastened by political repression, some of the movement’s leading figures, like Glauber Rocha, had difficulty adapting. But not the Barretos: in the 1970s and 1980s their production company had global hits like “Dona Flor” and Mr. Diegues’s “Bye Bye Brazil,” and in the 1990s they twice won Oscar nominations for best foreign-language film, for Fábio Barreto’s “O Quatrilho” and Bruno Barreto’s “Four Days in September” (1997).

“The boys are both very fine directors, and sweethearts to work with, but they are very different in their approach,” Ms. Braga, who has filmed with both brothers, said of them. “Fábio is more intuitive, while Bruno is more cerebral in his approach to cinema. He has an incredible technical knowledge, and even when he was 20, when we were making ‘Dona Flor,’ he had the bearing of a person who was older.”

For “Lula,” a biopic about Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president of Brazil, Fábio Barreto took pains to give the actress Glória Pires a more intense scene with her real-life daughter. Ms. Pires, who plays Lula’s mother, recalled that she was scheduled to be in scenes with her daughter Cléo, a rising star who plays Lula’s first wife, but they had no dialogue — until Fábio Barreto revised the script.

“He gave that scene to me as a gift, created it so we could be together, and I was touched by that,” Glória Pires said. “As the director he has so many details to attend to, so many things to keep in mind. So only somebody with a big heart would have paid such close attention and thought of a detail like that.”

But in December 2009, less than a month before “Lula” had its premiere in Brazil, Fábio Barreto, who is two years younger than his brother, was in a serious car accident that left him in a coma. Though he now responds to some external stimuli, after installation of a brain pacemaker in May 2011, he remains incapacitated. “I’m religious, so I have a lot of hope and faith,” his mother said. “I think that if he survived the trauma, which was so severe, it was so that he can return to us.”

Though Luiz Carlos and Lucy have been giving more authority to Paula in recent years, both remain active. He wants to move the company into animated films and has been seeking partners for one that would take place in the Amazon; Lucy and Paula are at work on a film about the American poet Elizabeth Bishop’s 16-year sojourn in Brazil, with Bruno Barreto as the director.

Ms. Pires has already signed on to play the aristocratic landscape architect Carlota de Macedo Soares, Bishop’s lover, in the film, which is scheduled to begin shooting in May. This will be Ms. Pires’s fifth movie with the Barretos, so by now she knows what to expect.

“They speak frankly to each other, without subterfuge,” she said. “There’s always a clarity that I think ends up improving the film, which is, after all, their common point of interest. When there are divergences, they seek a consensus. But they never stop being a family, so at times it’s mother talking to sons, husband talking to wife. That aspect is always there, and in the end, you get caught up in their passion.”

A version of this article appeared in print on January 22, 2012, on page AR10 of the New York edition with the headline: Brazil’s Ruling Family of

Report From Chile

2012-01-21T16:08:00.001-08:00

Report from Chile

By Guest Author - January 20th, 2012, 9:30PM

Report from Chile
David R. Kotok
January 18, 2012
~~~
There are no shortcuts to reach the Alto Puelo Lodge on the Rio Puelo in Chile. You can travel from the Argentine side through Buenos Aires and Bariloche or from the Chilean side through Santiago and Puerto Montt. Either way, the journey is long, but well worth it.
Due to the volcanic activity in Chile interfering with Argentine air travel, this trip was routed from the Chilean side. That translated into four different flights: from Philadelphia to Miami, Miami to Santiago, Santiago to Puerto Montt, and the last leg, a charter flight across the Andes Mountains from Puerto Montt to Segundo Corral, a small village with an air strip located near the lodge.
This is my fifteenth visit to the Patagonian region. Arriving at the Rio Puelo, I drink in the marvelous scenery and wonder at the natural beauty that has come to be so near and dear to my heart.
Pristine water and majestic mountains frame the Alto Puelo Lodge, which at maximum capacity accommodates eight guests. The only lodge in the area, it is a family-owned and -operated business. You can find additional information via the following links: www.patagonia-flyfishinglodge.com; e-mail ericschoenauer@gmail.com.
With the sun shining brightly over the clear water, we decided to take a boat out and trek to the head of the lake. There we encountered a large cloud of midges swarming and performing their summer ritual. Beautiful, hungry rainbow trout were standing on their tails, gulping the midges in midair. What a sight to behold.
In order to fish a midge hatch, you must pick a fly so small it is nearly impossible to see when it is on the water. Because these are wild Patagonian trout, you need a long leader and you need to cast at a fair distance, approximately 50 to 60 feet. The entire fly is 1/8”-1/4” long, including the eye, the shank of the hook, and the hook itself. In order to get through the eye, you need a very fine leader. In this case, I used a 7x tippet. It is extremely thin and hard to see with these old eyes, let alone to tie a strong enough knot.
After several casts, we were able to land the midge imitation in the midst of the cloud. A friendly rainbow trout, gulping his way through a feast of a thousand insects, happened to bite on the midge. With a small tug to set the hook, the fun begins. The water here is deep and clear, and with a fish like this one has to be extremely careful to not “horse” the fish in. When the fish wants to run, you must concede. With the very thin leader, any pressure can break it off. After twenty minutes of many runs and much activity, we were able to get the rainbow trout into the net, take the fly out of his lip, thank him for the exercise, and release him back into the water. These experiences on the Rio Puelo entirely vindicate my 36-hour journey.
The real powerhouse on the Rio Puelo is the brown trout. These large demons of the deep turquoise waters are the trophy fish sought by all fly fishermen.
I asked Eric, our guide and owner of the Alto Puelo Lodge, which fly to use. We discussed flies at length. For some reason, as I looked around on this warm, sunny, clear day, I suggested, “If I were in the west, I would use a grasshopper. Eric, have you seen any grasshoppers?” Eric replied, “Yes! Actually, that is a good idea! I had not thought about that.”
We tied on a hopper, our backs against some rock ledges on Lago Puelo, the headwaters of the Rio Puelo. On the third cast, a trout came to take a look. He did not like what he saw. Fifty yards down, against another rocky ledge, a second trout came and took it fast. Unfortunately, this old fly fisherman missed the hook set.
The next rock ledge had a notch in the water line. It was a dark, covered area underneath the ledge overhang. These wild fish are very alert to anything not consistent to their habitat. It was a perfect place for a wily, large brown to wait for its next meal. Three false casts and then I was able to flip the grasshopper right into the dark shadow in the notch between the rocks. It landed in the cleft that had taken four million years to form, and within seconds a brown took that fly and gulped it down. A fast hook set, and off he went. The first run out towards the deep part of the lake took me to the backing on the line. A monster, he was hungry and strong from swimming in currents, and ready for battle. The results are in the photo here: http://www.cumber.com/content/special/fish.jpg. After a wonderful, invigorating fight, this fish is released to swim again in Lago Puelo — until my next visit.
This remote Chilean valley is a fly fisherman’s dream. There is such diversity of fishing here, from calm to windy lakes, to streams and deep rivers with flies rising and hatches. In the midst of this unspoiled landscape sits the Alto Puelo Lodge, a wonderful, welcoming retreat where one can delve into a book or research paper.
Let’s turn to the economics in Chile. Chile is a booming place, a South American success story. Evidence of their success can be seen in their economic growth and lower unemployment rate. When you look at Chile, no matter how you examine the data for flaws, you find a continually improving account.
The Chilean central bank has expressed concern over external events, which is why interest rates were surprisingly reduced during its last meeting. It even explained that its concern originates from the crises in Europe, not from a domestic, anti-inflation central bank policy.
We like Chile; we like it as a destination, we like it as an investment, and we like it even more with each return visit. I have asked my colleague Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist, to summarize our investment position. In our Emerging Markets Model, the overall weight is 4.65%, which is much higher than the 1.52% weight in the Emerging Markets benchmark. In the International model the weight is 2.025%, and in Global MAC it is 2.0%. These compare with the 0.5% weight of Chile in the Vanguard world ex-US ETF. It is important to note that Chile is not included in the EAFE benchmark index. Chile’s stock market underperformed in 2011, -20% compared with -18.2% for EEM. As of January 12, 2012, Chile is up 3.9% compared with 4.2% for EEM.
~~~
David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

PERMALINK
Category: Think Tank.

[OTE141] On the Edge with Gonzalo Lira - Max Keiser

2012-01-21T12:31:00.000-08:00

[OTE141] On the Edge with Gonzalo Lira - Max Keiser:

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Brazil’s overtime pay law risks higher labour costs - FT.com

2012-01-21T01:39:00.000-08:00

Brazil’s overtime pay law risks higher labour costs - FT.com:

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Argentina And Brasil Are Major Food Exporters

2012-01-20T10:41:00.001-08:00

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Update on Global Food Commodities

January 20, 2012

Summary

Corn, soybeans, rice and wheat are the most important food staples consumed in the world. We monitor these commodities because market fluctuations can lead to domestic unrest in import-reliant countries. Below is an assessment of these vital commodities.

Analysis

Most countries have domestic agricultural industries. However, the majority of these countries do not produce more than what their populations can consume. Only a handful of countries are able to export significant quantities of key food staples to countries that cannot meet their consumption needs or experience temporary setbacks in their agricultural sectors.

Output from exporting countries is an important geopolitical issue. Increased demand for global food supplies can cause localized shortages and price spikes. Food shortages and price increases, in turn, can lead to political turmoil and social unrest in countries whose populations depend on these imports for survival.

The most important staple crops consumed by populations around the world are corn, rice and wheat. Soybeans have also become an important alternative source of protein, particularly in Asian diets. Corn and soybean exports are largely dominated by states in the Western Hemisphere, while global wheat supplies are primarily grown by states in the Northern Hemisphere. Asian states account for the majority of all globally traded rice, but China, the world's largest producer of rice, consumes almost all of the rice it produces.

The following breaks down the current status of each of the four major staple crops.Production forecasts are drawn primarily from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agriculture Service estimates.

Corn

The United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine account for more than 80 percent of global corn exports. While some 90 countries rank among the world's corn importers, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Egypt are the most import-dependent nations, purchasing more than 40 percent of all globally traded corn.

The status of the corn market depends on weather conditions in the four major exporting countries. For the United States and Ukraine, the fall corn harvest has already occurred. While U.S. production fell by only 1 percent, the country's total exports are expected to shrink by 10 percent. Ukraine, however, nearly doubled production and more than doubled exports as a result of a record-breaking harvest.

For Brazil and northern Argentina, the period from December to February is key. It is during these summer months that corn goes through its silking and filling stages. A severe drought is currently affecting the region, and the extent to which the corn crop will be affected is not yet clear. Estimates of Argentina's production have fallen by 10 percent, but the country is still projected to produce more corn this season than in each of the previous two seasons. (The most recent drought in Argentina occurred in the 2008-2009 season, during which corn production fell by about 30 percent.) Although the ongoing drought also affects Brazil, Brazilian corn output is expected to increase by several percentage points compared to 2011.

Assuming current expectations hold, Argentine and Brazilian production will reach a combined output of 87 million metric tons. Since global corn production is expected to rise by several percentage points in the 2011-2012 season, Brazil and Argentina would have to lose nearly 50 percent of their expected corn crop for global production to fall below the 2010-2011 seasonal output.

Soybeans

The popularity of soybeans is growing. While less soy is produced than the other three food staples, soybean production has increased by nearly 150 percent in the past two decades, nearly twice the rate of corn production. The United States is a major producer and exporter of soybeans, but the fastest growth has occurred in Brazil. Indeed, there is growing domestic and foreign investment into the South American soybean industry, particularly in the Mercosur countries -- Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina.

The rising popularity of soy can be attributed to its being a relatively cheap source of protein for humans and livestock. Most soybeans are consumed in Asia's rapidly growing markets. China consumes more soy than any other nation. It imports more than 60 percent of globally traded soy, which represents more than 80 percent of China's total annual supply. To mitigate the risk posed by a sudden disruption in the soy trade, China stockpiles its soybeans for later consumption.

The drought that is affecting corn production in Brazil and Argentina is also expected to affect soybean production as the season progresses. Projected output for Argentina this season has dropped by nearly 3 percent, but the country still expects a slight increase in production compared to the previous season. Brazil will not be as lucky. The above-average rainfall seen in soybean-producing center-west states, such as Mato Grosso, will not further compensate for the drought in Parana state. As such, soybean production in Brazil will decrease by 2 percent. This will contribute to a 3 percent decline of global soybean production. Despite this decline, Brazil is expected to become the world's largest exporter of soybeans in the 2011-2012 season following an 8 percent dip in U.S. production.

Rice

The two largest rice producers by far are India and China. The two countries collectively produce more than half of the world's rice. Much of this rice is consumed domestically, however, and only India is a significant net exporter. Controlling nearly 80 percent of global rice exports, the top exporters of rice in order of rank are Thailand, Vietnam, India, Pakistan and the United States.

The rice market is temperamental, easily thrown off by too little or too much rainfall. The majority of rice produced in the world is consumed in the country of production; only about 7 percent of the world's rice production is available on global markets. Comparatively, 11 percent of corn produced is available on global markets, 20 percent of wheat and 37 percent of soy. This makes rice the most easily destabilized of the four key staples.

The 2011-2012 season has been more stable than the previous year, despite the flooding in Southeast Asia and the drought in China during 2011, and global production rose by just over 2 percent. With a 30 percent uptick in production over the previous year and an expected 17 percent increase in exports, Pakistan was the only top-five net exporter to have a noteworthy season.

Wheat

Wheat is widely produced by countries all over the world. However, more than 90 percent of the export market is dominated by ten entities: the United States, Australia, Russia, Canada, the European Union, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Turkey and Uruguay. China is by far the largest producer of wheat, accounting for about 17 percent of global production (only the states of the European Union collectively produce more). However, China is not a major player in the global market because it consumes almost all it produces. Because most wheat is grown in the Northern Hemisphere, July and August are critical for adequate rainfall.

The current season's total wheat production is estimated to be up 6 percent from the previous season. The only major decline was in the United States, which saw a 10 percent drop from the previous season. Both Kazakhstan and Russia have had stellar years for wheat. Russian production increased from the previous year by more than 30 percent. Kazakhstan had its highest production in 30 years, representing a 132 percent increase over the 2010-2011 season and an expected export increase of more than 50 percent.

CIA's "Facebook" Program Dramatically Cut Agency's Costs

2012-01-20T07:56:00.000-08:00

Woman In Brasil Raped On Live Television

2012-01-19T05:51:00.001-08:00

Big Brother woman ‘raped on live TV'

January 18 2012 at 07:37am

Police investigation: Both Daniel Echaniz, left, and Monique Amin, right, have been removed from the Big Brother house in Brazil while police investigates claims that Monique was raped after a house party.

A contestant on Brazil’s version of Big Brother is thought to have been raped live on television.

Early Sunday, after a party that was scripted as part of the show, contestant Daniel Echaniz, 31, is alleged to have had sex with Monique Amin, 23, as cameras rolled.

Network officials told local media that authorities were investigating, because Amin apparently was asleep.

Both have denied that to police, they said on Tuesday.

"Both of them did confirm they had consumed alcoholic drinks and that they were aware of their surroundings, and they confirmed touching each other under a comforter," said policeman Antonio Nunes.

Police took the contestants' underwear and sheets from the show set, and the host voted Echaniz off for "inappropriate behaviour”.

The party was televised on Brazil's Globo TV, and showed Echaniz, a model, and Amin, a student, kissing and caressing each other, and another image shows Echaniz under the sheets presumably having sex with Amin who appears not to move.

Amin has said she did not recall a sexual act taking place, local media reported.

The next morning she was asked about the incident in the diary room, and appeared to know little of what had happened.

Police officers later interviewed her for three hours before taking her away for a rape examination.

Makers Endemol have refused to comment. - Daily Mail, AFP

The Washington Monthly - The Magazine - Fighting the Last War

2012-01-16T09:33:00.000-08:00

The Washington Monthly - The Magazine - Fighting the Last War:

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Lori Berenson returns to U.S. from Peru for holiday visit - latimes.com

2012-01-15T10:27:00.000-08:00

Lori Berenson returns to U.S. from Peru for holiday visit - latimes.com:

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Lori Berenson back in Peru on parole after trip home to US | GlobalPost

2012-01-15T10:20:00.000-08:00

Lori Berenson back in Peru on parole after trip home to US | GlobalPost:

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The Amazon's Lost World

2012-01-15T09:46:00.000-08:00

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Once Hidden by Forest, Carvings in Land Attest to Amazon’s Lost World

By SIMON ROMERO

Published: January 14, 2012

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RIO BRANCO, Brazil — Edmar Araújo still remembers the awe.

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Douglas Engle for The New York Times

Geoglyphs, geometric designs carved into the earth, have become increasingly visible with the deforestation of the Amazon.

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Douglas Engle for The New York Times

Pre-Columbian artifacts, found near some of the geoglyphs in Acre State, offer clues to their origin.

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Douglas Engle for The New York Times

For Edmar Araújo, the designs on his land remain a mystery.

As he cleared trees on his family’s land decades ago near Rio Branco, an outpost in the far western reaches of the Brazilian Amazon, a series of deep earthen avenues carved into the soil came into focus.

“These lines were too perfect not to have been made by man,” said Mr. Araújo, a 62-year-old cattleman. “The only explanation I had was that they must have been trenches for the war against the Bolivians.”

But these were no foxholes, at least not for any conflict waged here at the dawn of the 20th century. According to stunning archaeological discoveries here in recent years, the earthworks on Mr. Araújo’s land and hundreds like them nearby are much, much older — potentially upending the conventional understanding of the world’s largest tropical rain forest.

The deforestation that has stripped the Amazon since the 1970s has also exposed a long-hidden secret lurking underneath thick rain forest: flawlessly designed geometric shapes spanning hundreds of yards in diameter.

Alceu Ranzi, a Brazilian scholar who helped discover the squares, octagons, circles, rectangles and ovals that make up the land carvings, said these geoglyphs found on deforested land were as significant as the famous Nazca lines, the enigmatic animal symbols visible from the air in southern Peru.

“What impressed me the most about these geoglyphs was their geometric precision, and how they emerged from forest we had all been taught was untouched except by a few nomadic tribes,” said Mr. Ranzi, a paleontologist who first saw the geoglyphs in the 1970s and, years later, surveyed them by plane.

For some scholars of human history in Amazonia, the geoglyphs in the Brazilian state of Acre and other archaeological sites suggest that the forests of the western Amazon, previously considered uninhabitable for sophisticated societies partly because of the quality of their soils, may not have been as “Edenic” as some environmentalists contend.

Instead of being pristine forests, barely inhabited by people, parts of the Amazon may have been home for centuries to large populations numbering well into the thousands and living in dozens of towns connected by road networks, explains the American writer Charles C. Mann. In fact, according to Mr. Mann, the British explorer Percy Fawcett vanished on his 1925 quest to find the lost “City of Z” in the Xingu, one area with such urban settlements.

In addition to parts of the Amazon being “much more thickly populated than previously thought,” Mr. Mann, the author of “1491,” a groundbreaking book about the Americas before the arrival of Columbus, said, “these people purposefully modified their environment in long-lasting ways.”

As a result of long stretches of such human habitation, South America’s colossal forests may have been a lot smaller at times, with big areas resembling relatively empty savannas.

Such revelations do not fit comfortably into today’s politically charged debate over razing parts of the forests, with some environmentalists opposed to allowing any large-scale agriculture, like cattle ranching and soybean cultivation, to advance further into Amazonia.

Scientists here say they, too, oppose wholesale burning of the forests, even if research suggests that the Amazon supported intensive agriculture in the past. Indeed, they say other swaths of the tropics, notably in Africa, could potentially benefit from strategies once used in the Amazon to overcome soil constraints.

“If one wants to recreate pre-Columbian Amazonia, most of the forest needs to be removed, with many people and a managed, highly productive landscape replacing it,” said William Woods, a geographer at the University of Kansas who is part of a team studying the Acre geoglyphs.

“I know that this will not sit well with ardent environmentalists,” Mr. Woods said, “but what else can one say?”

While researchers piece together the Amazon’s ecological history, mystery still shrouds the origins of the geoglyphs and the people who made them. So far, 290 such earthworks have been found in Acre, along with about 70 others in Bolivia and 30 in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Rondônia.

Researchers first viewed the geoglyphs in the 1970s, after Brazil’s military dictatorship encouraged settlers to move to Acre and other parts of the Amazon, using the nationalist slogan “occupy to avoid surrendering” to justify the settlement that resulted in deforestation.

But little scientific attention was paid to the discovery until Mr. Ranzi, the Brazilian scientist, began his surveys in the late 1990s, and Brazilian, Finnish and American researchers began finding more geoglyphs by using high-resolution satellite imagery and small planes to fly over the Amazon.

Denise Schaan, an archaeologist at the Federal University of Pará in Brazil who now leads research on the geoglyphs, said radiocarbon testing indicated that they were built 1,000 to 2,000 years ago, and might have been rebuilt several times during that period.

Initially, Ms. Schaan said, researchers, pondering the 20-foot depth of some of the trenches, thought they were used to defend against attacks. But a lack of signs of human settlement within and around the earthworks, like vestiges of housing and trash piles, as well as soil modification for farming, discounted that theory.

Researchers now believe that the geoglyphs may have held ceremonial importance, similar, perhaps, to the medieval cathedrals in Europe. This spiritual role, said William Balée, an anthropologist at Tulane University, could have been one that involved “geometry and gigantism.”

Still, the geoglyphs, located at a crossroads between Andean and Amazonian cultures, remain an enigma.

They are far from pre-Columbian settlements discovered elsewhere in the Amazon. Big gaps also remain in what is known about indigenous people in this part of the Amazon, after thousands were enslaved, killed or forced from their lands during the rubber boom that began in the late 19th century.

For Brazil’s scientists and researchers, Ms. Schaan said, the earthworks are “one of the most important discoveries of our time.” But the repopulation of this part of the Amazon threatens the survival of the geoglyphs, after being hidden for centuries.

Forests still cover most of Acre, but in cleared areas where the geoglyphs are found, dirt roads already cut through some of the earthworks. People live in wooden shacks inside others. Electricity poles dot the geoglyphs. Some ranchers use their trenches as watering holes for cattle.

“It’s a disgrace that our patrimony is treated this way,” said Tiago Juruá, the author of a new book here about protecting archaeological sites including the earthworks.

Mr. Juruá, a biologist, and other researchers say the geoglyphs found so far are probably just a sampling of what Acre’s forests still guard under their canopies. After all, they contend that outside of modern cities, fewer people live today in the Amazon than did before the arrival of Europeans five centuries ago.

“This is a new frontier for exploration and science,” Mr. Juruá said. “The challenge now is to make more discoveries in forests that are still standing, with the hope that they won’t soon be destroyed.”

Lis Horta Moriconi contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro.

A version of this article appeared in print on January 15, 2012, on page A6 of the New York edition with the headline: Once Hidden by Forest, Carvings in Land Attest To Amazon’s Lost World.

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Our Dog Copernicus Has His 10-Year Birthday Luncheon

2012-01-15T07:29:00.001-08:00

Copernicus Has His 10-Year Birthday Luncheon At The Distillery In Moss Beach, California

Sun 15 Jan 2012, 17:21 0 comment(s) Email article
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Yesterday was a magical and a beautiful winter day. We put the dogs in my car and drove to Moss Beach, California. this is a beautiful little community right on the Pacific Ocean. We decided that the dogs needed a walk before going to their birthday luncheon. We found a beautiful trail with some magical views. While Copernicus was off leash, he met a German Shepherd. Things were friendly at first. Then the two dogs got into a fight. We had to put Copernicus back on leash.

We took the dogs to the Distillery Restaurant. It was opened some 80 years ago. During the Great Depression it was a place where people could get illegal alcohol. It was also a hang out for gangsters. It's now a very nice restaurant. It's also dog friendly with a lower-level patio devoted just to dogs and their human companions.

We had to sit on plastic chairs and endure some rough conditions. I had to go up and order the food and drinks and bring much of it down. Despite these hardships, it was a beautiful afternoon with incredible views. The patio was full of other dog lovers. I had fish and chips and Elena had steak. we shared a Cesar salad. The dogs had a small portion of the same steak that Elena had. Our dog Copernicus ate his part of the steak and then ate the remainder of the Cesar salad. Our dog Cassiopeia at her part of the steak and the the rest of the fruit on Elena's plate. We both got color in our skin due to the sun. We met some interesting people including a lady from Colombia.

We put the dogs back in the car and then went inside to wach the New Orleans Saints play the San Francisco 49'ers. It was the best football game that I had seen in several decades. I warned Elena that the 49'ers do their best work in the last couple of minutes of a football game. They were true to form and made a touch down with 9 seconds left to win 36-32, We watched a glorious sunset.

This was amagical celebration of ten years of life for Copernicus. It was a celebration of his love and devotion to us for a decade. It was a magical day with magical memories that we will treasure always.The people at the Distillery Restaurant were wonderful hosts.

Copernicus And Cassiopeia At The Birthday Luncheon

2012-01-15T06:35:00.000-08:00

Iran's Limitations In South America

2012-01-13T09:50:00.001-08:00

Iran's Limitations in Latin America

January 13, 2012

ALEJANDRO ERNESTO/AFP/Getty Images
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) and Cuban President Gen. Raul Castro in Havana on Jan. 11

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Video: Agenda with George Friedman and Nate Hughes on Iran

Summary

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ended a weeklong tour of Latin America on Jan. 12. Tensions between the United States and Iran in Latin America surrounded the visit. While Iran's influence in the region poses some risks to the United States, those risks are limited by the lack of resources among Iran's Latin American partners and the fear of U.S. retribution. The main contest between Washington and Tehran will remain in the Middle East.

Analysis

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad left Ecuador on Jan. 12 after a weeklong tour of Latin America, during which he also visited Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. This was Ahmadinejad's fifth visit to the region, and it came amid elevated tensions between the United States and Iran in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Although Ahmadinejad signed many cooperation agreements during his Latin American trip, the visits were largely geared toward garnering international attention.

The ongoing covert war between the United States and Iran generally plays out in the Middle East. However, much like Russia, Iran sees utility in cultivating close relationships in Latin America to maintain involvement in a traditional U.S. sphere of influence. Iran has close diplomatic ties with many of the countries on the left end of Latin America's political spectrum, primarily because these countries' relations with the United States are strained. Washington's objections to Iran's influence in Latin America have grown in recent years, peaking with the October 2011 allegations that an Iranian agent intended to solicit a Mexican cartel to help assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington and more recent allegations that led the United States to expel a Venezuelan consul general. Despite these incidents and heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, the United States has done little to keep Iran from cultivating relationships in the region. Though Iran's involvement in the region poses some risks to the United States, those risks are limited.

Washington's response to Ahmadinejad's Latin America tour was muted, but the decision to expel Venezuelan Consul General in Miami Livia Acosta just days before the Iranian president arrived in Caracas highlighted the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and its Latin American partners. Acosta was declared persona non grata Jan. 9 based on accusations that she participated in a Cuban-Iranian plot that began in 2006 and was intended to conduct a cyberattack against key U.S. computer systems, including the White House, the National Security Administration, the CIA and nuclear power plants throughout the country.

These allegations surfaced in the documentary "The Iranian Threat," which aired in early December 2011 on Mexican TV network Univision. The documentary showed video from meetings between Iranian, Cuban and Venezuelan diplomats attempting to hire Mexican information technology professors to conduct the attack. In the documentary, Acosta is said to have passed information related to the conspiracy to individuals close to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The conspiracy was covertly recorded by a Mexican IT professor, who turned the evidence over to Mexican and U.S. authorities. Given the length of time the United States has known about Acosta's alleged participation in the conspiracy, the publication of the documentary likely pushed U.S. authorities to take action against her (and Ahmadinejad's visit provided a timely opportunity).

Reports from the U.S. and Latin American media have accused Iran of acquiring significant amounts of uranium from Venezuela and sending Hezbollah agents to Latin America for training. Iran does use its relationship with Venezuela and other Latin American partners to establish financial ties and set up shell companies designed to evade sanctions. It is less clear, however, whether there is any basis to the rumors about uranium supplies and Hezbollah training -- and, if the rumors are true, how significant a threat they might pose to the United States. The rumors certainly contain elements of truth -- Venezuela is thought to have uranium deposits, though whether they are being exploited is unclear. However, while Hezbollah has a presence in the region associated with its drug smuggling and financial activities, there is no indication that its activities pose a critical threat to the United States.

Whatever Iran's intentions in Latin America might be, the role the region can play in supporting Tehran is inherently limited. It is difficult to estimate trade levels, as Iran frequently uses shell companies, but official trade between Latin America and Iran is negligible. More to the point, the Latin American countries with which Iran has relationships have limited resources to offer Iran. Even though Venezuela admitted to sending two separate shipments of gasoline to Iran in 2010, it costs a great deal to send refined products to Iran, and the dilapidated state of Venezuela's refining sector has rendered the country barely able to keep up with its domestic gasoline demand. Neither Mexico nor Brazil -- the region's two countries with the largest industrial capacities -- is interested in a particularly close relationship with Iran, in part because such ties would endanger critical relationships with the United States and Europe.

The threat of U.S. retaliation is the biggest constraint on Iran's relationships with Latin America. The close relationships the Soviet Union had in Latin America during the Cold War -- particularly with Cuba -- were based on the credible promise of significant military and economic support from Moscow. Iran has no such assurances to offer any Latin American states, which means there is little incentive for countries in the region to risk seriously breaching relations with the United States. Even Venezuela, whose relations with the United States are heated, still depends on oil exports to the United States. Any serious deterioration of relations between Caracas and Washington could lead to oil sanctions that would affect the export revenues crucial to Venezuela.

While Iran's involvement in the region poses some inherent risks to the United States, there are also significant limiting factors to those risks. The foundation of U.S. influence in Latin America rests solidly on the status of the United States as the primary trading partner for most Latin American countries and the largest military in the region. Without a significant outside guarantor of financial and military support, Latin American states will only go so far to facilitate anti-U.S. activities in the region. High-profile Iranian visits to Latin America remain a sideshow to the very real competition between Washington and Tehran in the Middle East.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ended a weeklong tour of Latin America on Jan. 12. Tensions between the United States and Iran in Latin America surrounded the visit. While Iran's influence in the region poses some risks to the United States, those risks are limited by the lack of resources among Iran's Latin American partners and the fear of U.S. retribution. The main contest between Washington and Tehran will remain in the Middle East.

Comments? Send them to feedback@stratfor.com

Agenda with George Friedman and Nate Hughes on Iran - YouTube

2012-01-13T09:37:00.000-08:00

Agenda with George Friedman and Nate Hughes on Iran - YouTube:

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Peru - Suspect in Holloway Case Pleads Guilty in Lima Murder - NYTimes.com

2012-01-13T03:42:00.000-08:00

Peru - Suspect in Holloway Case Pleads Guilty in Lima Murder - NYTimes.com:

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SA, Cuba cement defence ties

2012-01-12T07:07:00.000-08:00

SA, Cuba cement defence ties:

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Drug Gangs Strike Back In Rio's "Pacified Slums"

2011-12-28T12:02:00.001-08:00

December 28, 2011 4:32 pm

Drug gangs strike back in Rio’s ‘pacified’ slums

By Joe Leahy and Samantha Pearson in Rocinha, Rio de Janeiro

Members of the special police unit Bope during a raid on a favela in Rio de Janeiro

The staff at Ricardo Eletro were pulling down the shutters on their electronics store after a frantic day serving pre-Christmas shoppers when the gunmen appeared.

Thiago Marinho, manager of the store, which is on the main road of Rocinha, one of Rio de Janeiro’s most notorious favelas, or slums, stood by helplessly as the five bandits stole money, mobile phones and other electrical goods.

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This kind of attack was not meant to happen any more. Paramilitary police invaded Rocinha in November, driving out the armed drug traffickers who had controlled the area for decades. “They weren’t even wearing hoods,” says Mr Marinho of his assailants. “Rocinha is huge. There just aren’t enough police now to look after the place. Two other little shops were robbed, too.”

A sprawl of shacks on a mountain overlooking Rio’s posh Ipanema and Leblon beach districts, Rocinha is the latest favela to come under the city’s “police pacification unit”, or UPP, programme. Aimed at recovering the large areas of Rio controlled by drug gangs with names such as Amigos dos Amigos (Friends of Friends) orComando Vermelho (Red Command), the scheme is seen as crucial to Rio’s plan to host the football World Cup final in 2014 and the Olympics two years later.

Thanks partly to the UPP programme, murders have fallen from 35 per 100,000 inhabitants in metropolitan Rio in 2008 to an estimated 26.7 last year – close to the national average, according to the Sangari Institute, which tracks homicides in Brazil.

“This is a policy that society itself has adopted,” Rio’s state governor Sérgio Cabral recently told Brazil’s O Globo news network. “Once society has adopted a policy, no politician can roll it back.”

But even Mr Cabral knows that rooting out Rio’s entrenched “narco-dictatorships” is a gargantuan task.

The problem dates from the 1970s, when Brazil’s former military rulers jailed common criminals and leftwing guerrillas alongside each other. On their release, the criminals adopted guerrilla-style tactics and began occupying territory. “The idea was to have this red wave to take over the city and set up an alternative state – but then cocaine came into the picture,” says Pedro Henrique de Cristo, consultant to the UN-Habitat programme aimed at reintegrating Rio’s favelas.

According to a study by Mr Henrique de Cristo, 16.6 per cent of Rio’s population, or more than 1m people, live under the drug warlords outside the control of the government. Their average income is about one-third of that of regular neighbourhoods, murder rates are nearly twice as high and teenage pregnancies are five times higher.

“When you are a teenager, between 12 and 15 years old, you have two choices here – continue your education or join the traficantes [traffickers],” says Leandro Lima, a local journalist and native of Rocinha. “Soldiers” in the drug gangs can earn $1,000 a week, a small fortune compared to what most youths earn, he says.

There is also a racial divide. More than half of the population of the favelas is black, compared with less than 7 per cent elsewhere. Activists allege favela residents receive worse treatment from the Rio police, who killed one person for every 23 they arrested in 2008 – compared with one for every 37,000 in the US, according to Human Rights Watch.

Conditions improve markedly after the favelas are pacified. The scheme first caught global attention a year ago when Rio’s elite paramilitary force, the Police Special Operations Battalion, or Bope, was filmed driving gangsters from Rio’s giant Complexo do Alemao favela.

While local populations still distrust the police, Mr Henrique de Cristo says they support the presence of the UPPs – police posts set up in pacified slums and occupied by officers trained in community policing after Bope has pulled out.

The challenge is how to expand and sustain the UPP scheme. Bope says it has pacified only 19 out of 130 gang-controlled favelas and is aiming to get to 40 by 2014. But some question whether Rio has the resources: by some estimates, the city would need to increase its police force by more than half to occupy all the drug lords’ territory.

The strains of not deploying enough police are already visible in Rocinha, the locals claim. Although the state governor says Rocinha will receive a UPP next year, for the moment it will have to make do with patrols by Bope.

Residents claim life was more secure under the ADA, the gang that ruled Rocinha and which prohibited theft. Fabiana França, the six-months-pregnant owner of a small clothes shop down one of Rocinha’s dark alleyways, says a neighbour was recently assaulted and had her Christmas bonus stolen.

“Safer? No, it’s less safe! All the police go home about 8pm or 9pm,” she says. “I’ve now put up bars on my windows where I live.”

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Paraty-An Undiscovered Brasilian Jewel

2011-12-22T04:37:00.001-08:00

December 16, 2011 9:57 pm

Southern gem

By Lucia van der Post

Surrounded by rainforest on the Brazilian coast, Paraty has a sleepy appearance that hides a buzzing social scene

Charming: A church in Paraty, seen from the water

You’d be unlikely to go all the way to Brazil specially to spend time in Paraty, unless you had a house there or were extraordinarily well clued up, but if you’re heading that way you’d be very foolish to give it a miss. For Paraty is special. It’s a little gem that has survived as an almost perfectly preserved colonial town entirely because of the wayward turns of history.

Paraty had the good luck to have had a short period of great grandeur during the 18th century when all the gold from the inland mines had to pass through its sheltered harbour and all its glorious villas and splendid churches were built. The gold route, the remains of which can still be seen and are worth visiting, followed the old Indian trails down from the mining towns to the port.

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Then the indigenous Indians began to attack the gold carriers on the mountain trails and soon a new route had to be built linking the old mining towns of Minas Gerais directly to Rio. Paraty’s moment of glory had passed and modern life, with its attendant high-rise buildings and over-development, passed it by. Until the late 1950s the only way to reach it was to walk or go by boat. During the 1950s and 1960s it was discovered by new age hippies and in the 1980s and 1990s well-heeled Brazilians and foreigners who fell in love with it began to restore the houses.

Which is why Paraty is still a perfectly preserved 18th-century colonial town. Much of its charm lies in the homogeneity of the architecture, which contrives to give it an air of great tranquillity and “settledness”. “And, best of all,” as Simon Clift, the owner of the house I stayed in, puts it, “it hasn’t been sterilised through mass foreign tourism like so many European towns, which may have gained three red stars in the Michelin guide but in the meantime have lost their soul. Paraty ... remains a vibrant town with real people living in its midst.”

It lies in lovely country on the coast 160 miles west of Rio and three to four hours by car from São Paulo (though on Fridays the air buzzes as fashionable Paulistanos and Cariocas with weekend houses or parties to go to fly in by helicopter or private plane). The rainforest comes right down to the edge of the town and Paraty looks out across a watery heaven, a usually blissful sea and 300 small islands around which the tourist is free to wander. There are two tropical fjords in Brazil and both are in Paraty. These days it is a Unesco world heritage site and it is said to be the hardest place in Brazil, outside the Amazon, to get planning permission to build.

Go when the weather is great (much of the time but particularly in the Southern hemisphere’s summer, between October and May), spend your days wandering round the islands, messing around in boats, swimming when you feel like it and, then by night, drop back into your pousada or, best of all, into one of the enchanting houses that are available to rent.

You must stay awhile to get the measure of the place. It has a languorous air, as if nobody is in too much of a hurry. The streets are cobbled, cars are forbidden and at high tide some of the sea washes in. The streets are lined with elegant looking houses but the real charm lies behind the closed doors.

Open them and you like as not enter an enchanted garden – fruit trees heavy with avocados, mangos, pawpaws, bougainvillea lending colour to the bright green of the jungly plants and hummingbirds darting in and out. There might well be a pool and often a fountain. Many of these wonderful houses are owned by foreigners who came, saw and fell in love. Now they rent them out when they’re not in town. Liz Calder, the co-founder of Bloomsbury Publishing, for instance, bought a house there and founded a literary festival that happens every year in July and bringing a whole different crowd to enjoy the charms of this small seaside town.

Historic: A typical street in the historic town of Paraty

The houses to rent vary but the best of them come complete with every kind of service. The one I stayed in, The Colonial House, had been beautifully put together; a grand main bedroom and huge ensuite bathroom, and three other good bedrooms. If you were a big party you could ask to take over one of the other houses owned by Clift (who was chief marketing officer at Unilever before leaving London last year to spend more time here). He is known to have the best cook in the town and she and her team look after everything from breakfast out on a terrace filled with flowers, trees and birds eating the tropical fruits, to dinner parties (you might feel obliged to return some of the hospitality you will undoubtedly be showered with), boat trips, massages at the local spa, sorting out the chauffeuring, the internet connections, music and all the rest.

You could also rent the house of the pretender to the Brazilian throne, Prince João de Orleans e Bragança. It is right on the sea front, a wonderfully elegant, though not enormously grand, house that his father bought after falling in love with Paraty. It is filled with the faded relics of another, long gone age, grand portraits, sepia photographs, fine furniture with an elegaic beauty of its own. It comes, as all the best houses do, with help and cooks, and, if you want them, with concierges who will fix everything from boats to picnics.

Out in the tropical fjord are wonderfully grand and beautiful houses to rent on the waterfront, where you have peace, privacy, exquisite views and usually a boat and a boatman who will take you back to the town as well as all round the coastline. Though they’re not cheap (prices vary from about $4,000 to $11,000 a day), if you divide it between lots of friends it is surprising value, for they come with every comfort and one can’t overestimate the beauty of the place. All around is blissful, unpolluted sea and glimpses of other islands.

Across the water from the fjord, looking over to the mainland, lie rolling hills and mountains covered in rainforest. From time to time a fisherman’s boat comes by. There are hundreds of other islands to explore, some of them have restaurants, some are nature reserves inhabited by tamarind monkeys, yet others have private houses.

All along the harbour are colourful boats that can be hired, with a boatman, at prices from about £100 for a small rough boat up to about £220 for a big, beautifully equipped vessel. Food and drink is extra. Clift’s adopted son Cleberson has a very luxurious schooner, the Dona Geralda, which will take you to quiet, unvisited beaches, and on which you will have smashing food.

You should spend one day going by boat to the traditional village of Juatinga, where fishermen’s families have lived their simple maritime life for generations. If you were energetic you could hike there and arrange to be picked up by boat for the journey back. You should spend another going to see the gold trail and the remains of the cobbled route that the Portuguese laid over the Indian trails.

Paraty lacks a beautiful beach – but Lopes Mendes, on Ilha Grande (the biggest island in the bay), is a beauty and a short car journey away are two famous surfing spots, Trindade and Praia da Fazenda. You should take lunch at one of the simplest but loveliest restaurants in the world – Restaurante do Ostra, in the first fjord. Here Dadico Valdir, who’s lived there all his life, grilled us fish he’d caught that morning accompanied by manioc chips (very delicious) and for pudding he pulled down a fruta pão (breadfruit) from a nearby tree. All for about £10 a head with a caipirinha (Brazil’s national drink, made from cachaca, which is a sugar cane rum, sugar and lime) included.

And then, though the town itself has plenty of cute little restaurants, don’t miss out on the Bistro Amigos, another enchanting little eatery, up in among the tropical jungle, a 10-minute journey by car from the town, to which Clift took me and some of his friends one night. Run by a local garden nurseryman, there are just two tables for six set under an awning in what seems like a green bower. The chef brings you what he’s cooked that day – delicious little parcels of fish and vegetables and he always finishes off with cinnamon-coated, deep-fried bananas. Flowers bedeck every dish and the bill (about £20 a head) comes in a basket with an orchid.

Behind the closed doors, too, there’s an active and surprisingly sophisticated social life. You really need to get to know Clift, who these days devotes his post-working life to a new young adopted Brazilian family, educating by my count something like 15 young children in the town, funding houses for his extended adopted family, supporting schools and heavens knows what else. He knows everybody and everybody knows him. I had the great good luck firstly to be renting his lovely house and secondly to bump into him in the harbour, where he took me under his wing and introduced me to his exotic playmates – ex-models from Paris, poets, artists, duchesses and princelings with mittel-european titles, people from around the world who spend three or four months a year in Paraty.

In Paraty meeting people doesn’t take long and so before you know it you know half the town. Just make sure you bump into Clift along the harbour wall.

.......................................................................

Details

Lucia van der Post was a guest of Cazenove and Loyd (www.cazloyd.com), which offers seven nights at The Colonial House in Paraty from £2,915 per person, including breakfast and transfers (or £3,765 including flights from London to São Paolo)

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The Peruvian President's Balancing Act

2011-12-02T07:54:00.001-08:00

The Peruvian President's Labor Balancing Act

December 2, 2011 | 1230 GMT

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Andean people protesting the Conga mine in Cajamarca, Peru, on Nov. 24

Summary

Peru’s president might not attend various regional summits so that he can focus on a mining dispute at home. The dispute over the Conga gold mining project is just one of many labor disputes in negotiation between Lima and the largely poor, indigenous masses. The president’s challenge will be to find a middle path between placating his supporters — thus scaring off foreign investment — or cracking down on the protesters, which would alienate his base.

Analysis

Peruvian President Ollanta Humala might not attend a summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean states in Caracas on Dec. 2 or the Pacific Alliance meeting in Mexico City from Dec. 4 to Dec. 5, Peruvian Foreign Minister Rafael Roncagliolo said Dec. 1 as he left for Caracas. Instead, Humala may stay in Peru to take part in ongoing negotiations with the communities of Cajamarca, whose violent protests have halted the $4.8 billion Conga gold mining project. Despite the suspension of the project by U.S. mining company Newport, the major investor in the Yanacocha consortium in charge of the proposed mine, the protesters have vowed to continue until the government formally ends the project.

The failure of the Conga project is an ominous sign not only for Humala’s capacity to contain his base, but also for the precedent it sets.

Locals object to the consortium’s plan to use three different lakes in the area for drainage and processing. Lima approved the plan in 2010 despite its expected environmental impact; local communities were not heavily involved in the planning process. The Cajamarca/Conga protests began Nov. 3, halted Nov. 9 per a 15-day suspension agreed to with the government, and heated back up Nov. 24. After six days of violent protests, Newport announced its withdrawal Nov. 30, citing the Peruvian government’s failure to meet its obligations. Protests have continued in Cajamarca and Celendin (near the mine), and protesters have said they will expand the protests to the cities of Arequipa, Cuzco and Puno, which was wracked with violence in the lead-up to Humala’s election.

The cancellation of the Conga project is not particularly unusual given Peru’s often-volatile relationship with foreign investment. Still, it represents a significant shift in the political conditions Peru’s left-wing president faces. Since his June 5 election, Humala has worked to reassure foreign investors that, despite his place on the political spectrum, he values the economic growth foreign investment brings to Peru. Humala has not only sought to reassure investors, but to maintain credibility with Peru’s substantial right-wing political parties, which together hold a majority in the legislature. Without the help of parties like Alejandro Toledo’s Peru Posible, Humala’s Gana Peru party lacks the votes to pass initiatives.

To his base, largely consisting of poor, indigenous Peruvians, Humala has urged patience and advocated expanding social aid and encouraging investment. But as the protests in Cajamarca and elsewhere in Peru seem to demonstrate, Humala’s base has grown tired of waiting, and Humala seems to have lost substantial credibility. Without significant leverage over protesting communities, it will be difficult for Humala to negotiate in good faith.

(click here to enlarge image)

In fact, Humala finds himself in much the same position as his predecessor, former Peruvian President Alan Garcia. Under Garcia’s watch, protests forced the government to suspend the license of Southern Copper Corp.’s Tia Maria project in May. Given his platform of income redistribution and catering to the indigenous masses — which typically constitute the bulk of protesters — Humala had the potential to change the government’s relationship with these communities, but this is now in doubt. More ominously for Humala’s efforts to reassure foreign investors, the protesters’ success at stopping the Conga project demonstrates to communities across Peru — where hundreds of active and dormant disputes simmer — that violent protest is an effective means of forcing change. It also establishes that Humala is incapable of stopping them or of offering sufficient incentives to peaceful negotiation.

So far, Humala appears to have adopted a strategy of seeking to prolong or delay negotiations, while personally staying away from the majority of the action. In the lead-up to Newport’s decision, Humala said he would not meet protesters until they already had decided they would compromise with the government. Humala has instead relied heavily on his council of ministers, particularly Peruvian Prime Minister Salomon Lerner, to negotiate with community leaders. Though this may keep him above the fray, the strategy’s failure makes him appear distant, uninvolved and unable to control his base.

Humala is trapped between two difficult choices. On the one hand, he could capitulate to his supporters and risk losing control of the country’s legislative agenda and hampering the foreign investment currently projected at $50 billion in mining alone over the next decade. On the other hand, he can resort to the hard-handed tactics of governments before him, alienating his base altogether. And more than the mining sector will challenge Humala. Port workers, cocaleros (growers of coca, the precursor of cocaine), natural gas workers and labor groups in general appear poised to challenge him over various grievances.

Though the Cajamarca protests are the most significant at the moment, more than 200 conflicts are in negotiation between local communities and various economic interests. These include:

Apurimac: Farmers in Apurimac have been protesting the activities of wildcat miners, claiming the miners are polluting local water sources and damaging crops. The protest began Nov. 3 and continued through Nov. 14. A government delegation traveled to Andahuaylas city Nov. 9-10 to negotiate with community leaders, but the negotiations failed when Peruvian Agriculture Minister Miguel Caillaux Zazzali refused to agree to a blanket ban on mining in the region. The city erupted into riots that left dozens injured. The protests have cost the region $145 million, according to regional Chamber of Commerce Vice President Augusto Fernandez-Cabero, who also alleged that the protests have been infiltrated by outside interests, including supporters of former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance) and the Peru Teachers Union. Apurimac Regional President Elias Segovia said Dec. 1 that an extremist wing of the District Board of Irrigation Users of Andahuaylas is likely to renew violent protests, an outcome that appears likely in the absence of a comprehensive agreement.

Puno: The situation in Puno is quiet at the moment. However, the city was the center of massive unrest over the summer until Humala came into office. Humala met Oct. 18 with the Puno regional president for more than five hours to discuss development projects in the region. The meeting seems to have calmed issues but the city remains in a delicate balance. If protesters in Cajamarca are serious about reaching out to people in Puno, there is a significant risk of unrest.

Ancash: The San Marcos community in the Ancash region experienced protests Nov. 11 that resulted in eight people being injured. Protesters are demonstrating against pollution caused by local mining operations. Earlier in November, protesters temporarily invaded a mining duct pumping station outside Antamina, one of the world’s top copper-zinc mines. Protesters also tried to occupy roads, one day after police fired tear gas to clear blockades on major highways.

Wildcat Miners: Wildcat miners also have issues at stake in the region. Growing pressure against illegal mining has pushed various miner groups to stage their own protests, pressuring the government to allow them to mine freely. These protests range in size and frequency. An estimated 4,000 miners protested Dec. 1 against a government crackdown on illegal mining in Puerto Maldonado, Madre de Dios region. That same day, 700 miners from Caramarca, Palpa and Otoca, in Peru’s Huancavelica region, blocked the southern Pan-American Highway in Nasca, in the Ica region, near the 440-kilometer (273-mile) point.

Given the political dangers he faces on all sides, Humala probably will continue to seek a middle way between cracking down on unrest and capitulating to the left. Though this will allow him to avoid serious political pain in the short term, it will embolden protest and encourage unrest throughout Peru for years to come.

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Two Americans Murdered 38 Years AgoIn Chile-The Murderers Are Brought To Justice!

2011-11-30T13:21:00.000-08:00

CHILEAN JUDGE REQUESTS EXTRADITION OF U.S. MILITARY OFFICIAL IN "MISSING" CASE

Capt. Ray Davis Indicted in Chile for alleged role in murder of Charles Horman, Frank Teruggi

Declassified U.S. Documents Used Extensively in Court Indictment

Archive Posts Documents cited in Indictment, including FBI Intelligence Reports Containing Teruggi's Address in Chile

National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 366
Edited by Peter Kornbluh and Erin Maskell

Posted - November 30, 2011
For more information contact:
Peter Kornbluh - 202/374-7281
peter.kornbluh@gmail.com

The Pinochet File: A Declassified Dossier on Atrocity and AccountabilityBy Peter Kornbluh
A Los Angeles Times
Best Nonfiction Book of 2003

Washington D.C., November 30, 2011 – Thirty-eight years after the military coup in Chile, a Chilean judge has formally indicted the former head of the U.S. Military Group, Captain Ray Davis, and a Chilean intelligence officer, Pedro Espinoza for the murders of two American citizens in September 1973. The judge, Jorge Zepeda, said he would ask the Chilean Supreme Court to authorize an extradition request for Davis as an "accessory" to the murders of Charles Horman and Frank Teruggi.Both Horman and Teruggi were seized separately at their homes in Santiago by Chilean soldiers and subsequently executed while in detention. Their murders, and the seeming indifference of U.S. officials, were immortalized in the Oscar-award winning movie "Missing" which focused on the search by Horman's wife and father for him in the weeks following the U.S.-supported coup.
The indictment accused the U.S. MilGroup of passing intelligence to the Chilean military on the "subversive" activities of Teruggi that contributed to his arrest; it stated that Davis "was in a position" to stop the executions "given his coordination with Chilean agents" but did not do so.
In his indictment, Judge Zepeda cited a number of declassified U.S. government documents as the basic foundation for the case-although none of them tie Davis or Espinoza to the crimes. "These documents are providing the blocks for building a case in these famous killings," said Peter Kornbluh who directs the Chile Documentation Project at the Archive, "but they do not provide a smoking gun." To successfully advance court proceedings as well as a successful extradition request, according to Kornbluh, the judge will have to present concrete evidence of communications between U.S. and Chilean military officers regarding Horman and Teruggi prior to their detentions and their deaths.
The Archive today posted a number of the documents cited in the indictment, including key FBI memos that contained Frank Teruggi's Santiago address, as well as other records relevant to the Horman and Teruggi case. The documents derive from an indexed collection: Chile and the United States: U.S. Policy toward Democracy, Dictatorship, and Human Rights, 1970-1990. The collection, just published this week by the Archive and Proquest, contains over 180 documents on the Horman and Teruggi case.

Read the Documents:

Document 1
Department of State, SECRET Memorandum, "Charles Horman Case," August 25, 1976
This memo by three state department officers implies that the U.S. government could have prevented the murder of Charles Horman. The memo, written after a review of the files on the case, explains that there is "circumstantial evidence" to suggest "U.S. intelligence may have played an unfortunate part in Horman's death. At best, it was limited to providing or confirming information that helped motivate his murder by the GOC. At worst, U.S. intelligence was aware the GOC saw Horman in a rather serious light and U.S. officials did nothing to discourage the logical outcome of GOC paranoia." When this document was initially declassified pursuant to a FOIA lawsuit filed by the Horman family, this critical passage was blacked out. The document was released without redaction in 1999. It was not cited in Judge Zepeda's indictment, but appears to reflect the judicial argument he is pursuing.
Document 2
Department of State, SECRET, "Charles Horman Case: Gleanings,"(Undated but written in August 1976)
This detailed chronology, based on a review of files available to the State Department, contains key information on what the U.S. knew and did in the case of Charles Horman. It also evaluates the possible role of the U.S. in the murder. The document cites the admissions of a Chilean intelligence agent, Rafael Gonzalez, who told U.S. reporters the story of Horman being interrogated in General Augusto Lutz's office and then killed because "he knew too much." Gonzalez claimed there was an American in the room when the interrogation took place, but decades later he would recant that story. In January 2004, he was indicted by Judge Zepeda in the Horman case as an "accessory to murder" for his role in the interrogation, death and secret burial of Charles Horman.
Document 3
United States Embassy, Unclassified Notice, "Missing United States Citizen," October 9, 1973
This document cited in the indictment, states that the U.S. government has received a note from the Chilean Foreign Office dated October 3, 1973, recording that Charles Horman was detained at the National Stadium on September 20 for a curfew violation but had been released on September 21 for "lack of merit." The document includes a photograph of Horman, his date of birth, address in Chile, and fingerprint classification. Horman was actually detained at his home on September 17, 1973.
Document 4
Department of State, Memorandum (classification excised), "Film by Charles Horman," April 12, 1974
In this memo to Assistant Secretary Harry Shlaudeman, State Department officer George Lister describes the film work of Charles Horman. A film that he apparently worked on before the coup was completed after the coup by friends titled "Chile: With Poems and Guns." (The document leaves the impression that Charles "made" the film, but clearly he did not work on it following the coup.) The film describes Chilean history, and the achievements of the Allende government, along with alleged atrocities of the coup and U.S. involvement. Lister goes so far as to imply that Horman's film making in Chile could have been what "led to his death."
Document 5
Chilean Armed Forces, Memorandum, "Antecedentes sobre Fallecimiento de 2 ciudadanos norteamericanos," Octobeer 30, 1973
Chief of Chilean Military Intelligence Service General Augusto Lutz reports on the death of Charles Horman and Frank Teruggi. He asserts that Horman and Teruggi were political extremists attempting to discredit Chilean junta. While he acknowledges that they were both detained by the Chilean military, he maintains that they were later released and that the Chilean military was not involved in their deaths. The document is the only information known to have been provided by the Chilean military to the U.S. embassy after the disappearance of Horman and Teruggi.
Document 6
U.S. Military Group Chile, Memorandum (classification unknown), "Case of Charles Horman," January 14, 1975
Ray Davis forwards a list of documents on the interactions of the U.S. Military Group in Chile with Charles Horman to be provided to the General Accounting Office. The documents raise the issue of the role of embassy officials in the disappearance and death of Horman, and make "certain allegations and statements about members of the Navy Mission, in Valparaiso; comments about a ride given by COMUSMILGP, Captain Davis."
Document 7
Department of State, CONFIDENTIAL Memorandum, "Horman Case," April 20, 1987
This memorandum of conversation reports on an informant who has appeared at the Embassy to give testimony on the death of Charles Horman. According to this informant, Horman was seized by Chilean intelligence units and taken to the Escuela Militar for questioning. He was then transferred to the National Stadium, where they determined he was an extremist. He was forced to change clothes, shot three times, and his body was dumped on the street to appear he had died in a confrontation. The informant said that "the person at the stadium who made the decision on who was to die was Pedro Espinoza, of later DINA fame." The document is the first to tie Pedro Espinoza to the Horman case. He was involved in military intelligence and detainees at the time of the coup. However, the commander of the National Stadium at the time was another military officer named Jorge Espinosa Ulloa.
Document 8
United States Embassy Santiago, CONFIDENTIAL cable, '[Excised] Reports on GOC Involvement in Death of Charles Horman, Asks Embassy for Asylum and Aid,' April 28, 1987

In a report on the informant's information, the Embassy cables Washington with his account of Horman's death. Horman was picked up in a routine sweep, the informant suggests, and was found in possession of "extremist" materials. He was then taken the National Stadium where he was interrogated and later executed on the orders of Pedro Espinoza. Embassy officials note that his story "corresponds with what we know about the case and the [Chilean government] attempt to cover up their involvement," suggesting that the informant is probably telling the truth. In later cables, the Embassy begins to question the credibility of the informant who is never identified.
Document 9
FBI, SECRET Memorandum, [Frank Teruggi's Contact with Anti-War Activist], October 25, 1972
This FBI report cites information provided by "another U.S. government agency" on Frank Teruggi's contacts with an anti-war activist who resides in West Germany. The report also contains his address in Santiago. The document was generated by surveillance of a U.S. military intelligence unit in Munich on an American anti-war dissident who was in contact with Teruggi. The FBI subsequently decides to open a file on Teruggi. This series of FBI documents were cited by Judge Zepeda in his indictment which infers-but offers no proof-- that intelligence from them was shared with Chilean military intelligence in the days following the coup.
Document 10
FBI, SECRET Memorandum, "Frank Teruggi," October 25, 1972
This FBI memorandum requests investigation of Frank Teruggi and the Chicago Area Group for the Liberation of Americas of which he was a member nearly a year prior to his death following the Chilean coup.
Document 11
FBI, SECRET Memorandum, "[Excised] SM- Subversive," November 28, 1972

This FBI document again requests investigation on Teruggi based on his contact with a political activist in West Germany. The document mentions that Teruggi is living in Chile editing a newsletter "FIN" of Chilean information for the American left, and that he is closely affiliated with the Chicago Area Group for the Liberation of Americas.
Document 12
FBI, Memorandum (classification unknown), "Frank Teruggi," December 14, 1972
This FBI memorandum demonstrates ongoing efforts to gather information on Frank Teruggi in the year proceeding the Chilean coup. Here, the FBI reports on his attendance at a conference of returned Peace Corps volunteers and his membership in political organizations supporting socialism and national liberation movements in Latin America.

New Undersea Cable To Link Latin America To The Rest Of The World

2011-11-26T05:56:00.001-08:00

TELECOMS

New undersea cable to connect Africa with three continents

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By: Natasha Odendaal

25th November 2011

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A new Atlantic Ocean undersea fibre-optic cable project to connect Africa, South America, North America and Europe, has been launched.

Wasace Cable Company Worldwide will build and operate the new undersea cable, which was said to be the first trans-Atlantic system to deploy the next generation 100 G technology - ten times the capacity of previous systems.

The Wasace project, which comprised a total fibre length seven times the earth’s circumference, would enable access to a previously unavailable quantity of affordable Internet communication capacity. It would also connect the rapidly growing markets of Africa and Latin America with the commercial markets of North America and Europe, through the first-ever high-capacity cable to span the South Atlantic.

The new, diverse cable routes included Wasace North, connecting Europe to North America; Wasace South, connecting South America to Africa; Wasace America, connecting South America to North America; and Wasace Africa, connecting Nigeria, Angola and South Africa.

Private equity investment firm VIP Must would provide Wasace's financing and marketing and media strategy, as well as institutional support. Other investors included the African Development Bank and a number of Brazilian groups.

US-based international communication systems development group David Ross Group has been elected to manage the project development.

Wasace Cable Company Worldwide Holding, led by chairperson and CEO Ramón Gil-Roldán y Sansón, was formed to meet the rapidly evolving needs of developing markets in the Southern Hemisphere.

Edited by: Mariaan Webb

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National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 366
Edited by Peter Kornbluh and Erin Maskell

Posted - November 30, 2011
For more information contact:
Peter Kornbluh - 202/374-7281
peter.kornbluh@gmail.com